- Joined
- Aug 9, 2005
- Messages
- 8,994
- Reaction score
- 11,146
Can't put a distance limit on any of this, though many like to. It's like knowing how you will react in a violent confrontation. You don't.
Interesting Averages for shots fired in a Self-Defense
- Thread starter chief38
- Start date
I agree with you. It’s a term that inaccurately describes what actually happens. However it has become a term of art so to speak in several communities and as long as people understand the idea I’ll use a term they know rather than neurological terms they do not. I gave up trying to reroute that train down the sight track a couple decades ago.
Sixth grade literacy issues aside, the average American isn’t well schooled in neurology and most just don’t care.
Consequently, most of the intended audience won’t understand it if we talk about processes in the cerebellum and motor cortex where the brain learns complex motor responses with repeated practice to the point those movements become very efficient and automatic. They also won’t be particularly interested that it forms the basis of unconscious competence in many physical activity from shooting to driving to flying.
“Muscle memory” is a term that offends folks 5at know better, yet it’s a term that right or wrong conveys the concept in minimum time and is colloquially understood,
One of the most important effects of this process is that it frees up “bandwidth” (to misuse another term people none the less understand) so that they have more mental capacity to focus on other things happening at the moment, like assessing the threat and what’s beyond the target rather than focusing on grip, sight alignment and trigger press.
Rodan
Member
This is a concept that is incredibly important, but rarely discussed in LE training, and it applies broadly... not just to firearms. The less conscious thought you have to give to 'running your body', the more your brain can 'work the problem'. It's my belief that many of the LE 'screwups' we see in videos these days is due to insufficient training... the officer in question was simply overwhelmed in the situation and their ability to make good decisions was hampered because they had to consciously think about too much at once.
My thoughts on statistics and 'averages'... preparing for best case is not preparing at all.
Most of the time a gun is used defensively (>90% depending on the study) it is not even fired.
The stats for civilians and cops are all over the place when it comes to how many rounds at what distances and how many hits are made when they are fired. NYPD has ranged from 4-8 shots per incident with hit ratios from 8-30% in their annual firearms discharge reports. Some agencies are better, some are worse.
Same for UIDs (unintentional discharges). NYPD's rate is usually about 15% of all shooting incidents (training and operational) are UIDs. For the DOJ (FBI, DEA, ATF, USM) in one five-year period it was over 30%. Some are better, some are worse.
You do the best you can with what you have. A South African Lt stopped 20 men with the 90mm gun of his armored car before he ran out of ammo. He stopped 11 more with his 8 shot compact 9mm pistol before he ran out of ammo for that. He stopped 2 more by running over them with his armored car. By then he was out of enemies.
The stats for civilians and cops are all over the place when it comes to how many rounds at what distances and how many hits are made when they are fired. NYPD has ranged from 4-8 shots per incident with hit ratios from 8-30% in their annual firearms discharge reports. Some agencies are better, some are worse.
Same for UIDs (unintentional discharges). NYPD's rate is usually about 15% of all shooting incidents (training and operational) are UIDs. For the DOJ (FBI, DEA, ATF, USM) in one five-year period it was over 30%. Some are better, some are worse.
You do the best you can with what you have. A South African Lt stopped 20 men with the 90mm gun of his armored car before he ran out of ammo. He stopped 11 more with his 8 shot compact 9mm pistol before he ran out of ammo for that. He stopped 2 more by running over them with his armored car. By then he was out of enemies.
That's one of the more important points that people mis understand.
Sure, you don't want to focus on the "normal" or "expected' scenarios to the complete and total detriment of all of the possible fringe scenarios - but you also don't want to weigh yourself down in preparation for highly unlikely fringe scenarios to the detriment of what you will most likely encounter - especially when you can mitigate the potential for those fringe scenarios.
