You are correct, and I witnessed this firsthand. In March of this year while waiting for an order at a fast food restaurant, there was another customer who was OCing a Glock. Two masked black guys walked into the restaurant, went straight to the OC'er, put a gun to his neck, and took his gun off of him. I don't know how old the victim was or how long he has been OC'ing without an issue, but that particular day the wrong people must have spotted him walking into the restaurant and targeted him.
I remind you respectfully of the fallacy which is called survivorship bias. Also, I notice that you are using anecdotal evidence which is something we gun people do all the time, on a range of issues.
I don't mind and I don't try to change your mind because I have watched this dead horse get beaten again and again for so long, that I believe that almost nobody will change his mind based on this thread, one way or the other.
ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE
If my mind depends on stories, then I must learn ALL the other stories before I make up my mind. If there is a story of a crime being prevented because of open carry, then that cancels out the opposite story. If the story happened to me, but the opposite story happened to somebody else is that decisive?
Another consideration is that your anecdote is open to interpretation as you tell it. The OC people will say his situational awareness was off and how they always choose a seat where they can see everything etc. etc. Others will say that they will wait for the right moment when they pull out their BUG and start shooting. Liberals will say this is why nobody should even be allowed. Someone else will say at least everybody got home safe and that is all that matters.
SURVIVOR BIAS
If open carry has value, then part of that value must be in deterrence. However, the stories of successful deterrence do NOT get told. You can try to imagine that you are stopping bad guys, but how do you know? This phenomenon was discussed at length by John Lott in his wonderful book, "More Guns, Less Crime".
Victim selection criteria used by criminals is a very interesting subject. I recommend we put in some study before we conclude that open carry is a way to get targeted for crime. If you openly display anything of value like an expensive handbag from Saks Fifth Avenue, or a pair of Air Jordan tennis shoes or a handgun you could be targeted.
I you are bored with this OC thing, the most helpful site I can recommend is nononsenseselfdefense.com. If you read over there I would love to know your thoughts and/or criticisms.
Best Regards!
BrianD