Revised- additional insight added
357 sig is nearly a dead caliber. It offers no real performance advantage for personal protection vs 9mm, it cost more, has more recoil, and lower capacity.
That is not true in my opinion. Let's say you lose a loved one in a gunfight but you could go back in time and provide him or her with a 4-5% advantage minimum. Would it be worth it? I say "yes." The Buckeye Firearms Association study is far from perfect, but it does suggest there is at least a modest advantage to .357 SIG (though it might be more than that which I will get to later:
An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power | Buckeye Firearms Association).
For example, the data suggests the following after evaluating about 1800 people shot with various calibers (which is far superior to any FBI ballistic gel test):
1) It takes 2 rounds on average to stop someone with .357 SIG/Mag whereas 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP each tend to take 3 rounds on average (again, we're talking averages). This makes up for any loss in capacity.
2) The failure to incapacitate rate beats .44 Mag, it even marginally beats shotguns (or is at least within the margin of error), and is on par with centerfire rifles. This is only a modest advantage but an advantage nonetheless.
3) .357 SIG is about 7% more accurate than 9mm or .40 S&W (note: though not superior to .45 ACP which, coupled with its potential as a vastly superior subsonic suppressor host, still makes .45 ACP a viable round in my opinion).
4) One-shot-stop are 10% better for .357 SIG over 9mm.
5) The percentage actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) is 14% greater for .357 SIG over 9mm.
6) .357 SIG is about 10% more lethal than 9mm.
7) .357 SIG rounds feed more reliably than 9mm and most other calibers because of its bottleneck design (do we have a modern rifle round that lacks a bottleneck design?). The reason for this is that K.E. = 1/2 mass x velocity squared. In other words, increasing velocity builds energy much faster and more efficiently than increasing mass (which produces more recoil). By enlarging the case beyond the diameter of the bullet, ammunition manufacturers can create bullets for short action systems that are more ballistically ideal (like those in short action rifles/carbines and pistols). The extra bonus is that bottlenecked bullets chamber more easily than straight-walled cartridges (for reasons similar to the benefits of beveling a magazine well for inserting mags).
Remember, a .357 SIG bullet IS a 9mm bullet. As such it can do anything a 9mm bullet can do and more because you can drive the bullet faster by including more powder. I find it silly that so many people (and departments) find it advantageous to run +P 9mm ammunition over standard pressure but they don't think there is an advantage to .357 SIG. You can load .357 SIG to the equivalent of standard pressure 9mm, or you can load it to be significantly more powerful than 9mm +p+ ammo.
.357 SIG also does NOT have more recoil. A 124 gr. 9mm and a 124 gr. .357 SIG has the same recoil because they have the same mass. What .357 SIG will have is more muzzle blast because you're loading the same .355" diameter bullet hotter. Like recoil, however, this can be mitigated with extra weight, especially at the front of the pistol (just as weight can mitigate a higher bore axis). It can also be mitigated by porting. Jerry Charles Miculek, Jr., by the way, even to this day ports or Magnaports all of his concealed carry firearms! He can shoot flatter and faster than most people without it, but he nonetheless maintains there is a strategic advantage to it. As he states, he likes to "cheat" as much as possible to send as many rounds at an adversary as possible, and if it was realistically dangerous to port pistols, he would know by now after having done this for decades already shooting hundreds of thousands if not millions of rounds.
