COVID: Do the math

[CB3]

I apologize for not checking my math. My error has been pointed out. I believe there are still valid points in the post. If not, I'm fine with it being removed.

Today, Friday, March 27, 2020 11AM MST

We have had people dying from COVID in the US for a month now and have reacted medically, socially, economically and therefore financially to a medical challenge that is similar to many that have come before. As always, there have been unknown factors about this one, but good information is being developed every day.

Deborah Birx from Trump's CV team about significant reductions in forecasts of virus deaths:

[]'This is really quite important': Deborah Birx says administration looking into plummeting UK death toll

The media has basically taken the position that

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

which has managed to scare enough of our population into believing it is. It isn't. The federal government has gone into its usual knee-jerk reaction to help all of us, mostly ineffectively on the financial front, but we are happy idiots that someone is doing something for us.

We could have been prepared for this because of previous experiences. We now can overcome those deficiencies quickly if we give our citizens accurate, up-to-date info and let this wonderful country get things fixed. It's starting to happen, and that's good.

I'm sorry for those who have died and yet will die. I feel even worse for the millions who will be negatively impacted financially for many months or years.

That being said, here are the numbers today:



Total US deaths due to COVID: 1,371

Just for jollies, multiply that number by 1,000 for a guesstimate on future deaths, result: 1,371,000 (not necessarily realistic)

Divide that by the total population of the US, 330-million, to get the percentage of citizens (possibly) killed by the virus:

0.4

It's important to save lives. For 1% of our population to be killed by the virus, 3.3-million people would have to die. That's not going to happen.

So what about the negative impacts, especially financial, on the other 99%?

Let's discuss positive ways we can react in the future to such a threat without the cure being worse than the disease. I have a bunch of my own ideas but this post is already too long. Keep it positive.

 

[Watchdog]

The media has basically taken the position that

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

The media aren't the only ones.

 

[fordson]

Today, Friday, March 27, 2020 11AM MST

We have had people dying from COVID in the US for a month now and have reacted medically, socially, economically and therefore financially to a medical challenge that is similar to many that have come before. As always, there have been unknown factors about this one, but good information is being developed every day.

Deborah Birx from Trump's CV team about significant reductions in forecasts of virus deaths:

[]'This is really quite important': Deborah Birx says administration looking into plummeting UK death toll

The media has basically taken the position that

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

which has managed to scare enough of our population into believing it is. It isn't. The federal government has gone into its usual knee-jerk reaction to help all of us, mostly ineffectively on the financial front, but we are happy idiots that someone is doing something for us.

We could have been prepared for this because of previous experiences. We now can overcome those deficiencies quickly if we give our citizens accurate, up-to-date info and let this wonderful country get things fixed. It's starting to happen, and that's good.

I'm sorry for those who have died and yet will die. I feel even worse for the millions who will be negatively impacted financially for many months or years.

That being said, here are the numbers today:



Total US deaths due to COVID: 1,371

Just for jollies, multiply that number by 1,000 for a guesstimate on future deaths, result: 137,100 (not necessarily realistic)

Divide that by the total population of the US, 330-million, to get the percentage of citizens (possibly) killed by the virus:

0.0004

It's important to save lives. For 1% of our population to be killed by the virus, 3.3-million people would have to die. That's not going to happen.

So what about the negative impacts, especially financial, on the other 99%?

Let's discuss positive ways we can react in the future to such a threat without the cure being worse than the disease. I have a bunch of my own ideas but this post is already too long. Keep it positive.

1371x1000= 1,371,000.
Then 1.371M/330M = 0.0415x100= 4.15%
1% of 330M is 330,000.
Decimal points can be tricky.

 

[ContinentalOp]

Total US deaths due to COVID: 1,371

Just for jollies, multiply that number by 1,000 for a guesstimate on future deaths, result: 137,100 (not necessarily realistic)

Divide that by the total population of the US, 330-million, to get the percentage of citizens (possibly) killed by the virus:

0.0004

If you're going to argue based on math, the least you could do is do the math correctly.

