No, I wish it was but its not. There is simply not enough production to meet demand.
How does this counter the claim that it's hoarders? I think it's the same darn argument, more hoarders / hoarding = more demand. I think it's clear from gunshow craziness to the people I have sold .22lr to, that there is more hoarding than before. And it may not be the one guy with a million 22lr in his basement, but even the individual who in the past would have kept maybe one brick on hand who know has 3 or 4 because thanks to the hoarders can't count on going to store and getting a box before his range trip. This causes a huge increase in demand.
My hypothesis would be this, given the low profit margin on 22lr, for years federal and other companies did not expand production and roughly tried to keep it equal with demand. With demand =~ supply, there were boxes on the shelf and everyone had 22lr available. For every box bought you had a new box to put on the shelf. Then come the elections, you have a spike in demand and now demand >> supply, the boxes on the shelf are bought and so is every new box put up there.
Now federal could make new factories but that's expensive and how long will it take to pay off with the profits from 22lr, assuming that the logistics would allow for more production in the first place. Add on top of that licensing, zoning, insurance all of that it doesn't make sense for what is likely a short-term fluctuation in the demand curve. Also suggesting that an individual should open an ammo factory is just absurd, it's not about being a "go-getter" or a complainer, it's just too darn expensive for what is almost certainly a sure loss in a decade.
The real solution is for federal and the other companies to raise prices if you want it to be available 100% of the time, but they are hesitant to do that since it doesn't change the demand curve. They aren't thinking about the next month or year, they are thinking a decade from now, that's why there's no new factories. They would rather have demand > supply than have supply > demand on a low profit item to guarantee sells especially since brand preference is largely moot for 22lr, a dollar increase over competition could harm customer loyalty / sells. And yes places are getting less than they used to, but there are more stores than even a few years ago and more online retail, it's not going to China, the people who say that just blame china for most things when it's pure capitalist invisible hand forces that explain the situation.
