The emperor has no clothes

[doublesharp]

You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows ~ Bob Dylan

BC38 wasn't showing off medical knowledge as much as he was showing his proficiency in math. Well said. Exponential data has always been hard for many to understand.

 

[BC38]

Where did you go to medical school?

I didn't, but I'm not talking about the biology, or trying to explain the mechanisms of the disease. Those are subjects for the doctors to discuss.

What I'm talking about is statistics. I'm an engineer, and applying math to the real world, and analyzing numbers is something I AM qualified to do.

Besides, there is nothing in what I posted that isn't just common sense if you think about it.

Here's a simple example of how the numbers work.
Suppose you have 10,000 infected with the virus.
But since it is something new, of those 10,000 infected only 1,000 have been tested and tested positive.
Of those 34 have died.

So, at this point you have 1,000 KNOWN cases and 34 dead - a 3.4% mortality rate for those known cases. OMG! 3.4% a mortality rate!

But in reality what you actually have is 10,000 infected, 9,000 of them undiagnosed, and 34 dead. Which gives you a true mortality rate of 34 per 10,000 or .34%

We KNOW there are a lot more people infected than have been tested and proven to have the virus. Hell, that is one of the things they're screaming about as a possible cause for it turning into a pandemic. That there are a lot of people infected wandering around with no symptoms infecting others, right?

We also know that at least 96.6% of the people infected with it survive. From those two things we know that there may be thousands, or maybe tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands who are infected or have already had it and got over it - an unknown number of them without ever being diagnosed.

So as I said, we don't know the actual mortality rate. We know the upper limit of what it could be - the 3.4% figure that the media is hyping. But since we have absolutely NO IDEA how many actual cases there are, we really only know that the true mortality rate can't be higher than that - and logically it has to be lower. Almost certainly a LOT lower. Like by a factor of 10 or even 100. Most likely it is somewhere in between.

The funny thing is this isn't even a new virus - the Israelis have already developed a prototype vaccine for coronavirus that is ready for clinical trials. How? Because just by coincidence some researchers there happened to already be working on a vaccine for this family of viruses long BEFORE the outbreak in China.

Anyway, I don't have to be a doctor to understand how numbers and statistics work. It's pretty common sense if a person just puts aside all the hype and panic and looks at it realistically instead.

Another point to ponder. Last I looked, not counting the cruise ship where almost everyone got it - over 95% of the cases detected so far are in China, Korea, and Japan. If you look at the map Korea is right there between mainland China and Japan. So 95% of the known cases are concentrated in that one geographic area. After nearly 2 months.

There have been 9 deaths in the US so far. One 50-something guy with other serious health problems, and the rest were all elderly residents of one nursing home. What groups suffer the most deaths from all flu strains? Oh yeah, that's right, the elderly and those with other serious health issues.

FWIW, that nursing home with the 8 deaths is right here in my home state. In Kirkland, right down the street from where I lived for 16 years in fact. The ninth death was a guy in Everett about 40 miles from the nursing home. Though in all fairness I don't live there anymore - I live 300 miles away from there now.

So, crunching the numbers and applying a little common sense, I'm not worried. Any more than I was about West Nile, Zika, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Ebola, Hantavirus, or even HIV. They have all been "the NEXT pandemic" - until none of them were.

 

[BC38]

I keep hearing the word "pandemic." Would anyone venture to say out loud just what that word means?

Webster defines it as: disease occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population.

The "pan" part means "world" and the "demic" part comes from the same root as "epidemic" which is a disease that is out of control and affects a lot of people.

So although this is a disease, and it has affected a significant number of people, it isn't even an epidemic in China, Korea, and Japan where 95% of the cases are concentrated, because it is only affecting a small percentage of the population and only in select areas. And although it has been detected in a number of different countries around the world it is only a small number of cases that affect a very miniscule percentage of the total population.

Not even close to the definition of a pandemic - though the media would have you believe it is. The last true pandemic was the Spanish flu of 1918. It is estimated that upwards of 500 MILLION people caught it, and 40-50 million died of it. THAT was a pandemic.

 

[darmtn1917]

We also know that at least 96.6% of the people infected with it survive. "From those two things we know that there may be thousands, or maybe tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands who are infected or have already had it and got over it - an unknown number of them without ever being diagnosed."

Of course a number of people may have died and were misdiagnosed as from the reg flu before testing - speculation works both ways

 

[Imissedagain]

Medical school ain't required to know what's up.

Knew a gal that ran the BacT labs at the Fort Hamilton VA back in the late '60s and she just cancelled a trip to Portugal.
She gave me a heads up to shots and the latest greatest bugs from SEA.

I reminded her today that my way to avoid "experimental" shots was to have an ice cube in my mouth before they took temps at Lowry/tech school.

OJ/Vitamin C/everyday
Early HIV recipients shot massive doses of C after getting it from shooting up drugs. They died but got some more time.

 

[BC38]

We also know that at least 96.6% of the people infected with it survive. "From those two things we know that there may be thousands, or maybe tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands who are infected or have already had it and got over it - an unknown number of them without ever being diagnosed."

