How close are BLUE BOOK values to real world prices?

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ChargerBill

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I was just browsing through my 2019 copy of the Blue Book gun values and I’m noticing that not too many of the prices in the book reflect what I’m seeing in gun shops, and ESPECIALLY not what I’m seeing online.

Do the values in the blue book represent what a serious collector will pay? In all honesty it seems like gun values are based on many factors in addition to finish and rarity.

And not speaking of only Smith & Wesson revolvers, but most any useable firearm across the spectrum. To me the values in the book seem low compared to real world prices.
 
ChargerBill said:
I was just browsing through my 2019 copy of the Blue Book gun values and I’m noticing that not too many of the prices in the book reflect what I’m seeing in gun shops, and ESPECIALLY not what I’m seeing online.

Do the values in the blue book represent what a serious collector will pay? In all honesty it seems like gun values are based on many factors in addition to finish and rarity.

And not speaking of only Smith & Wesson revolvers, but most any useable firearm across the spectrum. To me the values in the book seem low compared to real world prices.
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2019 may as well have been a lifetime ago … We’re roughly 15 months into a panic.

Common sense is currently still on vacation.
 
Unfortunately, published prices in book form are obsolete as soon as they are printed. I can imagine less popular/low demand items having somewhat stable pricing over time, but those in very high demand will have unpredictably higher prices.

Over time some guns become relatively static in value, but the overall trend for major brands in excellent condition is consistently upward.
 
The interval between when the price info was accumulated and when the published book hits the market may be a couple years. That means that the 2019 book contains 2017 prices.

When you’re looking at a price in the book today, the data is already 4 years old. Normal gun price inflation plus the hyper inflation of the past year means the blue book prices are further outdated.

Blue book values give useful comparative information (eg, 2 1/2 “ model 19’s are worth more than 4” 19’s). The blue book doesn’t accurately reflect current prices.
 
ChargerBill said:
Well damn, that’s wasted money right there. I would have been better off buying a box of .38
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Yep.

Of course if’n you’re looking for a good gun book - the Standard Catalog of Smith & Wesson (4th edition) is an excellent resource.

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But, BE CAREFUL … I wouldn’t place too much stock into its prices either (as the authors will tell you themselves) but I know that my copy has run my wallet ragged. Soooooo many incredible models of S&W’s that I didn’t even know existed - and now own (or am still drooling over) ;)
 
The Blue Book of Gun Values is a historically significant tool in our hobby over the decades and it’s a fine resource for identifying guns and particular nuances of them also but as a value or current price trading guide, it hasn’t been accurate for a LONG time.

And for some items that are recently hot on the market, a dealer or gun trader that relies on a printed book such as the Blue Book is going to be at a major disadvantage.
 
In my opinion the Blue Book SCSW , and others like it are seldom if ever in line with pricing. I'm not even sure why the bother. They are however great sources of information on the various makes, and models, rarities, ect....
 
Hold that Blue Book up and shake it real hard, see how many guns fall out of it with price tags that match the book's stated values. I had a dealer tell me that once.
The Blue Book can be a useful tool in determining relative values, especially when it comes to variants of and options for a particular firearm. The values stated are always out of date as anything that is printed is history before it hits the retail market.
 
depends on what your position is...buyer or seller

Over all the years I've been involved with this firearm collecting, shooting, buying, selling, etc. arena, the one thing about "gun price guides", books, catalogs, etc. is that it really depends on whether you are a seller or a buyer, as to the guides perceived value as a tool.

Having been both a buyer and a seller (like most of us) I always saw sellers use Blue Book to show potential buyers how much on the high end the gun is worth, then stating that's an average value, then touting the rarity, scarcity, ultra fine condition of their specific example whereas buyers try to convince the seller (usually a no-go) that the gun is at the low end.

Normal market negotiations in a capitalistic society. Check out Kelly Blue Book for your car/truck value..you think it is perfect condition (high value), you want to get the top private sale price, the dealer goes with average to below, just like guns, so as posted by others.....the truth is somewhere in between and the best price is one that leaves both parties satisfied when completed.

