Post war Transitional Kit Gun; WOW!

[CALREB]

Wow those 22's are in great condition.You know, yes, that sounds like alot of money, but Im sure their arent alot of those sitting around in that condition. If they like it and it fits in their collection, and then they can sit around and enjoy it with their friends , I say way to go. Ive got a couple sittin in the safe that you couldnt get from me for 2,000 or more, within reason.
Are they rare, well kinda, but you could get them from someone for that price, but not mine. Cause I enjoy them, showing them,owning them and when they are gone, then the money would just go on something else. So I understand. I see all these great condition old revolvers, even 70-80-90s going for alot in the future, cause they arent ever going to be made again. So you better get them now, if you want em.Those 22's are a neat lil gun. Take care Bob

 

[DCWilson]

Coming late to this discussion because of an internet outage that has finally been resolved with a new DSL modem and a service line adjustment. Thank you Verizon!

I still believe in gradualism in valuation increases, and I think some recent Kit Gun sale prices are outliers; I doubt they are creating a new price floor, though newly optimistic sellers may take a while to realize the point.

I put in a bid on this gun at what I thought was a better than decent level, but two other guys just raced right past me in their quest for the prize. If either one of them had not been in the game, the other would have had it for nearly $2000 less and only a little over my bid; I was willing to pay a little over the trend line for this gun, but not a lot more. The second place finisher this time was the guy who took the prewar Kit Gun at over $5000 the week before. Looks like there are at least a few buyers out there with deep pockets and big hunger.

Unless these buyers are into dollar cost averaging, I suspect that with their almost new specimens in hand, they may not compete for similar pieces in the future. I'd hope so; I'd still like to think that I might be able to get a postwar transitional KG for no more than what I bid for this one, and maybe even a little bit less.

Then again, I could be an uninformed idiot given over to wishful thinking and who has not yet realized that Kit Gun prices will never, ever come down again.

 

[bmg60]

David
I believe that the Transition kit guns are worth at least 30% more than a
equal prewar kit gun because there are a lot less Transitions for sale.
How many have you seen for sale in the last 2 years?
Jim Fisher

 

[Sprefix]

Is there no end? I gotta start eating ramen noodles and stolen restaurant crackers to buy all of the incredible guns Smith made. The belt-line and safe will be a little happier in the process.

 

[DCWilson]

David
I believe that the Transition kit guns are worth at least 30% more than a
equal prewar kit gun because there are a lot less Transitions for sale.
How many have you seen for sale in the last 2 years?
Jim Fisher

Only two, and they traded hands for less than prewar KGs in comparable condition. I understand that markets usually manifest a value/scarcity correlation, but I'm not sure we can make a rule out of that. To show how scarce data can be differently interpreted, I have been of the opinion that the postwar transitional KGs, despite their unquestioned scarcity, would trade hands at a 25-30% discount to the prewar specimens. Two more sales like the one just completed, and I'll change my mind.

 

[Hondo44]

Only two, and they traded hands for less than prewar KGs in comparable condition. I understand that markets usually manifest a value/scarcity correlation, but I'm not sure we can make a rule out of that. To show how scarce data can be differently interpreted, I have been of the opinion that the postwar transitional KGs, despite their unquestioned scarcity, would trade hands at a 25-30% discount to the prewar specimens. Two more sales like the one just completed, and I'll change my mind.

David,

I have a similar take on it: to the general collector, and I'll put myself in that category, anything pre war has a high desirability factor. In the case at hand, I for one have a greater interest in a pre war Kit Gun. A comparison of "Blue Book" price premium percentages for superior specimens of pre wars vs. post wars reflect that. And I felt it agreed with observed pre war sale prices.

However the recent post war transitional sale price as you indicate reflects an anomoly. Either forum discussions and/or recognition of their greater scarcity has increased market demand or perceived value to some bidders/buyers which may reverse the price differential if continued. Personally I don't mind paying less for my preferred pre wars but won't be adding a transitional to the herd if they continue to orbit in outer space.

 

[Recoil Rob]

I couldn't find your thread again, do you have a link?

A 4 digit # would be an early Model of 1953 shipped in the '53 to '55 era with a 4 screw sideplate (a 4 screw gun since the screw in front of the trigger guard was eliminated with the introduction of the Model of 1953).

P.S. Found it, an I frame with the J size grip frame and stocks. The Model 1953 was the next model following the post war 22/32 transitionals with several improvements.

http://smith-wessonforum.com/s-w-hand-ejectors-1896-1961/216271-kit-gun-elegance.html

So that gun would be numbered in the same sequence as my pre-43 KG Airweight?

 

[Green Frog]

I think H-44 hit it... the final price of an item will be a function of supply and demand, and although in the larger population of collectors and speculators, the "pre-War" label was the easily recognized and acknowledged one, it reflects demand. Now that some of us (and I acknowledge my own blame for this too) have made such an issue of the rarity of post-War transitional pieces, they have acquired a special cachet of their own. Whether there will be sufficient sustained interest in the esoteric differences of variants and subvariants, or whether the larger model differences and condition (which is almost always a dominant factor in specimen value) will be the ongoing order of the day is crystal ball territory, and mine STILL is foggy!

I will say I watched speculators drive British sports car prices through the stratosphere and beyond, only to experience a major market drop, but unless there are other factors at work, this is the exception rather than the rule. Again, the foregoing is JMHO and should be taken with sufficient salt!

Froggie

 

[BlackAgnes]

Our predictions, speculations and estimates of dollar value for all these pre-war and "transitional" guns are, predictably, colored by whether or not we own them.

Those of us who do surely hope for stratospheric prices, and those of us who don't ( but would like to!) would like those prices to moderate to the point where a workin' man could afford one...

If recent realized auction prices prove anything, it's that all it takes to boost prices is a motivated buyer (or two) with deep pockets, who REALLY wants what we have to sell.

Don't we all know people like that?

Tim

 

[bmg60]

hi
I have two of these Transition kit guns and I don't plan on selling them
at any time in the future because I have two sons that will get them.
So it does not matter to me how much the ones that come up for sale
bring. My only point is this. as David said in his post only two have come up for sale in the last couple of years so that means these models are a lot more scarce than the prewar models.
Jim Fisher

 

[Hondo44]

So that gun would be numbered in the same sequence as my pre-43 KG Airweight?

Yes it would. The Model of 1953 new I frame serial # range beginning with #101.