 

[CB3]

If you're going to argue based on math, the least you could do is do the math correctly.

Correction made. Sorry and thanks.

 

[Absalom]

You can cheer yourselves up with whatever numbers games you want. Maybe then you can indeed be "happy idiots", as the OP put it so nicely.

If I have to choose between buying a storyline pushed by political operators with a clear agenda, or trying to filter my own picture out of a chaotic worldwide media landscape, I'll prefer the media anytime.

 

[BC38]

The media aren't the only ones.

Correct. They have managed to instill fear and panic in a large portion of our population, as evidenced by all the Corona threads here.

Funny thing is I've been saying the exact same thing as Deborah Birx and others inside and outside the administration for two weeks, and I've gotten TONS of grief for it. I've been accused of being cold hearted, and uncaring, and burying my head in the sand, and worse.

There are a number of things we need to do. Like create stockpiles of emergency supplies, and put some streamlined emergency protocols into place so the FDA isn't such an obstacle to our response when something like this happens. The other thing we need to do is to as citizens is to punish the media for their response to this whole mess. We cannot forget what they did to our country in pursuit of financial gain and their political agenda. We should boycott them into irrelevance and bankruptcy. They are already morally bankrupt, and we need to put them into financial bankruptcy, IMO.

 

[Czechvar]

The math mistakes in this Thread are giving me Covid19…

 

[windypoint]

Fordson wrote"

"1371x1000= 1,371,000.
Then 1.371M/330M = 0.0415x100= 4.15%
1% of 330M is 330,000.
Decimal points can be tricky. "

You dropped one as well. It is .0415% Less than 1/2 per cent.

 

[Rule3]

You can not realistically do any math as it is unknown how many people are infected?? Only a small portion have been tested. The "event" is not any where over yet.
How can you calculate morality if it is still an ongoing situation??.

What's an "acceptable" death rate?

Its just a WAG using some math to make it look realistic.


I do not think that the Hospitals near me have Triage tents outside the emergency room just for fun and practice games.

 

[coltle6920]

If it only saves one life... Well we know that mantra doesn't work.

I'm still waiting for the term "acceptable losses" to be used by some buffoon.

 

[Super Dave]

I'm in healthcare and taking this seriously. We have not had enough tests in the USA and numbers of active cases and deaths are underreported. Some countries have done well but the USA has not.

I know a healthy physician that caught it and he had never been so ill.

Please stay home and stay safe.

 

[Czechvar]

1% of 330M is 3.3M
.415% of 330M is 136,950,000
1,371,000/330,000,000 is .00415

 

[Rule3]

Maybe, just maybe the "drastic" actions taken by Federal and State Govt has reduced the spread somewhat??, But there is not gonna be a way to calculate that. What would be the infection rate yielding more deatsh if those actions were not taken???



It's like herding cats


Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

 

[LVSteve]

1% of 330M is 3.3M
.415% of 330M is 136,950,000
1,371,000/330M is .00415

Some of the mathematical slips and/or typos in this thread are hysterical.


0.415% of 330 million is 1,369,500, not over 136 million.

1,371,000/330M is indeed .00415, which when multiplied by 100 is 0.415%.

 

[Ziggy2525]

1% of 330M is 3.3M -- yes
.415% of 330M is 136,950,000 -- no
1,371,000/330,000,000 is .00415 -- yes

0.415% = .00415
0.415% of 330M = .00415*330,000,000 = 1,369,500
1,371,000/330,000,000 ~= .00415 ~= 0.415%

ETA - OOP's - posted mine while LVSteve was posting his

 

[Czechvar]

Yes, you got me...that little % sign changes the statement. Going forward, we should use Terms like "a lot", "bunches", and metric-poop-ton" instead of real numbers...

 

[Watchdog]

If I have to choose between buying a storyline pushed by political operators with a clear agenda...

