What is the deal with the Manufacturers?

[italyguy01]

Did all the Manufacturers just shut down?

I can understand ammo and clips/magazines being sold out due to the mad rush, but it does not seem like anything is being produced.

What is going on with all of the mfg's?


You would think all the mfg's of guns, ammo, magazine/clips would be working double time to produce and sell as many as possible before any **** ban is passed. I have contacted multiple mfg's and NONE of them are even taking orders or seem to be producing anything.

 

[H Richard]

I just spoke with a fairly large distributor, and he states all the mfg's he works with are producing at full throttle, but the buyers have out stripped what they can produce. There is still plenty of ammo being shipped, but when it hits the stores the first few buyers buy it all up, and leave nothing for you. Until that stops, there will continue to be shortages. The people who are buying by the multiple case lot.

 

[Titan]

Consider the dilemma of manufacturers.

Demand is through the roof. Do they hire to fill three shifts if not already running at that rate? Do they expand capacity (more equipment AND more staff)?

Then consider the economic uncertainty facing all employers.

Obamacare
Increased taxes
Government 'demonization' of profit making businesses

then add the uncertainty over anti-gun Executive Orders, regulations, and potential legislation.

Businesses plan capacity expansion on a two to five year horizon.

There's WAY too much uncertainty on multiple fronts to do anything other than get the most you can out of the equipment and staff you have, with whatever increases you're willing to risk.

 

[kozmic]

Consider the dilemma of manufacturers.

Demand is through the roof. Do they hire to fill three shifts if not already running at that rate? Do they expand capacity (more equipment AND more staff)?

Then consider the economic uncertainty facing all employers.

Obamacare
Increased taxes
Government 'demonization' of profit making businesses

then add the uncertainty over anti-gun Executive Orders, regulations, and potential legislation.

Businesses plan capacity expansion on a two to five year horizon.

There's WAY too much uncertainty on multiple fronts to do anything other than get the most you can out of the equipment and staff you have, with whatever increases you're willing to risk.

Yeah, what he said^^^^^^
Perfectly stated Titan!

 

[WR Moore]

He's also leaving out the issue of where the additional machines & tooling comes from. Just as an example, the forming presses for bullets, cartridge cases and primer cups & anvils aren't sitting in warehouses waiting to be shipped. Nor is the specialized tooling.

Production of all goods is based upon previous experience and orders by the vendors and/or distributors. Brownells sold the equivilent of 3 years worth of magazine sales in 72 hours. With minor exceptions, production of different products by any one manufacturer is scheduled a year in advance to fill those contracts/orders they have. Defaulting on existing contracts/orders to continue production of a product with overwhelming demand is gonna cost present money, future contracts and much good will.

The manufacturers may be able to work overtime to fill increased demand, but they also have to able to get the necessary materials to produce more.

 

[Alnamvet68]

One more thing, in the case of the S&W and Colt factory, if you haven't visited, you should...neither factory is really all that big, and I sometimes wonder how anybody can get stock of their handguns, seeing as these two players aren't equipped and sized to mass produce handguns in large numbers like, say, Springfield, or Imbel in Brazil. Why the Springfield factory in Croatia is not only huge, it's brand new and has nothing but state of the art CAD/CAM and forging capabilities, all under one roof; not so S&W or Colt.

 

[GregoryJ]

I truly believe that all manufacturer's are producing everything they possibly can. The empty gun display cases and ammunition shelves are the result of a demand spike that no one would have ever predicted would be a large as it has been in recent weeks. Look at what happened with a single gun, the S&W Shield. We have all read the postings about the long waiting period between ordering and receiving the very popular new gun. Now multiple that across several products. It will take months if not years for the supply chain to recover from the recent buying frenzy.

 

[blujax01]

Folks although it seems longer, it's only been a month since this nightmare began. Read the business section of your local paper - any plant expansion takes time and planning. Certainly a lot longer than 30 days. Hell it takes that long to get through the interview process after something as minor as additional shifts have been discussed and authorized.

Patience...

 

[italyguy01]

Consider the dilemma of manufacturers.

Demand is through the roof. Do they hire to fill three shifts if not already running at that rate? Do they expand capacity (more equipment AND more staff)?

Then consider the economic uncertainty facing all employers.

