The Russians have gone in

[Absalom]

An update on those Syrian fighters Putin is supposedly recruiting:

Putin has officially talked about them, and wild numbers of 16,000, 22,000, and even 40,000 have been put out by both the Russians (apparently to scare the Ukrainians) and by the Ukrainians (to get people outraged). The media have run with it.

I just read a sober analysis of all the available evidence. It's in German, so I'll just summarize: At this point, to borrow a quote from Blackadder, those Syrian fighters are like the four-legged haddock fish beast of Aberdeen:

They don't exist.

Assad is winning in Syria, but still fighting a multi-front civil war, so Syrian troops are out of the question. There are reports of "recruiting fighters", but evidence of active efforts or organization seems to be non-existent.

 

[oldbrownhat]

...At this point, to borrow a quote from Blackadder, those Syrian fighters are like the four-legged haddock fish beast of Aberdeen:...

Nearly lost my morning coffee over that

But thanks for the good news.

 

[Onomea]

...those Syrian fighters are like the four-legged haddock fish beast of Aberdeen:

They don't exist...

Excellent! Glad to hear it. Thanks, Absalom.

 

[StakeOut]

Did you see the news video of the POTUS in Poland talking to the US troops there?
He told them they'd be going to the Ukraine....another gaff that needed to be cleaned up quickly.
The Russian press was quick to run with the story.

 

[LVSteve]

Did you see the news video of the POTUS in Poland talking to the US troops there?
He told them they'd be going to the Ukraine....another gaff that needed to be cleaned up quickly.
The Russian press was quick to run with the story.

I'm guessing he doesn't do well with jet lag.

 

[Absalom]

There seems to be a change in Russian public messaging. For simplicity, I'm just copy-pasting from CNN:

"In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed," Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, said in a Friday briefing. "The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbas."
……….
"The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of ​​the blockaded Ukrainian cities," Rudskoy said. "These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow us not only to tie down their forces and prevent them from strengthening their grouping in the Donbas, but also will not allow them to do this until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LNR."

So apparently this whole clusterfudge of an invasion was planned that way, to distract the Ukrainians from the Donbas. I'm sure Russian soldiers will find that reassuring.

One could almost get the impression they're setting the stage for declaring victory, holding whatever part of the Donbas they've managed to occupy.

 

[arjay]

From cnn

 

[UncleEd]

In the end for Putin, Babushka
Protests will bring him down.

In Russia, it's a force no
dictator can withstand.

 

[oldbrownhat]

.."The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced,..."

..."as a result of the Ukrainian forces shooting us to pieces."

From the WaPo article on the previous page (#1296) on people leaving their posts:

Zhanna Agalakova:
"My reports didn't contain lies, but that's exactly how propaganda works: You take reliable facts, mix them up, and a big lie comes together. Facts are true, but their mix is propaganda"​

Some amendments:

So apparently this whole clusterfudge of an invasion was planned that way, to distract the Ukrainians from the Donbas. I'm sure the dead Russian soldiers' families will find that reassuring

One could almost get the impression they're setting the stage for declaring victory, surveying whatever fragments of the Donbas survive the "liberation."

 

[biku324]

The Biden barb about Putin not remaining in power was a barb that struck the target. The Kremlin already replied in a snit.

 

[oldbrownhat]

The Biden barb about Putin not remaining in power was a barb that struck the target. The Kremlin already replied in a snit.

Blinken: "The Russian people have to decide who to lead them"

Kremlin: "It should only be a choice of the people of The Russian Federation"

ergo: Мы, люди ("We the People...")

 

[Rudi]

A 9x18 headache.

 

[smithman 10]

Partition likely when it's all over?

There seems to be a change in Russian public messaging. For simplicity, I'm just copy-pasting from CNN:

"In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed," Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, said in a Friday briefing. "The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbas."
……….
"The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of ​​the blockaded Ukrainian cities," Rudskoy said. "These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow us not only to tie down their forces and prevent them from strengthening their grouping in the Donbas, but also will not allow them to do this until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LNR."

