So what is the real covid situation in America?

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Kiwi cop

Kiwi cop

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Karen and I are planning another U.S. trip, hopefully early in 2022, provided managed isolation on return is no longer required (we are both fully vaccinated with the Phizer vaccine). We may bring a small group with us, in which case we will start in Houston, go through Louisiana, up through Mississippi and into Tennessee. If we travel on our own it will be 10 days in Texas then fly to Tennessee for another 2 weeks. The issue we are having is the news on covid-19 in the U.S.

We keep seeing headlines that infections are on the rise again, the delta variant is overloading hospitals and there is a stubborn resistance among the population to vaccines. One story was about an ICU doctor who was constantly being begged by patients for the vaccine when it was too late, they were already dying. Today our news outlets are trumpeting that the CDC is now recommending masks for everyone, even the vaccinated, indoors.

Then there are the stories that the infections are milder with a lower fatality rate. Finally we see both indoor and outdoor events, especially concerts, opening up (I like to watch The Grand Ole Opry online. I have seen the Opry house go from empty to 25% capacity to now sold out each week).

I am enough of a realist to know that media, any media, is biased and will use that bias in their reporting. So what is the true story? How is covid effecting forum members who come from all over America? Is it as bad as it is being made out or is life getting back towards the "normal" side, whatever the new normal will mean?
 
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Kiwi, I know you are sincere in your question. Hopefully this thread won't go off the rails, but I fear it will.
My experience: I'm in the medical field. I am observing a significant uptick in Covid patients. Including a very few folks previously vaccinated. Infections seem to be milder and shorter duration.
That's my first hand experience where I am, with my extremely small sample size. Not a media report, not statistically valid, and not biased.
 
One can't believe anything he hears about this stuff, regardless of where it comes from or who said it. It is really maddening, but I guess what we have is better than a single-source, state-run media giving the "official" government view, though at times it seems we are perilously close to that already. :mad:

Where I live in Indiana, right now everything seems to be fairly low key. I was at a decent restaurant in Indianapolis yesterday. No one was wearing a mask - no one. Not one mask in the place. That was yesterday. Who knows what we will have in two weeks, or two months?

Right now, I would not willingly travel into any high population density areas, but I don't enjoy that type of environment anyway. In the less densely populated area around my home, the topic is almost a non-starter. That doesn't mean I don't try to use ordinary caution. It's one of those subjects where you could ask ten people what's really going on and expect ten different answers. :rolleyes:
 
Here in my part of Pennsylvania the positivity rate is still low. The State reported 988 new cases the other day, a pretty big jump from the 500 or less they were reporting since June.

So I don't know what to tell you. I think it's too soon to say. But I'm not in the medical field.
 
I'd wait a year or two before coming here and let this mess run it's course. I just learned today that my daughter and her boyfriend tested positive even though they've had both doses of the vaccine.My son got over it in ten days while his brother in law is still sick six months after his diagnosis. Another friend has a sister in law who was quite healthy at 60,but was intubated yesterday.Vaccine hesitancy is a big issue here and is dragging this wreck out. Be patient and wait
 
What has happened is that the Delta variant is rapidly spreading, particularly among the unvaccinated. Some hospitals are being overwhelmed again. It has turned out that vaccinated people as well, while far less likely than the unvaccinated, can contract the delta variant. Especially if among many unvaccinated people indoors. And they can also pass it on.

While vaccinated people who contract the delta variant are overwhelming asymptomatic or have common, unpleasant, flu-like symptoms, less than 1% wind up in the hospital in a serious condition.

The population remains confused about mask use. Masks have been politicized, as you know, which confuses things in itself, but our government, national and local, continues to change its mask usage recommendations. Currently, due to delta, we are being told to wear masks again indoors in areas with a high concentration of the unvaccinated. (Because these are the same areas with increasing delta infections.)

The government says it is changing its advice based on changing conditions, which seems reasonable to some of us, but many, especially those who do not want to wear masks or be vaccinated, believe the change in government advice is due to incompetence or bad intention.

In short, it's rather a mess.

Regardless of the reasons behind it, or one's views re vaccinations and mask use, I think all acknowledge that there is currently a trend of increase in delta covid cases. I would not bring your immuno compromised wife to the US until covid is better under control and no longer spreading.

