Multiple Assailant Situations

[TexasArmed]

I was browsing around and found some info on another site about the chances of a shooter when taking on multiple bad guys. These stats assume that two hits are required to stop
one assailant, which does not seem unreasonable, and on
law enforcement shootings. It assumes a 30 percent hit ratio
Here is what I saw, cannot vouch for how accurate it might be.
But I normally carry two revolvers with ten rounds before reaching for a speed loader.

I am curious what some of you think who carry only a single revolver with think of this analysis. Are you better than the average law enforcement shooter? When it comes to taking out two assailants it appears to me that unless you are your chances of surviving such an encounter are much less if there are two assailants and you have only one five shot revolver.
I sometimes carry only one.

So if a two revolver person like me switched to semi automatic
what is the simplest semi automatic and caliber what would
you recommend? I think my hit ratio might be better than 30
but with a 38 Special as one of my guns it probably might take
two hits to neutralize an assailant. My primary carry gun is the
CA 44 Bulldog. If I made the switch it would be for the primary
carry gun to a semi? That stats I looked at are below and I
am very much a revolver man.

For a single assailant and a 30% hit rate probability.
# of Shots : Probability of achieving 2 or more hits.
5 : 47.2%
6 : 58%
7 : 67.1%
8 : 74.5%
9 : 80.4%
10: 85.1%
11: 88.7%
12: 91.5%

For two assailants and a 30% hit rate probability.
# of Shots : Probability of 4 or more hits (i.e. 2 on each assailant).
5 : 3.1%
6 : 7.1%
7 : 12.6%
8 : 19.4%
9 : 27%
10: 35%
11: 43%
12: 50.8%

 

[petepeterson]

LEO hit rates should be substantially lower than a CCW holder, I would think, due to the distances involved. Not saying it wouldn't happen, but I'm not sure why I would be shooting much past 10-15 ft, and I would expect better than 30%. My expectations may be greater than my ability when the balloon goes up, though.

 

[BAM-BAM]

Don't know that I've ever seen a statistic of hits on shots at less than 10 ft. ; or 5 yards.

 

[OKFC05]

The top factor in a shooting is the awareness, training, and skill of the individual. The most important thing about the hardware is that it works.

Local police force literally cornered a violent armed suspect in the outside corner of a building and 7 officers fired over 40 shots. Two bullets struck and dropped the suspect....BOTH FROM THE SAME GUN. Statistics are meaningless in an individual case.

I teach statistics in college, and what you need to understand is that statistics applied to sample of ONE have ZERO CONFIDENCE FACTOR.
Statistics only apply for large samples, not for a specific cases. A cancer patient is not going to 80% live and 20% die; he is either going to live or die, a binary result. Of 1000 cancer patients, you can calculate perhaps that 80% lived, or whatever the number for that group.

If you want to talk statistics, most careful individuals who carry a gun NEVER are involved in a shootout. Just like most people who carry fire insurance never have their house burn down. We are talking about reducing risk in relatively rare circumstances. The top risk reduction factor is the training and awareness of the individual carrying a weapon. In a crisis, we fall to the level of our training and practice, at best. Practice standing flatfooted taking careful aim at a small target and that is what you will do when you should be heading for cover and taking flash COM shots.

 

[Donn]

There are any number of videos on You Tube, showing real world shooting situations involving two or more bad guys. I have yet to see one where the bad guys pressed the attack once the shooting started. As soon as shots were fired and especially if a bad guy went down, the rest turned tail and headed for the tall and uncut. Not saying it could never happen, I haven't seen one yet.

 

[Rastoff]

So if a two revolver person like me switched to semi automatic
what is the simplest semi automatic and caliber what would
you recommend?

For someone familiar with a .38 revolver, I would recommend the M&P 9c. The caliber and associated recoil will be similar to the revolver. It can be had without a thumb safety. It's relatively small and concealable.

However, my first suggestion would be not to switch. If you're familiar with the revolver, switching to the semi-auto will take some time and practice.

I think my hit ratio might be better than 30...

How do you know? I'm not trying to attack you with this. It's a proficiency question I ask myself every time I go to the range, "Am I really ready to defend myself? How accurate and fast am I with those two first shots without warm up?"

If you haven't ever used a shot timer, try it. It will add some pressure to your shooting. Of course nothing is like the real thing, but the timer is at least some pressure.

