Mike, Ed, and others
As to how many 6.5" targets were done, and why $300 is a good price, etc :
There never were any records kept about how many , of any revolver, the factory built.
All there is is the shipping records, and the invoices. The shipping records are
bound books that were pre-printed with serial numbers; as the guns were shipped, the
appropriate entry was completed with the shipping date and destination. The invoice
books are ordered by date - as the bills were sent out. So, the lettering procedure
involves locating the serial number in the shipping records, then going to the invoices
on that date for further information.
The factory followed two different approaches when it came to making the guns. They
would always come up with, or make, whatever was ordered. And, they tried to anticipate
what would be ordered, just like any business today. From all that I've read, and have
been told, the pre-WW2 mix was approximately 10% targets, and 90% service-sighted guns.
They were not making guns for collectors - it was just a business, and their biggest
customers were the military and police organizations. That is why the K-frames are
named M & P's . They paid a lot of attention to target shooters and competitive
shooters, but the bread & butter business was the military and police guns.
This 10% approximation number is just an approximation, and it comes from the pre-WW2
years - namely about 1900 to 1940 . Clearly, most of the K-frames are 1905's, from
serial number 62,000 to 1,000,000 . And this includes the later K-22's and the few
K-32's, both of which were target guns - excpet for a few Coast Guard K-22's .
The time-frame that is the most difficult to deal with is the very first K-frames -
the 1899's and the two 1902 models. There was no history of production, when these
guns were first produced. The 1899's ran for only 3 yesrs, and both 1902's for another
3 years. Only 62,000 guns total were produced over those 6 years.
It's not clear as to the production planning for targets vs service sights during those first
6 years. Its doubtful that they estimated 10%, for example, although there is no proof
of that. The guns were shipped very much out of date order. Its common to find adjacent
serial numbers shipped nearly a year apart. That would suggest that the targets were
made up in batches, of maybe 50 or 100 guns, and then sat on the shelves until orders
came in.
The 1899's and the 1902's were offered in three standard barrel lengths: 4", 5", and
6.5" . Six inch guns were considered special orders. This is an important point, because
if a gun was one of the standard barrel lengths, then the records frequently reflect
just that - a standard gun. They frequently do not specify the barrel length -because it
was standard.
( A similar issue occurs later with the K-22's. The Call bead sight was
considered standard, so the records do not state what type of front sight was on a
standard gun. Earlier Call sights were gold - later ones were silver, but at their time,
each one was standard. )
There is no way to know how many 6.5" targets were made in the 1902 line. Or in the 1899
line. One could devote the time and energy to go through the invoices - but if the records
only indicate it is a standard gun, then that is the end of the story ! This is one of
the reasons why it is so important to examine these guns very carefully , to ascertain
if the parts are original. Barrels can be replaced - and they might even be re-serial
numbered to the gun. The stamped serial numbers under the barrel have to be examined
carefully, to see if it looks like the original stamping.
The best indicator of 1899 & 1902 target production is the number of guns that change
hands. Of course, we have to be made aware of these transactions. Public auctions, and
postings on sites like this, provide a glimpse of that information. It is only a glimpse,
because not all guns trade. Some stay locked up forever, or just exchange ownership
privately.
There is one last point, and that is that its not only the production numbers that are
important, but also there is the issue of survivorship. Clearly, not all of the 1899's
and 1902's that were produced, have survived. We need to make an estimate of the fraction
of production that survives. As an example, and this is only an example, if we assume
that 10% of the 1899 & 1902 production were targets, and if we assume that 20% of those
survived, then we multiply those two numbers together, and get 2% ( 10% of 20% ). From
the 62,000 guns that were produced, we would expect there to be 1240 survivors.
1240. That is a lot of 1899 and 1902 targets . A lot more than I have ever observed,
in all the auctions and postings that I have seen. Personally, I don't think there are
more than 300 to 400 1899 & 1902 targets surviving today. But - the point is that
this kind of methodology provides a framework for thinking about how many survivors
there might actually be, given that we will never know the real numbers.
And so now - the hardest question of all - what are these surviving guns worth ? If
collectors are happy paying $200 for a shooter-grade 1905, with a production of something
like 800,000 guns, $300 for a 1902 target sounds like a steal, to me !
Later, Mike Priwer