Obamacare
Increased taxes
Government 'demonization' of profit making businesses

then add the uncertainty over anti-gun Executive Orders, regulations, and potential legislation.

Businesses plan capacity expansion on a two to five year horizon.

There's WAY too much uncertainty on multiple fronts to do anything other than get the most you can out of the equipment and staff you have, with whatever increases you're willing to risk.

Thank you and others for a good answer. I appreciate it.

 

[dcxplant]

...man am I glad I acted fast.

But now the dilemma is keep shooting like I have been, depleting what I do have (at my burn rate, about two months) and hope for more supplies when that runs out or radically throttle back my shooting until the dust settles and stocks are back up?

Conundrum....

 

[GaryS]

One more thing, in the case of the S&W and Colt factory, if you haven't visited, you should...neither factory is really all that big, and I sometimes wonder how anybody can get stock of their handguns, seeing as these two players aren't equipped and sized to mass produce handguns in large numbers like, say, Springfield, or Imbel in Brazil. Why the Springfield factory in Croatia is not only huge, it's brand new and has nothing but state of the art CAD/CAM and forging capabilities, all under one roof; not so S&W or Colt.

S&W has more than one factory. However, your point is well taken. As is Titan's.

Plus, it takes time to train new hires to become competent at their jobs. And then what happens in six months or a year when demand drops back to pre panic levels and the manufacturers are stuck with surplus equipment and more employees than they actually need?

 

[rwsmith]

I'm sure that they have upped production

I'm sure they are making as much as they can with the resources they have. But if they invest in more people or especially more property and machinery, when the wheels come off of this shortage they will be left holding the bag. If demand continues (and I think there will be an end to it) they may ramp up production. Right now I'll bet they are enjoying selling everything they can make.

 

[Frank237]

I spoke with all sorts of Industry types two weeks back at SHOT Show in Vegas. ALL of the producers, from magazines, to ammo, components, even DIES...are virtually SOLD OUT.
The recent "spike" in sales has been that large.

Spoke to the REDDING Rep. He stated when he left the factory there was not a single set of .223 dies available!

FORGET any of the popular handgun or AR builders. ALL are building as much as they can...as fast as they can. And don't forget. Whats going to happen with the pending gun legislation? Who knows?

So many are hesitant to add machinery or workers...Only to lose them with a stroke of the President's pen how many ever weeks or months down the road.

Several said things should break one way or the other...when we know WHAT the House/Senate does regarding the gun issue.

Hurry up and Wait.

FN in MT

 

[Vegetaman]

I just spoke with a fairly large distributor, and he states all the mfg's he works with are producing at full throttle, but the buyers have out stripped what they can produce. There is still plenty of ammo being shipped, but when it hits the stores the first few buyers buy it all up, and leave nothing for you. Until that stops, there will continue to be shortages. The people who are buying by the multiple case lot.

I got to our local farm store about 6 hours after their ammo shipment came in. I bought just a box of .45, but the guy in front of me brought 12 bricks of 22LR. And I was there at a very off hour. If you blink, you'll miss it!

 

[Grayfox]

Also bear in mind that a company may have 100 products they sell, but the factory may only have 10 assembly lines.
Normally, they'll set up an assembly line for a certian product and make as many as they anticipate selling over the next year. Once that goal is reached, they shut down the line and retool for a different product. This retooling takes time and money while that line isn't making anything.
In short, they can only make so much of any one item at any one time.

Several years ago Winchester kept under guessing their bullet sales. Particularly with the .45 caliber 230gr FMJ. As a result, the entire supply would sell out several months before production was scheduled to restart again.

I'm sure that right now many companies are tearing their hair out trying to decide to continue current production or retool a line for what's currently wanted. A mistake here could prove disastrous to the companies future.

 

[jerrywcoop]

Very many new buyers who have never owned firearms before buying anything they can find and lots of ammo. Plus all the people who have been here before stocking up.
I was in my LGS the day after Sandy Hook (it was packed to the gills). I was checking the price on a Bushmaster and a guy walked up to me and said "hey man is that an AK47". I decided it was time to leave and come back after the rush was over.

 

[mtelkhntr]

Many great responses and an additional delay bringing additional product to market may be the availability of raw materials. Lead (look what scrap car batteries are bringing now), copper, brass, steel (recyclers in my neck of the woods are running round the clock breaking down scap), rubber (bought tires lately?), etc., etc.