 

[John R]

I was browsing around and found some info on another site about the chances of a shooter when taking on multiple bad guys. These stats assume that two hits are required to stop
one assailant, which does not seem unreasonable, and on
law enforcement shootings. It assumes a 30 percent hit ratio
Here is what I saw, cannot vouch for how accurate it might be.
But I normally carry two revolvers with ten rounds before reaching for a speed loader.

I am curious what some of you think who carry only a single revolver with think of this analysis. Are you better than the average law enforcement shooter? When it comes to taking out two assailants it appears to me that unless you are your chances of surviving such an encounter are much less if there are two assailants and you have only one five shot revolver.
I sometimes carry only one.

So if a two revolver person like me switched to semi automatic
what is the simplest semi automatic and caliber what would
you recommend? I think my hit ratio might be better than 30
but with a 38 Special as one of my guns it probably might take
two hits to neutralize an assailant. My primary carry gun is the
CA 44 Bulldog. If I made the switch it would be for the primary
carry gun to a semi? That stats I looked at are below and I
am very much a revolver man.

For a single assailant and a 30% hit rate probability.
# of Shots : Probability of achieving 2 or more hits.
5 : 47.2%
6 : 58%
7 : 67.1%
8 : 74.5%
9 : 80.4%
10: 85.1%
11: 88.7%
12: 91.5%

For two assailants and a 30% hit rate probability.
# of Shots : Probability of 4 or more hits (i.e. 2 on each assailant).
5 : 3.1%
6 : 7.1%
7 : 12.6%
8 : 19.4%
9 : 27%
10: 35%
11: 43%
12: 50.8%

Unfortunately most people are, a lot of the cops out there today are not shooters.
They shoot a few times a year only because they have to.

 

[mc5aw]

Years ago when I attended Thunder Ranch for the first of two Defensive Handgun courses, I was subjected to a highly stressful training drill called the Charging Deck. Two shooters were stationed side-to-side, facing a pair of motorized targets that would "charge" at differing speeds to simulate a rushing attacker. We were tasked with drawing our handguns, barking out a "halt" command, and back pedaling to create distance, all while trying to put as many rounds on target as quickly as possible. I have never forgotten how fast 20' vanishes in a simulated SD scenario. I was a reasonably proficient shooter back then, and quite competent with my SIG 228s, but the Charging Deck was nerve-racking ... it gave an excellent approximation of what a real life situation might entail with a determined and advancing opponent. After the Charging Deck, I stopped paying too much attention to ballistics, and shooting %s as there are far too many variables in a real life occurrence to put my faith in statistical generalizations.

With the Charging Deck drill, I was well aware of my target, its approach, and the skills I needed to practice to be successful in the training exercise. Even then, it was stressful as Hades. In real life, a motivated assailant will most likely appear unexpectedly, trying to catch the prey item by surprise. One BG would be tough enough, but two or three would be a supreme challenge. My goal is to get out of Dodge ASAP, and to safety. If shots are to be fired, it will be under severe stress, and then only those that find their mark count. With a revolver, by itself or with a BUG, I have ~15 rounds at my disposal, so spray and pray is not a luxury I'll have. It will be fast, it will be ugly, and it will be over quick. I hope I'm on the winning side should such an encounter befall me.

As to switching to semi-auto from wheel gun, the only one I would consider is the Springfield XDS in .45. I had one and sold it, but it was a very nice pistol ... perfect for CCW, and it spit out big .45 ACPs. I would never CCW a 9mm ... no way, no how. As I prefer revolvers, I am committed to my J-frames, 686 snub, and 696 for everyday carry as the mood hits me. I'm waiting on a holster for my 520, which I will experiment with as a CCW since it holds a half dozen .357 mags. I have also worn my 624 snub under a coat, and it carries well enough to be another option. I figure a round or two of .44 Special HPs will send a powerful message to a would-be attacker. If not, I best get to cover or a long gun mighty fast, as the poop has indeed hit the prop.

 

[STCM(SW)]

"Unfortunately most people are, a lot of the cops out there today are not shooters.
They shoot a few times a year only because they have to."


That's been true for many years.

