..so where is all the ammo?

[SuperMan]

This has probably been beaten to death elsewhere but I have a question...

I have heard interviews with and read reports from representatives of the big ammo companies who say they are making ammo 24/7...ok..so where is it? Some people say people are buying it up and hoarding..but I have a minor problem with that.

For people to hoard ammo thy have to be buying ammo from dealers who have ammo... For dealers to have ammo they have to buy it from a distributor... Now don't know about you but no gun shops around here have any pistol ammo and .308, .223 and 7.62x39 is mostly gone also... But dealers don't have ammo not because they are sold out..it is because they can't get any...and they can't get any not because of demand...but because the BIG distributors are not getting ANY shipments from the manufacturers...

The Distributor is the first link in the pipeline from the manufacturer...so my question is WHY aren't distributors getting any of this ammo that is being made 24/7?

I deal with two of the largest distributors in the US. One of my reps told me last week that they obtained more PRVI from Serbia than they did from all the domestic manufacturers combined. My other rep told me he has more ammo on his cellar stairs than has come through the warehouse door in the last two months from the domestic manufacturers.

...so...where is all the ammo?

Bob Makowski

 

[GatorFarmer]

DHS bought up a bunch recently, and placed contracts for still more. According to one account that I read, commercial sales actually represent only a small portion of the business done by Olin and ATK. A big chunk is supposedly devoted to LE lines and government contracts. After that comes a couple of big accounts like Walmart and Gander Mountain, and only then comes the rest of the distributors.

Another story is that production is tapped out all the way down the supply chain of ingredients. Problem with that theory, if it was the case, is that you'd think that the ammo makers would have to idle factories after using up their components and waiting for more.

 

[Andy Griffith]

How do you know that distributors aren't getting ammunition?

If their business is anything like the poultry and egg distribution business, which I am more familiar with...

If a customer during "good times" was buying 35% of my product, and times got tight, I'd still send 35% of my production to that customer- that is if he kept his bill paid, we had a good working relationship, and other factors. The same would go on down the line for my "regular" customers- even if they didn't purchase that much- but did so regularly. I always tried to treat my customers fairly, and never "shafted" them.

However, the people that didn't pay their bills (out of just not wanting to...I did have some "Mom and Pop" stores that bills went out 90days+ and still sent product, even when Hackney Carolina wouldn't! Why- because they were good people earning a living!), didn't regularly buy from me, or only called me when things got "tight" or they needed something (similar to a lot of friends

) I'd help out if I could, but would never "Rob Peter to pay Paul" so to speak. A couple of other gentlemen in the area went broke doing just that and selling off eggs and poultry at a higher price to someone that could pay more (back in the mid 1980's) and compromised the relationships that had been cultivated with their regular customers.

Just my two-cents.

The ammunition is there, it's just spread very, very thin at this time.

I do think that the conspiracy theorists are way off base for this subject.

Not say'n that they don't have a breath of truth every once'n awhile...

 

[guntownuncle]

Dang, now you have me thinking.

Is the military, law enforcement, homeland security, etc. really buying that much more than in 2004, for example? Maybe Wal-Mart buys alot, but then why is there so little on their shelves?

Even if I wanted to believe in a big conspiracy, I just don't see how it would work. I mean, how would they convince the manufacturers to lie about ramping up production if they aren't really ramping it up? Eventually they wouldn't be able to stand it and they'd start getting in on milking the cash cow. That, or someone with Olin or whoever would talk.

.

 

[7003006]

GatorFarmer,is it normal for DHS to buy ammunition?
Just wondering if the purchase is just business as usual or if it may be some sort of attempt to dry up ammo supply,possibly to keep people from stocking up before some ridiclous tax can be passed,possibly some more nefarious reason.

 

[Peter J.]

700, I like your thinking. Government is buying more because we are buying more? The war (literally) of the ammo buyers. Them vs. Us?

 

[GatorFarmer]

Originally posted by 7003006:
GatorFarmer,is it normal for DHS to buy ammunition?
Just wondering if the purchase is just business as usual or if it may be some sort of attempt to dry up ammo supply,possibly to keep people from stocking up before some ridiclous tax can be passed,possibly some more nefarious reason.

Its probably more or less normal business, but does take up capacity. Since imports haven't been restricted, I don't know that the supply is being deliberately restricted. If I were running things I'd cut off imports or make them more problematic.

 

[bloo]

On January 20th I ordered .45Colt brass from Champion Shooter Supply. Today May 8th I got an email saying that they "finally received some would you still like us to ship it". Checked Scheel's for some last week and they were out also. So it's not only loaded ammo primers and powder. Now it's down to brass also.

 

[mtb1bkr]

All the shops around me have most every caliber on the shelf. Walfart doesn't have much more than I think 40S&W and a few HV 22s, but the actual gun shops have ammo and they are not charging extremely high prices. They all say they have vendors who have it in stock so I don't know why everyone doesn't have some.

Bill

 

[gr8AmericanBash]

Originally posted by 7003006:
GatorFarmer,is it normal for DHS to buy ammunition?
Just wondering if the purchase is just business as usual or if it may be some sort of attempt to dry up ammo supply,possibly to keep people from stocking up before some ridiclous tax can be passed,possibly some more nefarious reason.

Was thinking the same thing.

On a sorta related tangent:
What are the chances Wal-Mart is doing the same thing? Keeping their stock up in the warehouses, and trickling it out a little at a time to the stores. So if/when the tax hike comes, they will still reap the rewards.