Of course a number of people may have died and were misdiagnosed as from the reg flu before testing - speculation works both ways

Ummm, no.

When people die those in the medical profession tend to take it personal - and they make a pretty darned good effort to determine the cause. If someone is sick enough to be in the hospital or to die of the flu you can bet your backside they are being tested to see what strain they have. That is standard protocol. There might be the occasional indigent who dies of some kind of flu and it gets written off as simple exposure, but if there is an indication of death by something infectious you bet they are going to test to see what it is.

Ask your doc. If you go to the doctor with a serious respiratory illness the very FIRST thing they do is test to determine what it is. Is it bacterial like pneumonia? Is it viral like flu? They have to figure that out first in order to treat you effectively because bacterial and viral causes require completely different protocols and drugs.

 

[Absalom]

We also know that at least 96.6% of the people infected with it survive ...

Just a side note about those numbers:

You may be right, and if your 401k loses 3.4%, that's unfortunate, but won't cost you the farm.

But about 97% of the world population, and 97.5% of all US service members survived World War II, and it was still a pretty big deal in terms of the human cost.

These small percentages of fatalities can be deceiving in terms of their impact.

 

[BC38]

Just a side note about those numbers:

You may be right, and if your 401k loses 3.4%, that's unfortunate, but won't cost you the farm.

But about 97% of the world population, and 97.5% of all US service members survived World War II, and it was still a pretty big deal in terms of the human cost.

These small percentages of fatalities can be deceiving in terms of their impact.

All true. And I'm not trying to minimize the tragedy of people dying.

Small percentages CAN be a big deal in terms of human cost when LARGE numbers of people are involved. Like in a world-wide war.

At this point we're talking about less than 100,000 people infected worldwide and less than 3,000 dead. We aren't talking about the MILLIONS involved in WWII.

Putting it in perspective, 100,000 people on a planet of 7.7 BILLION is .0013% infected. 3,000 dead in 7.7 billion is .000039%

It is all about perspective. Small percentages amount to a lot when applied to big numbers. Applied to the numbers infected or dead from this virus they amount to nothing in the big picture. up to 20,000 AMERICANS die of known flu viruses every year.

Keep it in perspective.

 

[darmtn1917]

Ummm, no.

When people die those in the medical profession tend to take it personal - and they make a pretty darned good effort to determine the cause. If someone is sick enough to be in the hospital or to die of the flu you can bet your backside they are being tested to see what strain they have. That is standard protocol. There might be the occasional indigent who dies of some kind of flu and it gets written off as simple exposure, but if there is an indication of death by something infectious you bet they are going to test to see what it is.

Ask your doc. If you go to the doctor with a serious respiratory illness the very FIRST thing they do is test to determine what it is. Is it bacterial like pneumonia? Is it viral like flu? They have to figure that out first in order to treat you effectively because bacterial and viral causes require completely different protocols and drugs.

Your comparing our medical response to China - and it's already been shown they covered up deaths for 2 months - how many is a guess

Many people die and if they were sick with a diagnosis of flu that's it - it takes a first world medical response to confirm all deaths - there are NO hard numbers at this time so the WHO estimates are the best we have now -3.4%

Asian flu (H2N2) 1957-1958
Hong Kong flu 1968-1969
Avian flu (H1N1) 2009
HIV
All of these are classified as pandemics

 

[STCM(SW)]

As far as the rest of the world handing this vice the USA, " I find your lack faith disturbing."

 

[BC38]

Your comparing our medical response to China - and it's already been shown they covered up deaths for 2 months - how many is a guess

Many people die and if they were sick with a diagnosis of flu that's it - it takes a first world medical response to confirm all deaths - there are NO hard numbers at this time so the WHO estimates are the best we have now -3.4%

And simple statistical analysis says that is the absolute WORST CASE, and reality is that it is less than that.

China hid the outbreak and deaths from the world for a while. No doubt about it. BUT THEY KNEW WHAT IT WAS and those deaths have now been attributed to the virus. Do you believe that their 2,700 dead and 87,000 infected numbers are just in the last couple of weeks - rather than going back to the beginning? Where is the evidence for that?

If you think the US is the only place where the medical profession makes a point of determining cause of death then you are sadly mistaken.

Believe what you want - it is obvious what you WANT to believe. Let's talk about it in 6 months and see who was right. Care to take a bet in front of God and the forum and everyone? I'll bet you 50 bucks that 6 months from now it will turn out to be as much of a nothingburger as all the other "potential pandemics" I mentioned earlier.

Wanna bet?

 

[darmtn1917]

Do you not believe there is a difference between medical treatment in China and here?

"Believe what you want - it is obvious what you WANT to believe"
Same for you- and yes in a year you can compare the flu to this virus - until then the comparison is a strawman - your comparing days to a year
Bet -no thanks doesn't seem right betting on death

Will this be worse than the reg flu - don't know but appears more infectious and deadly

Your concept of the definition of pandemic is wrong see my edit and there are more

 

[biku324]

It's only gone if you sell now. It will come back.

Rolled mine over to bonds when the market hit 25,000 without solid fundamentals. I'll retire this fall, right on schedule, with gains intact.

