Crazy run on primers...but not so much on powder?

[hammer 1]

In my area, it seems like powder is the shortage. Primers are still in stock at the local cabelas . I ordered a few pounds of h4350 from mid south a couple weeks ago. Could have used a few more pounds of h4895, but I'm not bad off. I have cold sweats when I get, what I consider, "low". 22 ammo, was God awful to find.

 

[Huskerguy]

Sadly, I'm quite cynical when it comes to these types of supply and demand questions. I remain convinced that (in normal, non-Covid, times) the manufacturers intentionally cut off the supply in order to get their prices (profit) up beyond the normal inflation factor. For example (and only ONE example) consider the fake shortage of .22 rimfire ammo a few years ago. They kept the supply 'off' for how many years? And then when a brick of .22's reached more than double the Walmart price (which was $14), the supply chain of 22's became instantaneously flooded. Primers will go from whatever they were before they shut them off to what I foresee at $40 - $50 per 1000. I have no more knowledge than the next guy, but let's figure on a 4 year dearth +/- Covid 19.
IMHO of course,
J.

Actually, if you do some research, you will find that manufactures plan to produce a set amount of product each year. They plan for the raw materials in this manner and anything that alters that demand puts pressure on the supply chain because raw supplies are already set aside.

The 22 shortage was because of an initial run on the ammo and then the manufacturers could not ramp up quickly enough - not enough raw materials were planned for. People, some shooters, some not, were buying up the product often times before it even hit the shelves. There were apps that could tell you what ammo and how much was in the truck headed to a destination. Had a guy as a store tell me someone came in and asked for some 22's and they said we are out. He said no, you have a case sitting in the back and he went back to find it. There was serious hoarding going on for 22's. I am guessing a lot of people on here stocked up after that or before but avoided, if possible, the high prices in the middle.

The same is going on with primers. They have models that tell them how many they can sell in a given year and plan raw materials for that. When the run comes, everyone panics and if they can find them, they are willing to pay extra.

I have spoken with suppliers and they told me the prices didn't go up from the supplier, they just can't get the product or very little of it. In some ways, we are our own worst enemy. My advice is to always plan 4-5 years ahead because we know there will always be another challenge in the markets.

 

[pasound]

The LGS and both chain outfits in my area have been short powder and primers for several months. My local Cabela's has a lot of brass and bullets, but nothing to load them with.

 

[DWalt]

For those who need SP primers and can't find any, just use SR primers instead - If you can find any. But from what I am reading here and elsewhere, it seems like similar scarcity exists for both SP and SR.

 

[flycaster]

My "local" Cabela's no longer stocks reloading supplies. And the nearest Bass Pro only had a handful of powders on a shelf- and none that I would need.

Chuck