Apples to apples barrel and chamber length with a 1.9" J-frame would be a 3.5" 9mm like an M&P 1.0 9C.
And, wouldn't you know it, you can compare how a whole bunch of .357 loads did in velocity and Clear Gel tests from a 2" K6S and a 4" GP100 to how some 9mm loads from an M&P9C!
Lucky Gunner did the work. The 357 rounds that were very close to matching the performance of 9mm HST 124, 124 +P, or 147 +P, from a short barrel were 125 gr Golden Sabre and the non-short barrel Barnes 140 gr XPB. Most others either didn't expand as big, or if they did, they didn't penetrate as deep.
Also, I just chronographed some 10 shot strings from my 3.1" Shield Plus today using an Athlon radar chronograph.
Averages:
Federal HST 124 gr: 1084 fps, 324 ft-lbs
Federal HST 124gr +P: 1130 fps, 352 ft-lbs
Ranger Bonded 124 gr +P: 1105 fps, 336 ft-lbs
Going by Speer's 2" test barrel data, Gold Dot 135 gr Short barrel is good for 990 fps and 294 lb-ft, making it less powerful than any of the 9mm JHP I chronographed.
Lucky Gunner exceeded Speer's rated velocity with 1069 fps from Speer .357 135 gr Short Barrel, making for 343 ft-lbs, which is
still less energy than HST 124 +P made from my Shield Plus.
However, I would not necessarily consider that representative of a J-frame with 6% less barrel (not counting chamber). With Winchester Ranger Bonded 38 Special130 gr +P, my 442UC averaged 887 fps to the 904 fps that my LCP averaged. This surprised me, as my 4 S&W .38 Special revolvers (10-6, 64-7, 442UC, 642UC) are less amenable to out of spec reloads than my .38 Special LCR is, suggesting tighter chambers in the S&Ws, but I haven't shelled out for pin gauges to make sure.
Now, if you want to talk about 'one shot stop' lore, Darryl Bolke has said that when California looked in to it, those 'one shot stops' tended to be at close range, at night, and from 4" or shorter barrels, suggesting a flash bang like psychological effect from the muzzle blast.
My conjecture is also that .357 Magnums were more likely to be used by agencies with higher shooting standards, and compared to municipal agencies with lower shooting standards. Many of them were still using .38 Special 158 gr LRN before the 158 gr +P LSWCHP 'FBI load' caught on in the 1970s.