 

[vipermd]

TexasArmed: As OKFC05 statistics are interesting though can be misleading. A 1 out of 1000 patients may have a stroke when give "clotbusters", while the other 999 and get improvement of the clogged arteries. If you are one of the 999 life is good, not so much for the other one. For the LEO stats I did not see what distances were used, nor were BG's shooting back. Skill level among LEOS varies, because of many variable. I started as a revolver shooter nearly 40 yrs ago and prefer them, unfortunately my pants start to fall down when I have a 44 spec snub in rt front and 638 in left front pocket, plus 2 speedloaders for both, so lately due to back pain the 44 spec in the safe, 638 in the pocket and my SigmaF 40 in a good holster with great belt have taken its place. A [email protected] = 10.89mm, my follow up shots with a 624 3" are faster than a glock 10mm 4". Since I do not know of any 44 spec auto loaders I would suggest M&P, Glock, Springfield XDM in 40/45, depending which fits your hand, how you hit with them. Unless I am focusing very hard I shoot high with glock 22,23, while I can shoot MY SigmaF 40 faster, more accurately, it's trigger is more like a revolver for ME. Try a few, hope none of us need to face 1 or multiple assailants, but it is still better to have thought about it, have a plan even if it does turn to ****. Be Safe,

 

[TexasArmed]

Thanks for the responses. I am aware that the distances law enforcement shoots at and CHL holders may shoot at could vary a lot.
With all the flash mobs and now recent terrorist attacks by professing
jihadists, I am rethinking my long held decision to carry two revolvers.
So should I switch my main carry to a semi automatic I have not given
much thought to which semi automatic would be best. I would probably look for one that was light enough to carry but would be equivalent to
a 44 special. Since all of my ammo is 38 spl, 44 spl and 45, I would
look for one that used those calibers. I had a recent cataract surgery
now see 20/15 in my shooting eye, and am looking toward range
practice again before I make any decisions on a new firearm.

 

[WR Moore]

I was browsing around and found some info on another site about the chances of a shooter when taking on multiple bad guys. These stats assume that two hits are required to stop
one assailant....

You can stop right there. You cannot assume that an assailant will stop with 2 hits. Even 2 good hits. They may stop eventually, the issue is will they stop quickly enough to preserve your good health.

Hit percentages can be all over the place. I saw NYPD stats where in some years the hit percentage was in single digits. I've read SOP-9s where there were NO hits at 6 feet (although estimates of distance under stress are not reliable-not sure where they got the distance determination).

I wouldn't worry overmuch about caliber, bullet weight, velocity etc. What's important is your ability to control the weapon and place rounds in vital areas of the target quickly. Don't depend upon having 2 hands available to control the weapon, the other hand may be occupied with other tasks.

 

[BAM-BAM]

Just realized something is missing in the equation and discussion so far; that could have a great impact......... let me throw it out.......

The "Why" are you being attacked?

A "mugger/ burglar" or 2 or 3 might turn and run at the sight of a gun or the first shot or hit........as their motivation is some quick cash or maybe rape....... move along nothing worth getting shot for here.......LOL

Flash mob....... maybe will disperse at the first gunshot. They are just out for a "good time"

Someone who's really ____________ off at you for whatever reason; maybe mixed with alcohol or drugs... may remain aggressive longer......he's there to kick your butt.

A Terrorist, Mall or School shooter or some "lone wolf" or other nut case probably won't stop until they are put down. He/she/they are there to Kill and or be killed.

Some thoughts to add to the discussion..........

Edit; the last group in all probability will have long guns and be shooting first......at a greater distance.

 

[vipermd]

My one and only semi auto 45 is a Para Ordnance Carry-12 LDA. Night sights, SS, 3.5" bbl, 12 +1 of 45 and it shoots like a revolver. Be Safe,

 

[vipermd]

BAM-BAM: I was originally from eastern Pa and do not believe the why is that important. Mugger- 2 to chest, 1 to head, if the others run, it gives me time to reload, call 911. Flash Mob- 2 to the chest, 1 to the head, if the others run, it gives me time to reload, call 911, if they continue to come ( a-la-Zombies ), keep shooting, till dry, pull second gun and repeat. You see my mind set, since I can NOT shoot 2 guns effectively at one time nor two targets at one time, I guess I look at it that I must "stop" the highest threat target first and increase my shooting cadence as needed, if the threat stops, I can reload, call 911. If you want to kill me for profit, "pleasure", dating your WIFE, or you are just crazy/or making a "act of terror", the only thing that changes in my mind is ( I wish I had brought 2 Thompsons with a few drums!!!! What do you think? Be Safe,

 

[BAM-BAM]

Vipermd

I'm not saying that I would respond to 2-3 muggers, or a flash mob; by only shooting one with the assumption the rest will run........ I'm suggesting that how a confrontation may play out will be influenced by the attackers motivation.

