The Russians have gone in

[bigwheelzip]

"We've got an awful lot of Vikings now in England"

From a statement by Ben Wallace, British Defense Secretary, regarding the influx of hundreds of military trainers coming to Britain from every Nordic nation, to buttress the mission of training Ukrainian soldiers.


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[Beemerguy53]

The fog of war and propaganda make accuracy difficult, but certain trends have developed.

With 25 western rocket artillery launchers in inventory, Ukraine has the tools to outrange and blunt the Russian's artillery based war fighting doctrine, essentially stopping their ground gaining momentum.

Ukraine's offensive capabilities are on an upward trend, with a 50+ nation allied group contributing systems and training.

Advanced air defense rocket systems will arrive soon, able to shield city-sized areas of Ukraine from most air attacks...

Watching the news every day, I'm reminded of how WW2 evolved...

For the first year or so, the Third Reich was unstoppable, marching across Europe, and the future appeared very bleak for Britain and her allies. There were those in the USA who actually supported Germany, and at least some in England who wanted to make peace with Hitler, even at the cost of letting him keep the nations he had conquered.

We're only six months into what will probably be a long struggle for the Ukrainians, but I remain confident of their ultimate victory.

[ame]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJ5sjFf4w1k[/ame]

 

[Der Verminator]

I doubt that Putin wants to occupy all of Ukraine now.......that would be impossible.

All he needs to do to CONTROL Ukraine is to occupy a narrow strip from the east end around the south edge on the Black Sea and control all the seaports.

By so doing he claims for Russia all the oil and natural gas reserves under the Black Sea--a gain of many trillions of dollars.

He also controls Ukrainian shipping of grain and that gives him huge leverage and power over the rest of the country.

He will accomplish these reasonable goals in a few months and can then take many years to absorb the rest of Ukraine.

 

[Onomea]

..He will accomplish these reasonable goals in a few months and can then take many years to absorb the rest of Ukraine.

I think it likely that Putin would like to accomplish these limited goals, having had his military severely mauled trying to take over entire country. But I think Ukraine is now enraged, eager for revenge, and will fight until Russia leaves its territory entirely. I don't think Ukraine will settle for a stalemate.

I do worry that the West may not have the staying power needed to continue to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. I hope we do...

 

[Der Verminator]

I think it likely that Putin would like to accomplish these limited goals, having had his military severely mauled trying to take over entire country. But I think Ukraine is now enraged, eager for revenge, and will fight until Russia leaves its territory entirely. I don't think Ukraine will settle for a stalemate.

I do worry that the West may not have the staying power needed to continue to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. I hope we do...

I don't see any evidence that Putin had any intention of taking over the entire country immediately.

We in the West tend to think in terms of immediate gratification and ASSUME others think the same way.

The Eastern mind is much more patient and thinks in terms of decades rather than months.

When the beautiful and historic city of Odessa is reduced to rubble........Ukrainians may start to ponder the cost of their resistance and pro-Russian factions will gain strength.

As for the staying power of the West.......I think we have already began to question the cost (and the wisdom) of propping up this lost cause.

 

[Onomea]

By "trying to take over the entire country," perhaps I spoke loosely. What I meant was that the initial Russian mission, as I understood it, was to occupy Kiev and replace the current government with a Russian puppet government. Putin, I think, believed he could do this quickly. (Everybody else, except the Ukrainians, seems to have believed this.)

Re we in the West and our assumptions of immediate gratification, I'll comment that the Russians were in Afghanistan for 10 years while we were there for 20...

 

[Beemerguy53]

I don't see any evidence that Putin had any intention of taking over the entire country immediately.

Putin attacked Kiev early on...what was the reason for that, if he didn't intend to take over the entire country?

I agree totally with Onomea...the Ukrainians are enraged and energized, and will never settle for a stalemate. If Russia somehow succeeds in occupying the eastern regions of Ukraine, they will have to fight every single day to maintain control, and they will ultimately lose that battle.

No Russian conscript will fight as hard to take Ukraine as the Ukrainians will fight to keep it...

 

[bigwheelzip]

INCOMING!!!!

Ukraine just took delivery of eight new ZUZANA 2 self-propelled 155mm Howitzers, purchased from Slovakia.

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[LVSteve]

INCOMING!!!!

Ukraine just took delivery of eight new ZUZANA 2 self-propelled 155mm Howitzers, purchased from Slovakia.

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Fake news. That's my offroad rig for coyote hunting here in Nevada.

 

[LVSteve]

Putin attacked Kiev early on...what was the reason for that, if he didn't intend to take over the entire country?

