The word is that ammunition manufacturers are fearing the "crash" and want to ease into supply normalization, rather than slam into the big dip that will eventually happen if the supply wind up gets to big. Like all run markets, the uptick of demand is temporary, and worst of all, self perpetuating. They know these high prices and shortages won't last, and to rush in with new supply would collapse the speculation and destroy the market, expected demand, and expected prices the new plants and production would be based upon. Capitalism does work, its that investors are smart enough not to sink money into a temporary market they know will never stand up. If the demand was permanent, you could easily bet that there would be a slew of new 22lr factories going up.
To the investor, the ammunition crisis is a glass hammer; if you try to take advantage of it and use it, it will simply break in your hand. The current shortages are artificial and run by speculators, and as soon as you put enough product back into the market to flood the speculators out, the artificial market collapses, and you are left with a normal market again, at best, or even a flooded market with even lower prices. By fixing the market problem, you destroyed the conditions you were basing the sustainability of the new factory on. In reality, its a sure loss.
We saw this with centerfire cartidges; once supply started to catch up, the speculator market started to implode, and there are many speculators out there sitting on tens of thousands, or perhaps hundreds of thousands, of rounds they bought at a high price betting on the speculator market to keep going forever. Once supply stabilized, prices began to drop like a stone, and are now normalized for many calibers. Once the speculators lost control, it was over, and so were the expected prices.
Rimfire will go the same route eventually. even though it is far worse with consumer demand, continued consumer hording, and speculators holding onto the market after being chased out of centerfire, and the kind of idiots who pay $80 online for a $20 brick knowing full well that their own actions are the reason the speculators are doing this in the first place. Most of all, no manufacturer wants to be left holding the bag when the whole thing implodes.