So if you are "preparing" for a mugging/burglar one or two J-frame .38s may be enough..... most of the time.....LOL

If you think and are "preparing" for ISIL/ISIS coming to your home town.....then your Thompson might be a "good start!!!"

 

[Voyager28]

For the sake of discussion and controversy I will throw out the following:

Back in the day (Late 60's - early 70's) when I was a very young LE, I was required to attend a 5 day defensive shooting course at the academy. On day 4 we had an instructor from the FBI Academy in Quantico come in for a one day special session. The subject? Multiple Assailants.

Back then we had a lot of race related riots and assaults and is was this type of situation he mostly dealt with. Out of this one day course there are two things in particular that stuck with me:

1. When confronted with multiple assailants, there is always a leader. If you can determine which one it is, take him out and the "Pack mentality" will cause the rest to either flee or, at least hesitate, giving you time to seek a safer position. Most of the time the "leader" will be the one closest to you and the most aggressive.

2. "Center Mass" may or may not be the best target area, especially in the winter time. The hip and groin area has lots of support bones and major blood vessels. A hip bone being hit with almost any caliber will cause debilitating pain and, if broken by the round, will render the assailant unable to walk and he WILL go down. probably not dead, but he will go down. This goes for pelvis bone, hip bone femur or knee. Also, in the winter time, the hip and groin area will most likely have fewer layers of clothing to contend with.

Fortunately, I have never had to try any of this on a human assailant but I never forgot it.

Bob

 

[BAM-BAM]

1. When confronted with multiple assailants, there is always a leader. If you can determine which one it is, take him out and the "Pack mentality" will cause the rest to either flee or, at least hesitate, giving you time to seek a safer position. Most of the time the "leader" will be the one closest to you and the most aggressive.

2. "Center Mass" may or may not be the best target area, especially in the winter time. The hip and groin area has lots of support bones and major blood vessels. A hip bone being hit with almost any caliber will cause debilitating pain and, if broken by the round, will render the assailant unable to walk and he WILL go down. probably not dead, but he will go down. This goes for pelvis bone, hip bone femur or knee. Also, in the winter time, the hip and groin area will most likely have fewer layers of clothing to contend with.


Bob

I've heard similar points made......

Point 2. was related to defeating body armor as the hip area is a lot bigger than trying to hit a bobbing/weaving head.

Point 1. Reminded me of the Tom Sellick movie "Open Range"... don't talk about it shoot the threat.......LOL

 

[vipermd]

Vipermd
I'm not saying that I would respond to 2-3 muggers, or a flash mob; by only shooting one with the assumption the rest will run........ I'm suggesting that how a confrontation may play out will be influenced by the attackers motivation.
So if you are "preparing" for a mugging/burglar one or two J-frame .38s may be enough..... most of the time.....LOL
If you think and are "preparing" for ISIL/ISIS coming to your home town.....then your Thompson might be a "good start!!!"

Totally agree with what you and Voyager28 were saying, just wanted people to focus on the front sight as opposed to being overwhelmed and moving to a spray & pray outlook , when only hits counts. Be Safe,

 

[mc5aw]

In Jim Cirillo's books and DVDs, he offered some interesting insights about # of hits and caliber effectiveness on any given perp.

 

[ridgewalker]

Texas Armed. Where do you carry your 2 revolvers on you person? Being a revolver fan myself, I'm thinking maybe we can squeeze in a third. Like a 340PD on your ankle...

I don't know the crime situation where you live but it seems like you are already covered for 99.99999% of trouble.

I guess it's like they say, "you are not paranoid if they are really after you."

 

[BAM-BAM]

For those of us who don't have the Book....... can you enlighten us?

 

[Rastoff]

1. When confronted with multiple assailants, there is always a leader. If you can determine which one it is, take him out and the "Pack mentality" will cause the rest to either flee or, at least hesitate, giving you time to seek a safer position. Most of the time the "leader" will be the one closest to you and the most aggressive.

Quality negotiation skills are a must...

fifth element-negotiation - YouTube

 

[TexasArmed]

Texas Armed. Where do you carry your 2 revolvers on you person? Being a revolver fan myself, I'm thinking maybe we can squeeze in a third. Like a 340PD on your ankle...

I don't know the crime situation where you live but it seems like you are already covered for 99.99999% of trouble.

I guess it's like they say, "you are not paranoid if they are really after you."

Ridgewalker I carry my Charter 44 Special in a paddle holster, and my Smith & Wesson 38 Special in a pocket holster. I am
afraid a third revolver is out of the question since I wear mostly cargo type shorts almost year round. I can see the value of
an ankle holster inside a vehicle perhaps but would not be
practical for me the way I dress. I avoid heavy coats as well.