If the money seems too easy, it is.

 

[Ziggy2525]

And simple statistical analysis says that is the absolute WORST CASE, and reality is that it is less than that.
...

I think the flaw in most of these arguments is using the aggregate probability for the entire population severely minimizes how heavily this is skewed towards people that are over 60 and people with compromised health conditions.

When they see 15% mortality rates in people over 80 that are known to have the disease and 10% mortality rates in people 70 to 80 known to have the disease, that's big. Maybe the push in the US for everyone over 65 to get a pneumonia shot will blunt that.

 

[BC38]

Do you not believe there is a difference between medical treatment in China and here?

"Believe what you want - it is obvious what you WANT to believe"
Same for you- and yes in a year you can compare the flu to this virus - until then the comparison is a strawman - your comparing days to a year
Bet -no thanks doesn't seem right betting on death

Will this be worse than the reg flu - don't know but appears more infectious and deadly

Your concept of the definition of pandemic is wrong see my edit and there are more

RE: China vs. US - you BET there is a difference between medical treatment. BUT NOT MEDICAL KNOWLEDGE. They can detect cause of death just as easily and quickly as we can. The fact that they may care less or focus less on providing the best possible care for the individual patient isn't because they lack medical knowledge or because they care any less about something that might have potential to damage them as a society. The fact that it is still isolated and not running rampant across their whole country proves they discovered it early. You can't quarantine a disease you don't detect. You can't hide it without knowing about it either.

As to what I believe, I am approaching the whole thing logically. Based on past experience with a dozen of these media-hyped pandemic scares in my lifetime, statistical analysis of the numbers, following the money, and a logical look at the big picture.

None of that has anything to do with what I want to believe. I'm as concerned about those afflicted as anyone, and I'm just as interested in protecting me and mine too. The people who are buying into the fear mongering are the ones basing what they believe on emotion. That's believing what you WANT to believe.

And I'm not betting on death. That's an emotional moral high-horse argument. I'm proposing we bet on whether it is as serious as it is being made out to be or whether it is mostly hype - promoted for both monetary and political gain.

As for the definition of pandemic - the definition I posted is Webster's not mine. If you think it's wrong, you'll need to take it up with the publishers of the dictionary.

 

[arjay]

All true. And I'm not trying to minimize the tragedy of people dying.

Small percentages CAN be a big deal in terms of human cost when LARGE numbers of people are involved. Like in a world-wide war.

At this point we're talking about less than 100,000 people infected worldwide and less than 3,000 dead. We aren't talking about the MILLIONS involved in WWII.

Putting it in perspective, 100,000 people on a planet of 7.7 BILLION is .0013% infected. 3,000 dead in 7.7 billion is .000039%

It is all about perspective. Small percentages amount to a lot when applied to big numbers. Applied to the numbers infected or dead from this virus they amount to nothing in the big picture. up to 20,000 AMERICANS die of known flu viruses every year.

Keep it in perspective.

China also had the ability to shut down the area and effectively quarantine millions of people which seems to be working so far. We don't have that ability and we won't be doing that. I have a pair of high risk 80 yr olds and I'm pretty damn high risk myself. I've spent hour upon hour reading what those who are actually in the medical field are saying about the potential problems we are facing with this. You are far to invested in a political stance and simply being right.

 

[BC38]

China also had the ability to shut down the area and effectively quarantine millions of people which seems to be working so far. We don't have that ability and we won't be doing that. I have a pair of high risk 80 yr olds and I'm pretty damn high risk myself. I've spent hour upon hour reading what those who are actually in the medical field are saying about the potential problems we are facing with this. You are far to invested in a political stance and simply being right.

Who says we don't have the ability to shut down and quarantine large areas if needed? Let it get serious and have a few governors declare a state of emergency and we'll see about that. Though it will never come to that.
BTW, I haven't even touched on the politics of it. That is a whole 'nuther topic and one we aren't really allowed to discuss here.
Look, I get it, being in the most susceptible demographic, you are scared for you and yours. Take precautions by all means. But spreading panic isn't going to help you or anyone else. The CDC has publicly stated that the panic is having more negative impact than the disease right now.
As for being right, logic IS right the vast majority of the time. I'll choose and advocate for logic over hysteria - every.single.time.
I guess time will tell, won't it? We'll see in 6 months. Probably less.

 

[Rudi]

Markets are up, so far today.

 

[BC38]

Markets are up, so far today.

Good. Common sense is starting to prevail, at least in the financial sector.
I saw the market was up something like 1290 yesterday too (or maybe that was Monday).

I don't follow it that closely. I have about 2/3 of my money invested in mutuals (401k) and the other 1/3 in stocks, but I'm not anywhere near cashing in on any of them. I'm also not making anymore big investments at this stage.

So I pay little attention to the day to day fluctuations that result from this kind of media manipulation/hysteria. I value my stomach lining.

 

[LVSteve]

Who says we don't have the ability to shut down and quarantine large areas if needed? Let it get serious and have a few governors declare a state of emergency and we'll see about that. Though it will never come to that.

Damned straight if said governors want to be reelected.