In other words, then 90-95% of defensive handgun uses don't even involve firing the handgun, it really doesn't matter what caliber it is or how many rounds are in the magazine. All it needs to convey to the assailant is "you're about to get shot" and in those 90-95% of situations it's going to be sufficient to stop the assault as the assailant flees.
Consequently, one of the most effective decisions on defensive handgun choice is to choose one that is convenient enough that you'll carry it all day, every day. That's 90-95 percent coverage for all of the scenarios where you might need to defend yourself with a handgun.
A better handgun, better cartridge, larger magazine or more magazines can all help improve your odds for that last 5-10%, where you might need to fire, but only a tiny fraction of those will actually need a duty sized handgun and multiple high capacity magazines.
And again, there is nothing wrong with choosing to carry all that. But you do have to be aware that there is a point of diminishing returns. Beyond that point the weight and bulk of the chosen EDC make it less likely you'll carry it all day everyday. The EDC becomes far less concealable, creating other issues in terms of telegraphing you are armed and limiting the situations where you can be armed without creating other issues. And if you ever do have to use it, it will raise questions with the police, the prosecutor, the grand jury and potentially the jury about why you felt the need to go to the Piggly Wiggly armed like you were expecting to participate in a gang war.
In other words, sometimes too much is too much and if your alternative in those situations is nothing at all, you not only lose the very minimal gains for those fringe scenarios but you also leave yourself at a disadvantage for the car more likely 90-95% scenarios.
There's a sweet spot and that sweet spot will be different for different people.
the concept is applied frequently in cave diving (my main hobby), as well as aviation (current profession). Cave diving will get a poorly trained or untrained diver killed quicker than just about anything else on the planet.
Generally speaking experienced cave divers won't pay much mind to a knew cave diver for about 5 years - about how long it takes to ensure if you're still around your committed and at least minimally competent.
Way too many would be cave divers (and pilots for that matter) do what amounts to zero to hero training, collecting all the certifications in minimum time with no time between levels to integrate what they have learned and gain practical experience.
A big part of that integration and experience is just developing all the little skills that are chained together on a dive so that they are all unconsciously competent acts that require no mental bandwidth. That's critical as depths, distances, and conditions such as silt and restrictions become more demanding and require better judgement, all while dealing with some degree of impairment due to increased partial pressures of nitrogen, even on mixed gasses.
Add in things like side mount diving in very small passages, closed circuit rebreathers, and their monitoring and management requirements and it all quickly becomes over whelming to an insufficiently experienced diver, regardless of their training.
And that's the training fail in law enforcement. Taking a short course on a topic just isn't enough. It requires integration of what is learned with practice and repetition until its mastered to the point the offer doesn't have to think about the actions.
Rodan
Member
I first learned it racing motorcycles (another high-risk sport), and then took it to work with me and did my best to incorporate it in the training I developed for my agency.
Glenn E. Meyer
Member
Actual there is such a thing. But it's not in your muscles. You have sent of subcortical brain structures that store motor action programs. They are established by sufficient practice that the motor sequence is laid down. Cerebellum, basal ganglia - and other places. Your motor cortex on the top of your brain, gets input from your perceptual systems. Training enables the perceptual system to perceive threats and signal to the cortical motor systems to launch a command to the subcortical systems where the action pattern is stored and launched. Thus, you do not have to cognitively control each motion. When you are learning a motor program, you actively think about each motion - like your grip, trigger, sight acquisition. Then with lots of practice, it becomes automatic - hence the term automaticity, unconscious competence, etc. It's the way it works with most motor skills. Interesting neuroscience. But your actual muscles are just meat. Muscle memory is just a short hand but not understood.
As best I can figure, and we had the same problem coaching teens in basketball and soccer, what they are doing is making a mental aiming confirmation on the "feeling" of the muscles. It does not work partly because your muscles vary in strength and speed day to day and never exactly feel the same especially when the athlete varies the amount of stress or tension in the opposing muscles under stress of fatigue.