For what it's worth, above is my understanding of what is happening in the US now with covid.
 
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I guess it all depends on the day of the week, and who you listen to. My area has a few cases, but sure not a crisis. The regular flu was worse, but it didn't have a use- like today. By this time next year the rule will be if you haven't received your required 20 shots, you can expect to die. I'll take the shots when the AMA has tested and approved the vac.
 
My context is as working public health response for four years and presently doing emergency coordination for an organization with staff in UK, Canada, US and a few other countries.

UK just peaked hopefully front the Delta/Indian variant. UK example was fast onset and rapid spread, even with a 50+% vaccination rate. Limited overwhelming of hospitals, but certainly stressed the system. The largest increase in cases were in the Age 30 years and younger population, which was the lowest priority for vaccination and lowest for bad disease outcomes.

The developing US situation is very similar to the UK. Younger people, stressing but not breaking health systems, etc. If the UK experience extrapolates for the US, the Delta variant will have burned its way through the population by October or November.

See? No overt politics. Hope you come visit.
 
It's starting to get bad here in FL, the hospitals are filling up even without the use of microwave towers. Nearly every report states the majority of those hospitalized are unvaccinated. Conditions, and numbers, are changing daily. Mask mandates are revving back up. Hard to say what conditions will be like a week from now.
 
Your planned trip sounds very good. You are talking about a big investment in time and money, I would suggest you wait until this covid business if cleared out. I can tell you my son and daughter in law, she is a doctor, both came down with covid a couple of weeks ago even though they had been vaccinated months ago. Both shots of Pfizer. Her case was more complicated, his not so bad, neither had to stay in hospital both are ok now, but had stay home for 10 days her first then him. The mask mandates come and go according to local and higher governments, no telling when travel restrictions planes hotels and restaurants included may occur.
I was happy to read you may be in Louisiana at some point, it will be interesting and I would like to meet you whenever you do make the trip!
I do have to recommend strongly you wait until this covid situation is completely clear, we were looking good a couple of weeks ago, now cases are rising if this keeps up restrictions will be back in full force.
Steve W
 
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Back to school is just around the corner, of course the mask mandate is trying to reappear! Oh, and the "vaccine" discrimination is just beginning!! Turn on the View and CNN for more health news.��
 
There's definitely a pandemic among the unvaccinated. For the vaccinated life is returning to some semblance of normalcy. The danger is that with a resurgence of infections it's possible we get yet another variant. If we get one that the vaccines are not (or much less) effective on then all hell will break loose. But that's not a factor at the moment.

The area that you will be traveling through is the less-vaccinated area of the country. The DFW (Texas) area is barely over 50%. Mississippi I believe has the lowest vaccination rate of any state.

I think if you're vaccinated your O.K. You may wish to, or be required to, wear a mask at times. There's a remote chance that the situation worsens while you're on your trip or before it starts. There's little appetite for anymore lockdowns here regardless.
 
MRB1 said:
I guess it all depends on the day of the week, and who you listen to. My area has a few cases, but sure not a crisis. The regular flu was worse, but it didn't have a use- like today. By this time next year the rule will be if you haven't received your required 20 shots, you can expect to die. I'll take the shots when the AMA has tested and approved the vac.
Click to expand...

You'll have a long wait for an AMA tested and approved vaccine. They don't do that. The FDA does. The AMA though did release the other day that 96% of their members are vaccinated.
 
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Kiwi, my best advice would be be to consult your most trusted, competent medical advisors. You could also check reliable internet sources such as the CDC, State Department or your governmental sources. I would recommend not listening to politicians, talking heads or internet blogs as I am sure they would would not be your first choice for any medical advice if confronted with a serious problem.

Frankly, things are not good here now with exponential increases in cases and transmission of the virus. It is very sad as we have the resources to stop this scourge dead in it's tracks in terms of supplies but not the willingness. Your country on the other hand seems to have the willingness but not the supply. Unfortunately it is way to early to predict what the situation will be in 2022.
 
It is whatever the sources you trust tell you that it is. Unfortunately, the human tendency towards confirmation bias, along with the fact that there are exactly zero balanced news sources these days, means that you get to pick your own experts to support what you want to believe.
 