In fact, some .357 SIG rounds are both more powerful and have less recoil than your standard self-defence 9mm rounds. My SIG P229 is loaded by my bed with 65 grain Underwood Xtreme Defender rounds that are rated at 2100 fps with 636 ft. lbs. of muzzle energy and it is very tame because the bullets are so light. I remember the first time I shot it I was like, "That's it?" It's no coincidence that the venerable .357 Magnum round revered by law enforcement for decades hovered close the 600 ft. lb. mark that hardly any of the commercially available 357 SIG rounds reach. That might mean that, had it not been the norm that .357 SIG rounds barely break 500 ft. lbs. of muzzle energy (that is to say, if it was the norm that they far exceeded that in MUZZLE energy and DELIVERED 500+ ft. lbs. of energy), the Buckeye firearms Study may have shown .357 SIG to have less than a 9% failure to incapacitate rate (which was already unsurpassed by even shotguns and rifles). How could it beat those results? Again, for the same reason it beats .44 Magnum. Rifles and shotguns, and even .44 Magnum and other powerful revolvers and pistol cartridges (like the .50 Action Express) are so much more powerful than 9mm, .40 S&W, .45 ACP and .357 SIG that you reach a point of diminishing returns. Coupled with the fact that we know law enforcement loved the ballistics of .357 Magnum that the .357 SIG can match or exceed (but seldom does commercially for some strange reason), it is a good bet both the former and the latter are actually the best self-defense rounds we could use for typical self-defense ranges (.357 SIG being even better because we can shoot it from semiautomatic pistols).
Granted, I would say for the average shooter, they can control a comparably-sized and commercially available 9mm round easier than a .357 SIG because of the muzzle blast (again, comparing same-size/weight projectiles), but you can also say that comparing standard pressure versus +p or +P+ 9mm ammunition (and you can also load .357 SIG to be as soft-shooting as any 9mm because, again, it is a 9mm). Personally I felt the Glock 33 I used to own was too snappy for someone like me that doesn't shoot all that much (I don't even go monthly anymore). The G33 is a Glock 26 chambered in .357 SIG. This is why I only have my 33 ounce SIG P229 chambered in .357 SIG which makes shooting that round a pleasure even with a bullet rated with 636 ft. lbs. of energy. A 4.25" or 5" full-size M&P, however, would likely handle the .357 SIG round very well. I'm not sure what the weight is, but I know my M&P9 M2.0 Subcompact is heavier than my Glock 19's. As such, the full-size and longslide M&P's will be even heavier than that (keep in mind when researching weights on Smith & Wesson's website that some of the time they print the weight of an unloaded pistol without the magazine. An unloaded Shield, for example, is 20.3 ounces with a flush magazine and NOT 18.3 ounces as published). That said, I might even still prefer my Subcompact in 9mm, but I would certainly favor a full-size M&P in .357 SIG. In fact, I'd probably prefer my Subcompact in .357 SIG if it was ported like my Shield (which might handle the muzzle blast well enough as well).
With .357 SIG we're not even talking about bullets as heavy as .40 S&W which most people can handle (which I also carried exclusively for 8 years). In my opinion, .357 SIG is easier to shoot than .40 S&W and just as easy as 9mm depending on the ammunition. In other words, some people prefer reduced "recoil" 9mm rounds (e.g. the pink Hornady box) which are lighter/weaker loads. Since .357 SIG is 9mm, you can load it the same way if you so choose.
Now the Buckeye Firearms Association study is limited as I mentioned. One of the limitations is that we have no idea what specific rounds were used in each caliber. Most commercially available .357 SIG rounds are loaded to create barely more than 500 ft. pounds of muzzle energy. This edges out the vast majority of .40 S&W and .45 ACP rounds (and certainly eclipses the 9mm Parabellum), but it is hardly reflective of what the .357 SIG is capable of. The Underwood STANDARD PRESSURE rounds rated at 636 ft. lbs. are more powerful than most commercially available 10mm rounds. Similarly, 10mm rounds can also be loaded much more powerfully in standard pressure cartridges, but because it tends to be a heavier bullet, it runs a greater risk of over penetrating (which is why .44 Mag doesn't stop people better than 9mm in the study).