I really want to hear your idea RQ about what others mean, thanks!
BrianD
SGT ROCK 11B
Member
SGT ROCK 11B
Member
noun: muscle memory
- the ability to reproduce a particular movement without conscious thought, acquired as a result of frequent repetition of that movement.
"typing relies heavily on muscle memory"
I think reloading relies heavily on muscle memory too.
I have often thought about how it is that re-curve bow archers have success with instinctive shooting, but with a handgun it just does not work.
^^^^^^^^ exactly. I can’t count how many deer I’ve killed and don’t remember shouldering rifle or flipping safety off. “It just happens”……. As to averages, I always practice at 50 yds with my P365. As mentioned it makes 25 seem like kids play.
Andre_Coop
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2015
- Messages
- 27
- Reaction score
- 11
I don't disagree with that. However, state police and prosecutors likely will.
There is a point in distance when self-defense converges to assault, and most prosecutors focus on 10m.
Granted, I've been retired for 20 years, after 23 years in uniform, but weekly range sessions keeps me exactly "knowing" how I'll react!
From my experience the problem is most shooters don't have a clue how to know when a weapon fits their hand and that means trigger finger, wrist and arm.
RevV67
Member
- Joined
- May 18, 2025
- Messages
- 51
- Reaction score
- 102
An Official Journal Of The NRA | The Statistics of Self-Defense: Don't Bet Your Life on Averages
Don’t base your self-defense strategy on the average anything. You’re not average, right?www.shootingillustrated.com
I just found this article a few minutes ago and though it to be interesting enough to post here. I know there are always discussions here about the number of rounds contained in a specific pistol or revolver ( the will be it enough discussions ) and many quote the statistics of SD shootings recored. Carrying a reload or not is also a popular subject brought up as well. I am not posting this to convince anyone set in their ways or change anyones daily EDC habits, I just thought this might be a "food for thought" article that is somewhat well written.
Good article. Thanks!
On muscle memory , Back in the dark ages before night sights , my Department would do night fire training. This involved a trail and pepper popper targets. If you had done a lot of daylight shooting all you had to do was look at the target that you could make out and draw into your stance and fire and more often than not the target was hit. Your stance lined up the sights enough without seeing the sights. Call it what you will ,but something caused that!
And then blame the gun for their poor accuracy.
Oh I think there are a lot of people who know exactly how they’ll react in a violent confrontation. I don’t think there’s a difference in a street fight or gun fight in this regard. Some guys are wired different. They don’t have to think. They react.
Thanks for posting that, Sheriff Jim Wilson always has something interesting to say. When I saw the title of the thread I was about to say - I've never seen an "average" gunfight - but Jim said it in his article.An Official Journal Of The NRA | The Statistics of Self-Defense: Don't Bet Your Life on Averages
Don’t base your self-defense strategy on the average anything. You’re not average, right?
I just found this article a few minutes ago and though it to be interesting enough to post here. I know there are always discussions here about the number of rounds contained in a specific pistol or revolver ( the will be it enough discussions ) and many quote the statistics of SD shootings recored. Carrying a reload or not is also a popular subject brought up as well. I am not posting this to convince anyone set in their ways or change anyones daily EDC habits, I just thought this might be a "food for thought" article that is somewhat well written.
I had a student once who showed up to class the second day with a .38 spl round that was cut off to about a third length - my co-instructor had mentioned the day before that the average gunfight saw the defender use 2.3 rounds (this was about 1980 beforethe majority of LE agencies adopted autos - some had). At any rate the student's point was "why carry more weight than you need?" (of course he didn't belive that either )
Riposte
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
Ruger Blackhawk Old Model Purchase
- Latest: FlattopPat69
-
-
Any Ruger Blackhawk aficionados ....
- Latest: FlattopPat69
-
-
-
-
-
New here trying info on 4-digit serial # 32 Spec CTG
- Latest: Delta Expatriate
