How to lie with statistics

WuzzFuzz

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How to lie with statistics.

Fred, the town alcoholic has the Coronavirus...Fred gets into his truck and drives DWI...

While driving Fred hits and kills a kid on a bicycle.

The newspaper reads: Boy killed on his bicycle by a man with Coronavirus.

Or was it boy on bicycle killed by a drunk driver...What was the real cause of the accident? Just another number added to the statistic of someone killed by the coronavirus

So it sure would be informative to have the real numbers given.




Also...How is it possible for all the people to be diagnosed with the virus, when there is such a shortage of the testing kits....

Take for instance all of the deaths in Italy...Did they die at home, or in a hospital? If most of them died at home, then how is it known they had the virus, or just died at home from old age complications..(For what it's worth, I read where most of the deaths were in northern Italy, and were mostly amongst the elderly.)

Additionally, with all those deaths all over the world, and here in the states, with so many dying over night, then the morgue and the autopsies must really be back logged, in order for the autopsies be listed as the primary cause of death.

All I'd really like to know what are the true statistics of what's going on...

I read about some of the survivors and what they said their symptoms were. But even there I read of variances.


One state, the Gov says stand down. The next state over, says go and visit our wonderful parks.

I'm beginning to think it might be more entertaining to watch a chicken egg hatch than the wait and see what happens next, to whom, where, and when, and WHY.


Just thinking out loud.


WuzzFuzz
 
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How to lie with statistics.

Well, two things;

1) Even Dr. Fauci said that the statistics only as good as the data that's being put in.

2) There's a saying; Don't trust any statistic that you didn't manipulate yourself.

So it is what it is.... a very temporary display of somethings that's already outdated...
 
...

Take for instance all of the deaths in Italy...Did they die at home, or in a hospital? If most of them died at home, then how is it known they had the virus, or just died at home from old age complications..(For what it's worth, I read where most of the deaths were in northern Italy, and were mostly amongst the elderly.)
...

I heard yesterday with Italy a bunch (maybe most) of the elderly that died at home or in nursing homes early on were never tested postmortem and weren't included in Italy's corona death count. Italy may be under reporting. That whole "only as good as the data" can cut both ways.
 
May I point out, with all due disrespect, that the general principle applies to not just computers and statistical models, but even more so to the human brain:

Garbage in, garbage out. :D

There are plenty of threads on the forum currently illustrating the concept.

And computer models are at least based on replicable algorithms, and statistics are mathematically explainable and understandable if you’re smart enough.
 
Statistics!

Statistics can be "framed" to suit any viewpoint.

The story is told of two college fraternities that decided to have an annual baseball game. Call them the Alphas and the Betas.

Well, the Betas won that first game.

The Alpha newsletter to its alums described the outcome in these terms:

"In our first annual fraternity baseball tournament, we fought hard and came in a solid second. Our old rivals, the Betas, came in next to last."

John
 
Disraeli (at least it was attributed to him) claimed that there were "lies, damned lies and statistics" back in the 1800s. Another classic from the same era was the response of Queen Victoria on being told that the average number of children per married woman was 2 and 5/8ths. She wanted to know "how much money would be required to make it to 3?"
And I am an ex-Limey!! Dave_n
 
I heard yesterday with Italy a bunch (maybe most) of the elderly that died at home or in nursing homes early on were never tested postmortem and weren't included in Italy's corona death count. Italy may be under reporting. That whole "only as good as the data" can cut both ways.


See what I mean....I sure would like to have a truthful answer on how the so called stats are/were arrived at.:)


WuzzFuzz
 
This is a wonderful little book that’s been on the market since the 1950’s. I’ve used it in more than one trial to help jurors evaluate statistical evidence.

[ame]https://www.amazon.com/dp/0393310728/ref=cm_sw_r_sms_c_api_i_fc7HEbDNCSFWH[/ame]


Everyone should have a copy!
 
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"Some individuals use statistics as a drunk man uses lamp-posts — for support rather than for illumination."

Attributed to A. E. Housman.
 
May I point out, with all due disrespect, that the general principle applies to not just computers and statistical models, but even more so to the human brain:

Garbage in, garbage out. :D

There are plenty of threads on the forum currently illustrating the concept.
“If you’re smart enough” :rolleyes:

condescending adjective

con·​de·​scend·​ing | \ ˌkän-di-ˈsen-diŋ \
Definition of condescending
: showing or characterized by a patronizing or superior attitude toward others
 
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