Hold on a minute. You aren't suggesting something like that is going on in this country are you?

 

[andy52]

I worked for forty years in the food distribution industry and even retired have plenty of contacts still. Actual supply of most everything is not the problem there's plenty of TP to go around, the problem is time and transportation. Most grocery stores don't get deliveries base on single items. Their orders are base upon the total stock in the store. Lets say they have storage for 30 cases of TP that's all they will order, people rush into the store and clear the TP aisle in a couple hours the store may not get another shipment for a few days. No store is going to get a full semi load of just TP or anything else their not distribution centers.
I talked with some of the people I worked with at the distribution center , the men and women are working 24/7 to get these items out to the stores some are even sleeping on the premises so they'll be ready for the next shift. It's all about the time it takes to do all that.

 

[fordson]

Fordson wrote"

"1371x1000= 1,371,000.
Then 1.371M/330M = 0.0415x100= 4.15%
1% of 330M is 330,000.
Decimal points can be tricky. "

You dropped one as well. It is .0415% Less than 1/2 per cent.

Stand corrected.

 

[Tom K]

....
I'm sorry for those who have died and yet will die. I feel even worse for the millions who will be negatively impacted financially for many months or years.
....

You feel worse for people who may face some financial difficulty than those who die?

 

[BC38]

You feel worse for people who may face some financial difficulty than those who die?

In one sense I can kind of see what he means.
A few thousand whose suffering is over versus millions who will suffer years worth of harm.
Just a different way of looking at it I guess.

 

[Absalom]

In one sense I can kind of see what he means.
A few thousand whose suffering is over versus millions who will suffer years worth of harm.
Just a different way of looking at it I guess.

That kind of thinking, however, assumes an either-or choice which in reality doesn't exist.

The idea that we are faced with a simple choice of either shutting the country down and thus also harming the economy, OR not doing so and accepting that a certain percentage will suffer and/or die, but the economy will happily resume zooming along, is simplistic at best.

All models are hypothetical and can't be "proven", but it seems obvious to me that the virus, unchecked by decisive action, would have had long-term catastrophic impacts on the economy that could far exceed the sharp but likely short recession and high unemployment which the current measures are causing.

The government should not mishandle this, and a too-soon easing of restrictions could lead to a worse rebound of the virus that would likely lead to a long-term undermining of public confidence and inevitable economic contraction. People in doubt don't spend, and demand is the motor of any market economy.

 

[Watchdog]

The government should not mishandle this...

Oops.

 

[biku324]

101,000 infected, 1,400 dead and expanding exponentially.

 

[BC38]

101,000 infected, 1,400 dead and expanding exponentially.

Exponentially huh? What's the exponential factor and shat is the period of increase? A factor of 2 per day perhaps?
So tomorrow it will be a trillion infected and 1.96 million dead?

 

[biku324]

I try not to mock nor to denigrate the dead, nor to pretend there won't be a staggering amount of more dead.

 

[pharmer]

In one sense I can kind of see what he means.
A few thousand whose suffering is over versus millions who will suffer years worth of harm. Just a different way of looking at it I guess.

They are already boarding up/putting "for sale or lease" signs on marginal properties in this town. Another month strong businesses will be gone. The virus is a bad thing, bad things happen to all of us. Death ain't the worst thing that can happen just the last. If'n we learn anything as a Nation from this "crisis" it's that NOBODY is going to "save" you, we are all on our own. Act accordingly. Joe

 

[BC38]

I try not to mock nor to denigrate the dead, nor to pretend there won't be a staggering amount of more dead.

I wasn't mocking or denigrating the dead.
I was pointing out the irony of a hyperbolic misuse of a mathematical term in a thread that specifically refers to "do the math".
I guess you're refusing to see the irony, along with any other reasonable logical argument.
We all know it is going to get worse before it gets better.
Reciting the worst of the statistics and hyping them to try to prove yourself right is really disrespecting the loss of those lives.

 

[biku324]

Nope. The misery just gets worse.