Wait, I guess they wouldn't see any extra profit from a tax hike, since it would go to gubment. Guess I answered my own question.
Or did I?

 

[s&wchad]

..so where is all the ammo?

There's a bit in my basement, but don't blame me for the current crisis. A lot of my ammo is older than some of our members! I try to "buy low" and I reload, so you won't see me buying at the current prices.

As I see it, there are a number of factors coming together to create the current ammo situation - not the least of which is fear of what the current administration will do in the way of restrictive legislation. People are stockpiling ammo, just in case.

- A majority of states now have shall issue laws and that wasn't so 10 years ago. A lot of folks who didn't own a gun now have several and they even practice occasionally to maintain their proficiency. Civilian demand is up.

- Government at all levels just keeps getting bigger. Discounting the military, I'm sure there are more armed local, state and federal personnel then ever before. They all have to put in range time. I remember reading last year that the FBI had awarded a contract for practice ammo. The numbers struck me as being amazing, because it was enough to shoot each person in the USA at least once!

- The ammo manufacturers were able to meet demand (at a pretty good price) up until about 6 months ago. New production facilities take a lot of capital and they don't pop up over night. If I was a manufacturer, I'd be very leery of large investments give the potential for technological advancements in cartridge design, possible lead bans, micro-stamping, and other hair brained schemes that could alter the industry. I'm sure they closely watched the lawsuits against the gun makers and cigarette companies too.

- The cost of raw material like copper, brass and lead were extremely high last year and that drove the price for a while. Since then, lead and copper have fallen to about half what they were, but when you sell it as fast as you can make it, there's little incentive to lower the price. I'm sure most businesses in the food chain are reaping as much profit as they can now, because their future is rather uncertain.

- Don't forget the war…

 

[Bullseye Smith]

There was a few companies that got brass from uncle sam and reloaded it and sold it back to them. That has been cut out, so they are buying new ammo for all of the troops now. Wallmart will get a shipment and one person will buy it all. The store near me got 100 boxes of 9mm in, this one butthead got 95 boxes of it. I asked him why he didn't take it all (Being a Smart Butt

) and he grin at me and said that was all he had money for. I lay odd's it when to a gun show and sold it for 100% mark-up.

 

[H Richard]

When you see people that had previously never owned a gun, buy a gun and several thousand rounds of ammo, "just because". Then multiply that by maybe a half million people, you have the beginning of the problem. Military orders are sucking the mfg's dry. I spoke with the president of a specialty ammo mfg. that produces for military contracts, and his backlog is presently 43 million rounds. He stated if he took no more orders the rest of the year, he could run full shifts and still not run out of work this year.

 

[walnutred]

My local outdoor range had a 50% increase in usage from 2207 to 2008 and so far in 2009 has shown a 100% usage from 2008. That does not tell the whole story though because that just count registered shooters. If I show up with my two children only I count even though all three of us shoot.

So their daily usage is probably actually up around 200% from 2007. Throw in a few hoarders and it is easy to see where the ammo is going.

 

[Jack Flash]

What are the chances Wal-Mart is doing the same thing? Keeping their stock up in the warehouses, and trickling it out a little at a time to the stores. So if/when the tax hike comes, they will still reap the rewards.

WalMart doesn't buy merchandise and then sit on it. Their business model is to turn it over ASAP.

H Richard is correct, IMHO. New gun buyers and gun owners who have been inactive for years started the shortage. Once the scarcity was perceived by the general gun-owning community, the run on ammo sellers began.

 

[n4zov]

I lay odd's it when to a gun show and sold it for 100% mark-up.

On a related topic, I think this is one reason we hear so many complaints about price gouging. If you were a dealer with those 100 boxes of ammo, why would you sell it at a low price only to see it sold the next day at a gun show for some inflated price? The dealer probably thinks that if somebody is going to sell at a high price, then why not him.

 

[ElToro]

no retailer is going to reap a reward from a tax hike, they will just psas the tax onto the .gov.

UNLESS the .gov is telling them to hold it out so tax revenue WILL go up when a new tax is in place... pass the tinfoil will ya ?

 

[crofoot629]

Maybe Wal-Mart buys alot, but then why is there so little on their shelves?

Wal-Mart does buy a lot, relatively speaking.
It's just not "a lot" when EVERYONE wants to buy more than they usually do all at once.

I expect that will change relatively soon, and supply will catch up with demand. It's really only been since some time AFTER the inauguration that ammo supplies got tight. There was no panic buying after November 8th. I remember being surprised. A month ago I bought 10 Federal 550 value packs at my local Wally's that I know had sat on the shelf for at least day. I haven't seen any since though. I ask the clerk, he tells me they get ammo on a regular basis but it doesn't last long.

Emory

 

[dave-arlington-va]

personally last year I had 2 handguns and a shotgun and a few hundred rounds of ammo. today I have added 2 more handguns and a rifle and have several thousand rounds of .223, 357 38 and 40. I bet there are many thousands of people just like me (and you) who have in their possesion lots more ammo than ever before. also here in Northern Virginia on weekends all the ranges are packed far more than previously from opening to closing time. classes for concealed carry are numerous and tending from what I can observe to be at capacity. it is I think simpy a classic demand vs. supply situation that will in time get caught up the only question being when.

 

[SuperMan]

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies..

Walmarts in NH got a load of ammo last weekend...they are now limiting sales to 6 or 8 boxes per customer..

Bob