For what it's worth, my experience with very long bullets in 2" Smith & Wesson .38 SPLs.
In the mid-'70s, I became interested in heavy for caliber .38s after discovering that my grandfather carried a 4" Regulation Police in three campaigns in the Pacific in WW2. It was loaded with British service ammunition and in fact he had to use it once, in 1945. He thought it met his needs very well.
I tried several different bullets, ranging from 168 grs to 200 grs. Velocities ran from around 600 fps to perhaps 775-800 fps, in aa 4" bbl (No way to measure back then. It was all guess work.) Velocities in 2" bbls were of course less, but I can't say how much.
I discovered a couple of things.
While they wern't bad in a 4" M&P or an Official Police, recoil in small frame revolvers was an issue. In a 2" M36 or Detective Special it was abusive with any load that went much above 700 fps. Keep in mind I was 26-27 years old at the time and would have eaten worms and died before I admitted that anything kicked too much for me to handle.
The other thing I discovered was that long for caliber bullets in a short bbl Smith & Wesson .38 Spl might or might not stabalize enough to hit the target nose on. The rate of twist in the Smiths I was using was (I think) 1:18 3/8s. In the short tube, it would not always provide enough spin, depending on the velocity. This was not an issue with Colts, which had a faster rate, 1:14. The longer the bullet, the worse the problem. Anything over 170 grs was suspect, often showing signs of yaw on impact. The 200 gr bullets would often print a perfect bullet profile on the paper.
Any bullet that strikes sideways is not going to penetrate at all.
I have noticed a similar situation with the long copper bullets in .38 Spl. They seem to need a certain minimum velocity to stabalize, at least in short bbl Smiths. I have not noticed the problem in 3" or longer tubes.
All this seems to be some what gun specific, so if you do go to a heavier bullet, make sure that the holes in the target, made by your gun, are perfectly round.
Charles