This. It doesn't matter if your military takes over the country or you install a puppet government, you still took over. The attempt to take Gostomel (Hostomel if you prefer) was a clear move to execute a "decapitation" of the sitting Ukrainian government, allowing a takeover.

 

[venomballistics]

I agree totally with Onomea...the Ukrainians are enraged and energized, and will never settle for a stalemate. If Russia somehow succeeds in occupying the eastern regions of Ukraine, they will have to fight every single day to maintain control, and they will ultimately lose that battle.

This seems to have been the situation for quite some time. Another dimension worth considering is capacity to fight.
The Eastern front seems to be stripped of capacity.
Emotional disposition and will are likely there. They just cannot do anything with their motivation aside from a Ghandi doctrine movement of passive resistance. I don't believe Russia has assessed much value to the population for that to be as effective as it was in Brit occupied India.
It must be retaken from left to right from the outside.
The same applies to the southern front.

 

[Der Verminator]

By "trying to take over the entire country," perhaps I spoke loosely. What I meant was that the initial Russian mission, as I understood it, was to occupy Kiev and replace the current government with a Russian puppet government. Putin, I think, believed he could do this quickly. (Everybody else, except the Ukrainians, seems to have believed this.)

Re we in the West and our assumptions of immediate gratification, I'll comment that the Russians were in Afghanistan for 10 years while we were there for 20...

Well, our reasons may have been different.......after all, the longer we stay in a war........the more profit for the sellers of war material. It's a tried and true formula here.

I guess nobody knows what's in Putin's mind, but taking the whole country in one fell swoop seems like too much.......Then again, maybe he did think that more Ukrainians were still loyal to Russia.......who knows?

He's not exactly a great example of mental health.

I do think that the Black Sea oil and gas reserves were and are a primary goal and a method of retaining power by controlling energy sources needed by Europe.

 

[bigwheelzip]

No Russian conscript will fight as hard to take Ukraine as the Ukrainians will fight to keep it...

Absolutely.

There is something else there that we westerners generally don't comprehend. Generations of Soviet rule and accompanying shortages, bring Ukrainians finely honed survival skills. Opportunism as art form. A mental toughness in the face of adversity.

For example, so many pieces of Russian hardware were taken away by Ukrainians, that they commemorate it with a postage stamp.

Ukrainian Tractors Versus Russian Armor - YouTube

There is a making lemonade from lemons feel to this group of infantrymen that create a self-propelled tank destroyer from assorted battlefield trophies.

"Ukrainians showcase custom gun assembled from captured Russian equipment" Ukrainians showcase custom gun assembled from captured Russian equipment


Then, there is the unimpressed Ukrainian infantry, discussing their fight with Putin's favorite mercenary force, the Wagner Group.


"Russian Mercenaries Battle With Ukrainian Army" Russian Mercenaries Battle With Ukrainian Army



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[biku324]

Putin lacks the equipment, military, and economic wherewithal to do the below. He anticipated another South Ossetia and got instead supercharged Afghanistan, but with rich allies.

I doubt that Putin wants to occupy all of Ukraine now.......that would be impossible.

All he needs to do to CONTROL Ukraine is to occupy a narrow strip from the east end around the south edge on the Black Sea and control all the seaports.

By so doing he claims for Russia all the oil and natural gas reserves under the Black Sea--a gain of many trillions of dollars.

He also controls Ukrainian shipping of grain and that gives him huge leverage and power over the rest of the country.

He will accomplish these reasonable goals in a few months and can then take many years to absorb the rest of Ukraine.

 

[Rudi]

The chances of him attacking NATO are slim and none. Slim has left the Dacha.

 

[oldbrownhat]

...For example, so many pieces of Russian hardware were taken away by Ukrainians...

...whose JD tractors ran because THEY weren't locked out

 

[bigwheelzip]

The last Russian held Denipro River crossing in Kherson Oblast, the Nova Kakhovka Bridge, has reportedly been knocked out by Ukrainian fire. This leaves only 2 pontoon rafts available for the Russian's equipment to cross the river.
Reports are that most Russian senior officers have retreated from the now cutoff region on the far side of the Denipro, leaving conscripts with less than the usual leadership.



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[venomballistics]

That can make a Crimean rematch a possibility...
And I think they should

 

[venomballistics]

Freshly gleened from my battle map feed.
" Tiz only a flesh wound"

Ministry of Defense of Belarus says explosions heard last night at Ziabrovka airfield were as result of equipment caught fire

 

[bigwheelzip]

The HARM missiles recently arrived in Ukraine are being put to good use, according to sources in Kyiv.

The U.S. anti-radiation missiles are thought to be involved in the destruction of at least five Russian anti-aircraft systems, four S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems and a Pantsir-S1 missile system.


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