 

[A10]

I stopped at my LGS yesterday and they are getting deliveries but whatever comes in goes out just as fast! The guys behind the counter said the craziness hasn't stopped yet.

 

[Fishslayer]

It's timing. Sometimes yer the bug, sometimes yer the windshield.

I scored the SR1911 I'd been trying to get for almost 2 years through a forum member. By coincidence I happened to DROS it the morning of December 14.

Late December I jumped on a short fuse group ammo buy & got the last of the supplier's Yugo x39 stash @ $.30/round.

November I ordered up a couple mag kits for my Mini-30. Considered getting a few more. "Nah...." sez I. "I'll just order up a few more later." D'OH!

 

[Hack]

I've been a buyer of bulk ammo since 2008. The first frenzy took a while to subside (6-9 months), and I think the present one will take all that and perhaps more. Especially with ammunition. Luckily, I don't need any more hi-cap magazines. The last few guns I've purchased, I've always bought multiple mags to go with them.

I'm amazed at the prices some sellers are asking for Ruger 20/30 round factory mags. Heck, they were pricey enough before the madness. Now they are just absolutely crazy. I'll be damned if I'd pay $100+ for one 30 round mag. No way.

 

[HotRoderX]

Another thing to keep in mind about gun manufactures is they don't produce every thing all the time. They have a set number of machines that they use to make there entire line up of firearms. Mon-wed might be the days they have the lines setup to make M&P 15's. Thurs - Friday might be Semi auto's while Sat-Sun might be used for revolver production.

Also keep in mind these parts have to be tested double tested and triple tested before even going to a assembler who then has to put the firearm together from the parts then get re tested.

Plus they have to get shipments from other manufactures such as springs, plastics, metal's, I am sure they don't manufacture everything them self s somethings are out sourced. I bet springs are special hard to get right now since there used in every single gun manufactures firearms + there used in every single mag design out there. Plus all the other industries out there who use springs and are still making orders.

As far as the ammo side of things that's gotta be even worse. I keep hearing a common problem for reloaders is no primers which makes since. The company's I know of that make primers are also ammo manufactures. Think Winchester, CCI, Remington, Tula, Federal, etc I am not a reloader sorry if I missed some. I bet the primers these company sells are overruns on there production which is normally ok. I am sure when they make primers they run extra lots in case one of the lots fails inspection they have backups. Right now there are no extra lots there using ever thing they are manufacturing. I am also sure they run different calibers different days. As far as 22lr goes I read in a book once that 30% of all 22lr that is produced is defective and scraped. I dont know if thats true but it makes since. Its really not uncommon to get atleast 2-3 duds in a bulk box of 500.

I am sure all the manufactures are in over time its just we have a perfect storm situation. Hopefully over sea's manufactures will step it up and start helping out the market with ammo.

 

[Beemerguy53]

I got to our local farm store about 6 hours after their ammo shipment came in. I bought just a box of .45, but the guy in front of me brought 12 bricks of 22LR. And I was there at a very off hour. If you blink, you'll miss it!

Twelve bricks of .22??? That's 6000 rounds! There are only two possible reasons to hoard that much .22...

1. He intends to re-sell it.

2. He is really afraid he won't be able to get it at all in the foreseeable future.

My money is on choice #1 above.

BTW, merchants could help us out here by not letting one person buy up all their ammo. There's enough demand that a one-brick or two-brick limit per customer would still sell out the merchant's stock, but fairly.

 

[chud333]

Don't know if it has been mentioned yet but there are also the
people buying now who are merely "speculators". I'm hearing
about some who are buying all the mags they can find and all
the ammo they can buy and they don't even own a gun !!!!
With all the goings on lately i believe we truly have the
"Perfect Storm" effect. It's gonna be a long time for things to get
back to normal. I've cut back my shooting quite a bit until i can
see what is going to happen. I'm sure others have as well.
But there are still a lot of folks who like to shoot quite frequently
and they are going to be hurting because of the shortage of ammo
and reloading components.

Chuck

 

[rakstr]

Twelve bricks of .22??? That's 6000 rounds! There are only two possible reasons to hoard that much .22...