So apparently this whole clusterfudge of an invasion was planned that way, to distract the Ukrainians from the Donbas. I'm sure Russian soldiers will find that reassuring.

One could almost get the impression they're setting the stage for declaring victory, holding whatever part of the Donbas they've managed to occupy.

That's what I've been thinking for a long time. Russia cannot conquer AND occupy the entire country. And Ukraine does not have the strength to retake the eastern region and Crimea.

Only the combat intervention of NATO, or the waning of strong NATO weapons aid and other support to Ukraine could change these facts, IMHO.

As I don't see NATO taking either of these roads, I think we are in for a long, messy windup to this war with a complicated and dangerous future afterwards.

Again, just my take.

 

[UncleEd]

Saying Putin "cannot remain
in power" is of course a
diplomatic flub. Of course
the US does not advocate
the forceful removal of Putin
by outside powers.

And saying Putin "cannot
remain in power" is an idea
that not one of Russia's
140 million citizens ever
would entertain. Not one!

 

[biku324]

Maybe a flub; maybe what was meant but allowing 'plausible deniability.' Putin certainly heard it, poor lil dictator.

 

[arjay]

I think it was pre planned along with the walk back ;-)

 

[Beemerguy53]

Zhanna Agalakova:
"My reports didn't contain lies, but that's exactly how propaganda works: You take reliable facts, mix them up, and a big lie comes together. Facts are true, but their mix is propaganda"​

One of the most poignant examples of propaganda I can recall reading about was in one of the books I have on Holocaust and the Nuremberg war crimes trials. (I believe it's Robert Conot's Justice at Nuremberg, which is the definitive history of the trials.)

According to the anecdote in the book, as the Red Army closed in on Berlin in April of '45, Reich Minister of Propaganda Joseph Goebbels took to the air to tell the German people that victory was at hand, because the Bolsheviks were now coming to Germany, thus making it easier and more convenient to kill them...

[ame]https://www.amazon.com/Justice-at-Nuremberg-Robert-Conot/dp/0881840327/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3JYTVDRB8TK32&keywords=conot+nuremberg&qid=1648338200&sprefix=conot+nuremberg%2Caps%2C1590&sr=8-1[/ame]

 

[Beemerguy53]

The Biden barb about Putin not remaining in power was a barb that struck the target. The Kremlin already replied in a snit.

My jaw dropped when I heard the president say that, and my first thought was that this surely wasn't in his speech. However...it is what the entire world is likely thinking anyway.

Putin is now the skunk at the world's garden party. I suspect (hope) he'll be accused, tried, and convicted of war crimes, and will be unable to travel anywhere outside Russia as a result. Russia will not command any respect from other nations so long as Putin is in power. He will be able to rule only so long as his myrmidons believe it's in their best interest to tolerate him.

Putin's got to go...and the whole world realizes that. I wonder how many presidents, premiers, and prime ministers heard those words today and nodded in agreement?

 

[Beemerguy53]

That's what I've been thinking for a long time. Russia cannot conquer AND occupy the entire country. And Ukraine does not have the strength to retake the eastern region and Crimea.

Only the combat intervention of NATO, or the waning of strong NATO weapons aid and other support to Ukraine could change these facts, IMHO.

As I don't see NATO taking either of these roads, I think we are in for a long, messy windup to this war with a complicated and dangerous future afterwards.

Again, just my take.

Good analysis.

My impression, based on what we see on the news, is that the Ukrainians are willing to fight, in vast numbers Putin cannot match, and that what they need is logistical support. The Russians, on the other hand, need logistical support PLUS soldiers to fight.

I think the Ukrainian people will never accept an end to hostilities that gives Putin any of what he wants...he will have to deal with an endless insurgency. Putin cannot win this...I just wonder how much more blood must be shed before he throws in the towel?

 

[Rudi]

Our astronaut on the ISS is scheduled to return to Earth next week on a Soyuz capsule. They already have a WNBA star in jail. Would they hold on to him?