strategies for dealing with the next shortage...

[Telecaster]

...Plenty of profits to be made by expanding production, but producers are reticent to make capital investments that may not be supported 3-5 years out once this imbalance corrects.

Except that everyone here and on other gun forums says these cycles happen over and over. How do the ammo companies not know this? There’s always room for innovation and competition. If Corporation A doesn’t fill a niche, someone else will.

 

[BAM-BAM]

If folks didn't learn from the panics of the 1994 AWB, Y2K, 9/11, the
Elections of 2008,2012, Sandyhook, Ferguson, 2016......... they are clearly too slow to become a Boy Scout at this point of their lives.

Wait there is no more Boy Scouts!!!!!!!

For me, slow and steady, has allowed me to win the race!

 

[max503]

"Don't be a snob."

Good advise. Walmart had 500 round boxes of Thunderbolts for $14.xx about a year ago. A number of those came home with me because I remember them going for $39.99 during the last drought, when you could find them.
Now, when I want to relax I hang a pop can from a string at 50 feet and blast away with my Bersa.

 

[Donn]

If you were around following the Sandy Hook tragedy, you should've gotten the memo. It took years to recover from that, and in the current climate, who knows if it'll ever come back this time around. We've had years, the last three in particular, (till Spring, 2020), when guns and ammo were reasonably priced and readily available. You had ample time to stock up, so don't blame the guys who emptied the shelves before you got to the store.

 

[vt_shooter]

The big unknown is there's no way to know how long the next shortage might be. Might be a year, might be 20 years because of changed laws. Maybe all you can do is wait until prices return to normal, then buy as much as you think your floor joists can withstand.

 

[wetdog1911]

Nothing changes for me. 4 calibers for everything I shoot keeps inventory management efficient.

Sent from my Moto G (5) Plus using Tapatalk

Same here, except for a few boxes of .38 special bought in 2019 when I finally bought a snubby (or 6), I have not bought any ammo for over 15 years. But, in the few years between Y2K and the sunset of the AWB, ammo prices cratered and I bought nothing but ammo in that time, at least 5,000 rnds of each of the 4 calibers I settled on.

AIM had 7.62 NATO for $0.15/rnd, shipped. 7.62x39 was ~$75.00/1k or less and so on. Was even able to snag 2 cases of the SK rebranded Wolf MT for $186/case, shipped. That's what, just under $0.04/round. I recently saw a guy selling bricks for $115.00/brick and getting it, ~$0.23/rnd... CRAZY!

Rob

 

[sigp220.45]

The trick is to have enough guns so that whatever they put on the shelves, you’ll have something to shoot it in.

Three times when I stopped by Cabelas the shelves were bare except for one caliber. Once it was .32 ACP - yoink! Once there were some boxes of .32/20 cowboy loads - gotcha! And another time there were .38/40s - come to Papa!

The last time I went there was a small stack of .38 Supers. Uh oh. Don’t have one of those. There was a sign posted behind the stack: These are .38 SUPERS. They won’t work in a revolver!

Early on I could find .357 Sig (check!) and .40 (still have plenty).

My range keeps ammo for members, 2 box limit. Last time I got two boxes of S&B .380 for under 20 per box.

Its out there - you just have to diversify. I’m also ready for a sudden influx of .30 Luger, .38 S&W, and .44 Russian!

 

[lrrifleman]

For me, attending matches is my practice time. When it comes to recreational/match rifle ammo, I can make what I need for about 3-4 years, with match bullets dictating when I switch from 223 to 30. When looking at pistol ammo, there is only one match that I shoot each year that mandates factory loaded ammo, so in that respect, I am good for 4-5 years. Without really doing it consciously, I've laid in about eight thousand gas checks, so my Magnums shouldn't collect too much dust.

If, in my travels, I happen across a can of pistol powder, I'll grab it, same for primers. About the only factory ammo I will pick up if I don't have to pay my good arm and better leg will be 357 Sig and 44 Special. I am not panicking, but I don't want to deplete my supplies. Also laying in a good supply of roll caps for improvised percussion caps!

 

[Ugly Hombre]

I shoot slower and less rounds just shoot a box of 50 used to do 100 rds every trip.
May be good as I concentrate on hits more seems like. I also shoot S/A revolvers more- Ruger new Vaquero in 45 ACP etc. Easy to run though a lot of Rds with a 1911.
Trying to get the components to set up to reload .44 special, I have everything but a press now will probly order one next week- have enough primers for about 10 boxes. I think hard times for ammo is going to be permanent sadly- hope I am wrong.

 

[40_CALIBER]

I have a 40 caliber (23) glock. I picked up a 9mm conversion barrel before the pandemic with the intent to shoot 9mm for practice. 9mm was $9/ box and 40 cal was $12.50.
I stocked up 4000 rounds of 9mm because it got as low as $8.50.
Now I can shoot 40 or 9 through my carry piece.