1. He intends to re-sell it.

2. He is really afraid he won't be able to get it at all in the foreseeable future.

My money is on choice #1 above.

BTW, merchants could help us out here by not letting one person buy up all their ammo. There's enough demand that a one-brick or two-brick limit per customer would still sell out the merchant's stock, but fairly.

Around here, Cabelas has had a 10 box limit for some time. Today I noticed Acadamy has moved the stock for "popular" rounds to the register area and started a limit on those. Today was also the first I saw of the 3 box limit in our local Walmart stores.

 

[Fishslayer]

Twelve bricks of .22??? That's 6000 rounds! There are only two possible reasons to hoard that much .22...

1. He intends to re-sell it.

2. He is really afraid he won't be able to get it at all in the foreseeable future.

My money is on choice #1 above.

.

Don't forget trade bait.

 

[2hawk]

Lots of good valid points made. One more: it doesn't matter if a manufacturer adds shifts or production capacity if they can't get the raw materials. Lots of demand and limited supply.

It's unlikely that this current boom will continue indefinitely, so why would anyone produce when they would have to raise prices significantly due to current demand, and then look forward to the inevitable glut (and falling prices) in the market that is bound to occur.

OK, maybe I'm an optimist

 

[blujax01]

Twelve bricks of .22??? That's 6000 rounds! There are only two possible reasons to hoard that much .22...

1. He intends to re-sell it.

2. He is really afraid he won't be able to get it at all in the foreseeable future.

My money is on choice #1 above.

BTW, merchants could help us out here by not letting one person buy up all their ammo. There's enough demand that a one-brick or two-brick limit per customer would still sell out the merchant's stock, but fairly.

"Oh-my-gawd-the-sky-if-falling-there's-some-ammo-I-better-grab-all-I-can" seems to be the mantra around here.

I'm thinking that in a couple of years we're going to see some awesome garage sales!

 

[Beemerguy53]

"Oh-my-gawd-the-sky-if-falling-there's-some-ammo-I-better-grab-all-I-can" seems to be the mantra around here.

I'm thinking that in a couple of years we're going to see some awesome garage sales!

I was in a neat little gun store today, located about a half-hour from my home. He was out of stock on just about all ammo, stated there is no way he can get more right now. Anything that even looks like an "assault weapon" was marked "sold".

I hope those gun-grabbers are happy...

 

[Faulkner]

Twelve bricks of .22??? That's 6000 rounds! There are only two possible reasons to hoard that much .22...

1. He intends to re-sell it.

2. He is really afraid he won't be able to get it at all in the foreseeable future.

My money is on choice #1 above.

BTW, merchants could help us out here by not letting one person buy up all their ammo. There's enough demand that a one-brick or two-brick limit per customer would still sell out the merchant's stock, but fairly.

Well, I disagree with your reasoning. Life is not fair, and if I show up at the store with the cashola to buy all the ammo the merchant has that's just the way it is. After all, the merchant is in business to sell his stuff, not hold on to it.

You know, there are winners and loosers. If you want to win you have to get up early and beat the other guy to the store. This whole "let's be fair" thing has a socialist ring to it, and it seems somewhat distasteful.

No personal offense meant.

 

[Practical]

Twelve bricks of .22??? That's 6000 rounds! There are only two possible reasons to hoard that much .22...

1. He intends to re-sell it.

2. He is really afraid he won't be able to get it at all in the foreseeable future.

My money is on choice #1 above.

BTW, merchants could help us out here by not letting one person buy up all their ammo. There's enough demand that a one-brick or two-brick limit per customer would still sell out the merchant's stock, but fairly.

There is a 3rd reason.

If AMMO BACKGROUND checks get into place, he may not be able o purchase it.

He might have an old domestic violence arrest or a fight back in the 1960 when he was on leave from the service he was arrested for.

I am going to hazard a guess that background checks for ammo purchases are going to get hung up on dozens of minor offenses, mistaken identity, domestic orders or 'mental health' concerns.

In NY here, ammo back ground checks start next year.

AMMO is being bought like crazy. There is nothing left on the shelf anywhere except one shop I stopped at and the shop was full of people, about 50, buying guns, ammo, reloading supplies or trading banned guns in to sell out of state.

I saw a brisk sale of henry center fire rifles and all things lever action.