I've found that lately the hyper inflated prices on GB (completed auctions only) etc. can be a starting point, but I sell pretty much only locally, or here on the Forum, and if you priced too high...nobody buys...so the "market" sets the real end price.

I quit buying Blue Book (Fjestad) years ago, but my old copy along with Standard Catalog of Firearms (Jerry Lee), Gun Digest, do have some good reference information, and like the miltary sections don't go out-of-date on serial numbers, variations, etc. but none are close in pricing.

Invest whatever the BB sells for today, in a membership to SWCA, and enjoy all the benefits of tremendous knowledge and help, right up to date, with the click of a mouse....including pricing! WE CAN HELP you spend your money if you are in a buying position, AND the Forum Guns for Sale sub set is a real good place to either move your guns, or find you are priced too high.

Just my $.02
 
The guides are a useful tool for comparing the average price of one model gun against another. A pre-model 27 will always hold an edge over a pre model 19 etc etc. and the percentage stays pretty consistent with time.

One thing I have found to ring true: the guides are "too low!" when you are selling...and "too high!" when you are buying. ;)
 
Miami_JBT said:
It is a tool and nothing more.
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Like the guy at the top of the ladder yelling down, "Get me a ratchet wrench from the bag in my truck."

So his helper yells back, "3/8" drive, or 1/2" drive?"

Guy on top yells, "Just get the ratchet, will you?"

Again, "3/8" drive, or 1/2" drive?"

Guy on top, "What difference does it make? I'm using it for a hammer."

The problem is not so much that the Blue Book is at least two years out of date, but that it wouldn't have been worth much two years ago, either.

Used to be that one might have some idea what guns sold for in stores, back when that was actually happening. Now you have to study on line, going for paid prices, not hoped-for prices.
 
When I was active buying guns for Resale,
I relied on the Knowledgeable Brother In Law.
I would make an offer and the Buyer would reply my BIL says it’s worth a lot more.
OK. Sell it to him.
He don’t buy Guns, he just knows a lot about their value.
The Blue Book is a form of the BIL,
It knows a lot about Guns but it don’t buy any.
 
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The BB provides a starting point as well as some potentially helpful information.

It remains very useful for working out trades sometimes. Recently had a guy wanting to trade a couple of Smiths for a gun I was selling...trouble is he offered his guns at full retail PLUS about 20% against my gun at wholesale. He also wanted $1000 boot.

I compared BB values across the board, as a consistent reference, to bring him down to earth. It worked, although not enough to where we worked out the trade.
 
Totally out of touch with accurate values on guns these days. I've noticed over the past several gunshows that some dealers have a copy that is four or five years old (or older) sitting on their table and when you approach them with a quality S&W handgun for sale, they pull it out, look up the gun you are selling, and then quote the price they would pay (which is way too low). I usually walk away but sometimes I can't help but suggest to them to get a current copy if they are going to use it to buy or sell their wares. I'm not against a dealer making a fair profit; they are not in business to just break even. But taking advantage of a person who does not know the fair value of their weapon to make an extremely high profit is not acceptable. I agree that people need to research the present selling prices for guns, but some don't. As mentioned, a current copy does not reflect an accurate price for guns these days. Dealers should be honest in their dealings with customers, but a lot of them are not.
 
One more thing to consider is location. Different calibers and guns are in demand in different locations. Example. A browning Belgian A-5 might bring $500 in CO, but will bring $695 in WVA. A single action Colt will bring more in Texas and Montana than in the Carolinas. The blue book is a good reference book on where to start, and for the info on individual guns. Nothing more. Did gun shows since 78 and never bought one. Borrowed a copy a few times though. the info in the front on grading is pretty spot on.
 
I think the Blue Book has useful information, you just have to realize it may be dated, and a lot of guesswork is involved. The thing in its favor is when you go to a gun show a lot of folks there are going to be working off of Blue Book numbers. The same thing can be said about internet auction site sales numbers. Also, on the internet, where you have a large audience you often encounter a deep-pocket buyer who just wants something and shady operators who are inflating the price in a fake sale, so they can sell it again in a couple of weeks. Collecting WW1 pistols is areal education into the shenanigans that go on.
 
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