A couple thoughts…
The first shooter who scores an effective hit normally prevails in a gun fight. Missing faster than the other guy at best just functions as suppressive fire.
All hand gun cartridges are arguably inadequate and will only effect a stop in one of three ways:
1) A neurological hit, where the bullet strikes the brain or central nervous system (upper portion of the spine).
2) A cardio vascular hit to the heart or the large vessels above the heart that rapidly reduce the blood pressure to the brain. Keep in mind however that “rapid” is relative. Even if you completely sever the arteries going to the brain, there is still enough oxygenated blood in the brain for the assailant to maintain consciousness for 10-15 seconds. Most deer hunters are also aware that a deer shot in the upper chambers of the heart can still run about 50 yards before it will go down, and if shot in the more muscular (and more self sealing) lower chambers of the heart can run about 100 yards before going down. And those are deer shot with rifle rounds.
3) a psychological stop. About half of all people shot, regardless of cartridge used, stop the assault and either surrender or retreat to avoid getting shot again. It muddles the handgun cartridge effectiveness data as all the cartridge has to do is have enough power to let the assailant know he’s been shot. .32 ACP and up are going to reliably do that. .22 LR and .25 ACP will do that most of the time. In other words, about half the time when an assailant is actually shot, the caliber doesn’t matter at all.
In all three cases accuracy is important as it’s more likely to either result in an effective hit, or more likely to result in the hit needed for a psychological stop.
But here in the US we tend to be more focused on worst case scenarios with multiple, drug affected assailants and are thus biased toward larger cartridges and high capacity handguns. Statistically they play a role in probably less than 5% of all self defense shootings and are decimal dust in the much larger range of defensive handgun shootings where the gun is much more likely to deter and assailant before it is even fired.
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Considerations in order of importance:
Fit
When selecting a self defense handgun and cartridge you need to start with a hand gun that fits your hand well. You should be Abel to grip it like you would drawing it from a holster and then be Abel to bring it up into your line of sight and have the sights be nearly aligned when it gets there with no effort on your part to adjust your grip. It doesn’t have to be perfect, but if the front sight is significantly higher than the rear sight it doesn’t fit. On some models different grips or grip panels might fix it, on most models however that isn’t the case.
It’s even worse if you bring the handgun up to your line of sight and you can’t see the front sight at all. Again, a change in grip panels, grips, or in pistols like the 1911 a fully arched rather than semi arched or flat mainspring housing might help. But probably not.
Run that test by looking at a target, then closing your eyes and drawing the gun and bringing it up to your line of sight before opening them again. If you can see both sights and they are fairly well aligned, it’s a good fit.
It’s also important that the trigger reach and grip circumference fit you as well. For a single action only pistol, like a 1911 or Hi Power, just having the pad of your trigger finger on the trigger is sufficient. However for a DA/SA or DAO pistol or revolver you need to be able to get your trigger finger on the trigger all the way up to the crease for the first joint. That’s the only way to have sufficient leverage to effectively control the DA trigger. Some models can be retrofitted with a short reach trigger kit to improve the trigger reach and a thinner grip can also help.
Grip wise, to be able to control a pistol, you should be able to hold the pistol and be able to touch your thumb and middle finger around the grip. Thinner grips might be sufficient to address this.
Model
Way too many shooters start their search for a specific model, often based on authoritarian arguments from the internet, recommendations of tactical instructors, because it’s what the police use, or just because it’s what their friends might use.
That’s ok, provided that model meets all of the fit criteria noted above. If it does not, you will never shoot it well and will never shoot it to the same level you’d shoot something that fit your hand and allowed a much more natural point of aim. In case you forgot, accuracy matters.
Ideally you’ll find a few to several models of decent quality handguns that fit you and you can then choose between them based on what ever other criteria you want to apply.
Size and weight
There’s always a trade off with size. Smaller and lighter handguns are easier to comfortably conceal and carry, and that’s important as if it’s not comfortable to carry, it will be at home in a drawer when you are out and about and suddenly need it.
On the other hand, smaller and lighter handguns are more difficult to shoot well and less comfortable to shoot. It’s a descending spiral as if it’s less comfortable to shoot it, you will shoot it less and never become as proficient with it. Even worse you may develop a flinch with it.
That’s where our cartridge preferences/ hang ups in the US can be a real problem. Shooters often want that easy to carry micro sized 9mm, a J frame sized .357 Mag, when the reality is they never get to the point of being able to shoot them well.
At the other extreme you’ve got the guys who want to carry around a 40 plus oz high capacity duty sized pistol with two spare magazines. Those are the guys equipping for that worst case scenario, when the reality is they will never encounter it, if they use good judgement and decent situational awareness to avoid situations where they are likely to encounter it. They generally forget or ignore that armed citizens are not police officers and do not go into dark and scary places looking for bad guys.
They do however end up with either poorly concealed weapons they can’t take with them many places, and or they end up with back pain and eventually have to get smarter and rethink their choices.
How will you carry it?
How you plan to carry also plays a role. I carried a Hi Power for years and carried a 1911 for years prior to that. I also carry a 3” Model 686+ in the winter and quite often on day hikes. They keys to comfort there are a very well designed holster along with a well designed and made carry belt that does a good job of evenly spreading the load.
There’s also the concealment issue. Too big and too bulky means it’s not concealed and cover garments are not the answer. For example last august it was about 98 degrees with 95% humidity and this guy gets out of his car and starts walking across the parking lot to the store in front of us. I asked my non gun carrying spouse what’s wrong with this picture. She immediately keyed on his unseasonable vest and correctly surmised he was carrying. So much for concealed carry.
I was carrying a Beretta 92 Compact that wasn’t exactly small, but it was still well concealed under a tee shirt, rather than a vest that screamed “cover garment”.
Cartridge
That’s where cartridge considerations become important. How small and light do you want to go and how much recoil can you realistically tolerate and sufficiently master?
That will drive your cartridge considerations to some extent.
Keep in mind that how the pistol operates also affects felt recoil. For example, I personally think the Bersa Thunder in .380 ACP has very objectionable recoil, and I’m not recoil sensitive. The combination of a hot defensive .380 ACP load in an alloy frame blow back operated pistol can be far more abusive than a delayed blowback locked breech 9mm pistol of the same size and weight.
Similarly, 17 oz delayed blow back locked breech Kimber Micro or Sig P238 has a perceived recoil very similar to a 31 oz steel frame blow back operated Walther PPK/S.
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In summary, start with fit, and then select from those models that fit you based on your size and weight requirements, and carry method - and then factor the cartridge into that decision.