.357 SIG is a superior round in my opinion, but when you have to issue firearms to both men and women of various sizes and skill levels, commercially available 9mm is a better universal round if you need to have everyone shooting the exact same cartridge, but I would argue .357 SIG would be superior for many if not most civilians who are not saddled with that logistical prerequisite if it was more popular to bring the price down (again, I think the expense is more about politics than materials & economy of scale, but if it was more popular we still might mitigate the prohibitive price. We can also practice with 9mm like LEO's practiced with .38 Special in their .357 Magnum revolvers). Again, .357 SIG is superior in many cases because it can do anything a 9mm can do and more. The only exception in my opinion is in lighter guns not specifically built to mitigate the extra muzzle blast (e.g. lacking porting). So 9mm would never be obsolete in single stacks, micro compacts, subcompacts, and compacts (or even full-size pistols for many), but I could see .357 SIG becoming very popular if people understood ballistics better (and the constraints LEO's and the military are under).
Certainly shot placement is more important than caliber, there's no doubt here, but that isn't where the story ends in my opinion, and it can even be argued beyond the points I've mentioned herein if we start discussing the ever controversial hydrostatic shock theory. I am not going to do that at length because I am trying to stick to what we've seen in a study of 1800 people actually being shot with various calibers (rather than merely considering tests on animals or observations from WWII medical doctors supporting hydrostatic shock theory), but if people want more insight into what hydrostatic shock might do, they can read the West Point study here:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0803.3051.pdf (at least get through the section about why it is claimed to be a myth by the FBI if you're unwilling or able to read the whole thing).
People in forums have claimed to have debunked this study, but I have never read any compelling evidence to support this claim, and I know that when the FBI reverted back to 9mm in recent years, it was still quoting the antiquated report written by one of their agents outlining the opinions of a doctor lacking the technology to observe hydrostatic shock in the 1970's & 1980's (as mentioned in this study), so you can draw your own conclusions about what you read in forums (which is why I've included at least two studies in my post not wanting to be guilty of the same [one that also references additional studies]). That said, I know many studies are full of it, so I am always in favor of additional legitimate research.
But like I said, not even considering hydrostatic shock, the Buckeye Firearms Association study demonstrates the potential superiority of the .357 SIG round in my opinion. If one is also to accept the conclusions from Courtney & Courtney in the West Point study, however, it gets even better because the vast majority of commercially available .357 SIG ammunition does not DELIVER 500+ ft. pounds of energy as the study predicts is necessary for depending on the effects of hydrostatic shock (the commercial stuff mostly only meets 500 ft. lbs. of MUZZLE energy). Some Underwood ammunition, however, can reliably deliver well over 500 ft. lbs. of energy as it starts with a muzzle energy that exceeds 600 ft. lbs. as I mentioned earlier. If Courtney & Courtney are right, then .357 SIG might be a caveat regarding shot placement if we can believe what researchers in the US and China found studying the phenomenon after the FBI abandoned the idea of adopting that round before the technology was widely available for testing & observing it. Canines and swine, for example, were incapacitated merely by shots in the rear leg which would be a game changer, but you need to deliver these powerful rounds without dumping the energy because of over penetrating. This may be where .357 SIG can succeed whereas 10mm and .44 magnum fall short as heavier bullets exceeding the .355" diameter of 9mm don't have the ballistic coefficient due to both their extra mass & bulk which prohibits delivering the required energy without over penetration (i.e. as they are less aerodynamic).
Again, we don't even have to mention hydrostatic shock to appreciate .357 SIG, but if we were to conduct more studies into it, we might find that .357 SIG might indisputably be the best self-defense round (bar none). But because of the FBI myth and people hating on Courtney & Courtney (at least the husband), we certainly need more research in this area considering what I have mentioned herein. For all I know the industry is sitting on additional studies proving the effectiveness of .357 SIG and hydrostatic shock because, once 9mm pistol buying has plateaued, it might be a way to legitimately revive gun sales later on. After all, we cannot easily convert most 9mm pistols to .357 SIG like we can convert .40 S&W to .357 SIG or 9mm.
Okay, I promise, I am done editing now. I'm sorry to go so long, but I wanted to get my argument out there with the hopes at least someone will read it in its entirety.