And no I have never been paranoid, after all I am carrying two guns. As for fam mobbers
they would probably run after the first shots, but now a determined jiahdistst might not.
A Thompson machine gun is not in my future if that were needed I am probably toast anyways.
Just thinking about the possible pluses of a higher capacity semi automatic.

 

[WR Moore]

BAM-BAM: Mugger- 2 to chest, 1 to head,

The head shot is much easier to deliver with a keyboard or on a flat range than in the real world. Much more importantly, the head is a very heavily protected target for most pistol ammunition. Unless it's the only target available, it's a really, really poor choice. I'm personally aware of 2 cases (1 at a range of less than 6 feet) where the bullet skidded around the skull under the scalp.

A much better target is the base of the throat.

 

[Fastbolt]

I tend to worry more about my mindset, skillset development & maintenance and how to properly maintain my equipment (guns & holsters), than I do specific scenarios of "multiple attackers" and whether or not I'm carrying a hi-pistol (or more than one handgun).

Even back in the days of carrying issued 6-shot service revolvers this topic came up, and the "answer" back then typically involved more emphasis on tactics and skills. The introduction of a wider selection of hi-cap pistols (the M59 & Browning HP's were around in the old days, you know ), of better quality & reliability ... and increasingly better designed ammo in more recent years ... doesn't mean emphasis on the "shooter" influence can be relaxed.

While I can certainly see the merit of issuing hi-cap pistols to folks who make their living intentionally going out to look for criminal activities occurring, and being dispatched to suspected criminal activities throughout their shift, I don't lean that way quite so much for my retirement CCW choices.

For me, a "hi-cap" pistol usually means it has a 9, 10, or 12-rd magazine. (I only own a single pistol that uses 12-rd mags, and the rest use 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10-rd mags.)

I typically carry either a 5-shot snub revolver or maybe my LCP (6-rd mags), unless I'm planning to go somewhere that's more high risk than where I engage in my normal activities.

If someone wants to find out how well they can actually use their chosen handgun(s) outside of a leisure/sporting/target range environment? Perhaps it might be helpful for them to consider saving up for a defensive handgun class (or increasingly advanced classes), and/or participate in a local IDPA event. Might be an eye-opener.

 

[Ranger514]

Like Fastbolt, I'm a little Old School when it comes to maintaining situational awareness, firearms maintenance, shooting skills, and defensive tactics. Maybe it's because, like him, I'm a retired LE Firearms Instructor and Armorer. I started out carrying revolvers, and I still have a great love for my S&W wheel guns; however, over the years, I've become a big believer in the higher capacity of semi-autos. Nowadays, my personal carry choice is 9mm. I believe with the proper HP ammo, it's an effective caliber for stopping a human threat, knowing full well that multiple rounds may be required with any caliber of handgun.

When I cc, I'm satisfied to have a minimum of eight rounds available in a P290RS, or 16 rounds in a G19, along with a readily available spare magazine for which ever firearm I'm carrying. I'd recommend daily dry fire practice to become familiar with bringing your chosen handgun to bear in an emergency. Everyone should know how to rapidly and safely draw wearing whatever clothing they might choose for the weather and activities of any given day.

If you want to learn to defend against multiple assailants, I'd suggest you take a course at an academy that specializes in defensive firearms instruction.

 

[Rastoff]

Well said Ranger514, but I'm not a big fan of high capacity guns. Let me clarify. If a person wants a 100 rounds magazine, I have no issue with that, they should be able to have one. However, high capacity should never be a substitute for skill at arms.

While I know most don't mean it this way, I've heard the phrase, "I'm not worried. I've got 30 rounds of X on me." Those 30 rounds are only valuable if you can put them on target.

I use this video in class a lot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaJVaYyHopA

This policeman fired 14 rounds (after he was safe behind the vehicle) and only hit the vehicle 6 times. It's obvious from the video that one of the very early rounds, if not the first, went though the back window. One of the rounds, we don't know which, went through the driver's seat headrest and killed the driver.

Is this an example of high capacity being valuable?

 

[Smoke]

Why did the cop walk up to the vehicle with a flashlight in his gun hand?

 

[Rastoff]

Why did the cop walk up to the vehicle with a flashlight in his gun hand?

There are a lot of mistakes in this video. Let's keep this on topic and discuss capacity. Do you have a comment on that?