It's all agenda driven politics, Kiwi.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...p-flop_might_be_its_final_undoing_787443.html

FTA:

The crazy, convoluted, mixed up messaging from the CDC – it's been this way from the beginning of the pandemic until now – has taken yet another turn. Now the CDC is recommending masks not just for the unvaccinated but for the vaccinated too. This is supposedly because of the discovery that the variant known as Delta is making an end-run around the vaccines, causing not only infections but infectious spread.

So we have an odd situation developing. The layperson's understanding of a vaccine is that it protects a person against infection, like measles or smallpox. In other words, you won't get Covid, exactly as President Biden accidentally and apparently inaccurately said in a press conference last week. That is apparently untrue in this case. That realization seemed to dawn on people only a few weeks ago, as reports from Israel revealed that half the new infections listed were with people who had been fully vaccinated...
 
You'll have to be flexible and assess the situation much closer to your actual travel date.

Starting with legal restrictions in place. I just got back from Europe last week. At this time the only difference to normal were masks from the moment you set foot in the airport for the entire flight until you left your destination airport, and in public indoors places.

But to get back on the flight to the US, I needed a negative Covid test, even as a double-vaccinated US citizen. And Europeans are still banned from tourist and even most business travel to the US.

And with the Delta variant, there were news stories every day I was there about possible changes.

So planning group travel to the US from another country for tourist purposes more than half a year out may be chancy business.

While internal lockdowns here will be politically highly problematic, foreign visitors who don't vote are easy marks for restrictions if the situation worsens and if politicians need to be seen to be "doing something". That's just the reality.
 
Everyone is going to have to decide all of this themselves. I am 67 and generally really good health, I work out daily and take reasonable care of myself. I have had two different lung diseases that are no longer present aside from a few remnants. My wife and I have both received the J&J drug (I hesitate to call them vaccines).

Early on in this I watched a German Doctor, his name escapes me who was concerned that never in history have we interrupted a virus with a vaccine. He said that the normal path is for a virus to be allowed to mutate and it becomes less powerful as it seeks new hosts.

Fast forward to where we are now. I would advise you to watch as many podcasts and videos of one Dr. Malone. He is NOT an anti vaxer, in fact he worked on many and is the inventor of the mRNA. He does not have access to the data but he says it isn't that difficult to figure out. Note, I don't pretend to know all of this. Bottom line, as I understand it, the virus "seems" to be attacking people who have had the Pfizer shots. He goes on to say this is why they are talking about a booster just for Pfizer only. What happens is the virus finds its way to those with the Pfizer and it mutates there. His view is that it is replicating in previously vaccinated people and they then become carriers. He claims there is an easy way to find out if they have the virus or are carriers - just test the blood and not just the nose.

Through all of this I have not been concerned. We took precautions and took it easy, mostly staying home. Now, if Malone is correct, we have actually created a bigger potential problem. Where this all ends, I have no idea but I simply do not trust the propaganda machines that are out there.

Also keep in mind, the "vaccines" were never designed to keep one from contracting the virus, just from getting as sick and requiring hospitalization.
 
With the opening of public schools soon, who knows?
The same dithering types of indecision evidenced here on the forum is probably experienced doubly so by parents who find themselves dependent on their own best judgement on what's best for their kids because the answers simply ain't there.
Maybe the peak will come and hopefully level out by 2022 after a few months of back to school.
 
Most of my family members have had covid including myself and none have gotten it a second time. Two that did not get it but have received the vaccine have come down with it in the last month. In saying that I am not worried but even I would not travel the US right now gambling/testing the system on whether or not I could get it again. But at the end of the day it is your choice, but if you are taking a poll I vote stay close to home.
 
One web site you can use to see the status in a given area is Covid Act Now

The link I posted is focussed on Texas but you can type in your state, county, or city in the search bar to move to a different area. The risk rating is based on the rate of new cases, the infection rate (average number of cases that are caused by each new case) and the percentage of tests that are positive.

Most states and many counties and larger cities also have web sites that show the number of cases being reported and change over time.

Mike
 
Your vaccinated, unless your plans include spending your time shoulder to shoulder with throngs of teens and 20 somethings at bars, restaurants and concerts, you'll be fine. Extra points for visiting more sparsely populated northern states in the summer...and the weather and scenery is far superior. I would be more concerned with rapidly escalating crime in certain area's, and avoid them like the plague.
 
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