There really hasn't been any "evolution in velocity" per se. The .357 Magnum was originally developed using Lead bullets in an 8 3/4" (Not 8 3/8"!) barrel. At that time the standard advertised velocity was 1520 FPS +/-, which generated 800 FPE. I have always wondered if this was really rounded off because 800 sounds like so much more than 795, and the 1520 wasn't "Backed into".
Now most ammunition is loaded with jacketed bullets that have a much higher coefficient of friction than Lead alloy bullets. All things being equal you will lose ca. 100 FPS just changing to a jacketed bullet. Then shorten the barrel and give up another ca. 25-50 FPS per inch and you get what? Well, 1520 FPS, minus 100 FPS for the jacketed bullet, minus (round 8 1/4 to 9") 25-50 FPS/inch = 125 to 250 FPS for a 4" barrel. What do we have? 1520-225 to 350 FPS = 1295 to 1175 FPS. What do the factories claim for their 158 JHP/JSP loads in a 4" barreled revolver, 1250 FPS, right about in the middle of the calculated velocity range!