I have been able to view a few pages of the S&W shipping records over the years that Roy and Don use to determine ship date and destination. There are 100 guns on a page and on average 2 or 3 ship to an individual = 2% chance. I asked Roy, years ago, how likely was it that top-break revolvers shipped to individuals and he said maybe a 5% chance but likely less.
There were over 261,500 38 Safeties made. Taking information from the old SWCA database, the there is no barrel length that is either scarce or rare within the four standard lengths. The lowest production was for the 6" revolver, with 14% of the total production or 36,600 made. The 5" is next, with 15% or 39,200 made. 4" was 23% of production or 60,100, and the highest percentage by far goes to the 3.25" with 49% production or 128,000 made.
The 38 Safety revolver is one of the lowest valued models of S&W made?? Certainly not worth too much, often selling for $300 to $400 in nice condition. I sold a rather nice 5" this spring and got $312 for it. Adding another $100 cost to get the letter just does not make sense for me.