Sometimes it pays to be lucky (and cheap). Vs smart

 

[Culina]

The plan has always been "buy it cheap and stack it deep" right now I am trying to find some H4350 powder to work up a few test ladders for my 6.5 Creedmore, I have several other powders but H4350 is supposed to be the cats meow, anyways, on a regional gun/shooting forum, I offered up ammo, primers and Varget as trading fodder and no takers yet. Actually, one guy did offer up a pound for 1,000 large rifle primers. I thought that was a little steep, but I didn't say no.

 

[Racer X]

Even with today's prices, I can still shoot cheaply. One thing is that I got a 7.62x39 upper for my AR. Steel ammo today is the cost of brass 223 the beginning of the year. The cost of that upper and a case of steel is the same as a case of brass today. Many caught on and 7.62x39 uppers can't be found these days. So the idea of swapping barrels is a great idea. I plan on getting a 1911a2 in 10mm, and getting a .357 SIG barrel, as well as a Glock M40 with a .357 SIG barrel. Both pistols can then shoot .357, 40 or 10mm with just barrel and recoil spring swaps. Same magazines.

And the only thing in pistols to watch out for is extractors when using steel.

Long term when things settle down, is powder and primers. 9mm and .357 SIG can use the same bullets, as can .40/10mm.

 

[Culina]

I learn something new from each panic/shortage, its the new gun owners that are kind of clueless.

 

[otisrush]

In many instances people think reloading is a key strategy to get one through a drought. (BTW - I reload.) And it's clear that it's just as hard to start reloading during a drought as it is to buy ammo. So if someone wants to get into loading it needs to (basically) be when things can be bought.

My thinking has changed a bit in that I don't believe reloaders are inherently better able to survive a drought than non-reloaders. The key is to prepare and stock up when things are available. Two people who shoot the same amount annually are equally prepared (or unprepared) if one has 5,000 rounds of commercial ammo and the other has enough components to load 5,000 rounds.

The case can be made that reloading components take up less space than loaded ammo. That might be attractive to someone. And there's the beaten-dead-horse that reloaded ammo is cheaper. So a reloader can be prepared to the same level as a non-reloader with less cash outlay. But depending on the specifics there's not THAT much of a difference. How many gazilion threads were there before the drought of the flavor "Is 9mm worth reloading?" For me I look at my stash in terms of "years" (or even administrations ) rather than number of rounds.

I think the key, especially if cash flow needs to be managed, is to buy a little consistently. It's amazing what a little change (anywhere in our lives) does when done consistently.

 

[Grayfox]

My rule for many years now has been always keep an absolute minimum of 1000 rds for every common caliber you shoot. That's the minimum. More is always better.
For uncommon calibers such as .32 long or .25acp, 500 is plenty.

 

[Culina]

I am not sweating the situation yet, butit would have been nice to load up a test ladder with H4350 before I head to the range, if the ladders I bring don't work out then I might have to trade the 1K primers for a pound of powder and do another range trip. But this is a new rifle thus my excuse for not being "prepared"

 

[walnutred]

First, I don't think this time it is a cycle. Second, the only way reloading is much of a long term advantage is if you cast you own bullets and are willing to work within those limits. For example recently a friend who was cleaning out his late fathers garage gave me around 50 lbs of plumbing lead and a few boxes of 41 caliber cast pistol projectiles. I no longer have a 41 mag but I can easily convert them in to 45 ACP projectiles. Cast loads for my 30 caliber rifle have been around for at least a century now so I will not so run out of a practical supply of ammo for them for a while.

 

[40_CALIBER]

First, I don't think this time it is a cycle. e.

I hope you are wrong, but I feel the same

 

[coachray]

I mostly shoot .22LR and 9mm. About 3rs. ago I started stocking up on both calibers, so I still have enough to last me for about 3yrs. Hopefully by then ammo will be more available and at lower prices.

 

[Krogen]

Except that everyone here and on other gun forums says these cycles happen over and over. How do the ammo companies not know this? There’s always room for innovation and competition. If Corporation A doesn’t fill a niche, someone else will.

Cyclical demands are tough. A company wants its equipment running nearly continuously. Unused capacity - idle equipment - is a waste of resources. Employees without work get laid off, they're typically not kept on during slack times. That's why companies set up for average or lower demand. Ideally, they want people and equipment running at 100% all the time. Why not set up for a higher level and store inventory? Tied up capital, storage space/costs and some states have inventory taxes.

While a company in a cyclical market would love to serve peak demands, they can't afford to. Inefficiency in slack times costs too much.

Full disclosure: I am not an MBA or a business man. I'm a techno-geek watching business folks do their best to manage this kind of thing.