WELL THE STINKY STUFF JUST HIT THE AIR CIRCULATION DEVICE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

And no one is more surprised than Israelis. Israel estimates Iran has 3,000 ballistic missiles. At the current rate of 15% failures to intercept incoming missiles, that means Israelis could reasonably expect 450 missile strikes if Iran exhausts its estimated arsenal. Israel is the size of New Jersey with 6 million population. Iran is 2.5x the size of Texas with 88 million population.

As well, no one seems to have a good estimate of how many tens of thousands of Shahed drones Iran has and can get into the hands of local proxies - these can be shot down with anti-drone defenses and with practice, they can be downed with radar-controlled anti-aircraft guns. Still, the Ukrainians, best in the world at this, can get about 90% of drones in swarms.

Israel seems to have rolled the dice that Iran would make noise and back off as they have before. Doesn't seem to have worked out that way this time.

We have not discussed Iranian asymmetric warfare capacities, but they have a myriad of options.

I'm not enthusiastic about Israeli abilities to escape their pre-emptive strikes without pretty substantial, long-term retaliatory attacks and damage.
 
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biku324 said:
Israel seems to have rolled the dice that Iran would make noise and back off as they have before. Doesn't seem to have worked out that way this time.
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I think that's underestimating Netanyahu.

Since 10/7 Israel has been working to systematically isolate Iran and degrade their capabilities. As of last November Israel has essentially a blank check from the US, I think they've decided it's time for some long-term work in Iran instead of just mowing the grass every few years. If Israel can do lasting damage to Iran's economy by disrupting or destroying their oil industry, it further degrades their ability to fund proxies and the regime may even topple on its own. All Iran can do to retaliate is indiscriminate attacks on population centers, which will only serve to fuel Israeli civilian support for a long-term campaign against Iran.
 
Deke Thornton said:
I think that's underestimating Netanyahu.

Since 10/7 Israel has been working to systematically isolate Iran and degrade their capabilities. As of last November Israel has essentially a blank check from the US, I think they've decided it's time for some long-term work in Iran instead of just mowing the grass every few years. If Israel can do lasting damage to Iran's economy by disrupting or destroying their oil industry, it further degrades their ability to fund proxies and the regime may even topple on its own. All Iran can do to retaliate is indiscriminate attacks on population centers, which will only serve to fuel Israeli civilian support for a long-term campaign against Iran.
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Israel can't find many proxies in that neighborhood.

Iran can do a lot more than dump missiles on populations via their murderous friends in Hamas and Hizbollah, the Houthis, and those are only the most extreme. They can make the Strait of Hormuz impassable, which is a great tactic if they have no oil to ship because of damage to their oil facilities. They still distribute oil by pipeline and by rail.

The region not recently been closer to the Plain at Meggido.
 
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biku324 said:
They can make the Strait of Hormuz impassable, which is a great tactic if they have no oil to ship because of damage to their oil facilities. They still distribute oil by pipeline and by rail.
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If Iran thinks they have problems now, wait until they close the Straits of Hormuz. Israel will be the very least of their problems.
 
The consequences would be far, far wider than just for Iran. They could also coordinate with Houthis to close both the Strait and also the Red Sea (or make shopping too risky to be affordable). Even a few days would destabilize the world economy.

One reason I like renewable energy is that it leaves us with less and less a need to care about things unfixable in places far away.
 
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biku324 said:
The consequences would be far, far wider than just for Iran. They could also coordinate with Houthis to close both the Strait and also the Red Sea (or make shopping too risky to be affordable). Even a few days would destabilize the world economy.

One reason I like renewable energy is that it leaves us with less and less a need to care about things unfixable in places far away.
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Shopping at my local Albertson's is already too risky to be affordable.... :giggle:

Sorry, I couldn't help myself.
 
Deke Thornton said:
If Iran thinks they have problems now, wait until they close the Straits of Hormuz. Israel will be the very least of their problems.
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There are multiple reports of large numbers of USAF tanker aircraft heading to Europe. How much is intent and how much is "the art of the deal" we will learn in due course.
 
biku324 said:
Israel can't find many proxies in that neighborhood.

Iran can do a lot more than dump missiles on populations via their murderous friends in Hamas and Hizbollah, the Houthis, and those are only the most extreme. They can make the Strait of Hormuz impassable, which is a great tactic if they have no oil to ship because of damage to their oil facilities. They still distribute oil by pipeline and by rail.

The region not recently been closer to the Plain at Meggido.
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The six day war says that Israel don't need proxies.
They are keenly aware of their situation. It's the same situation they've had for as long as I could remember. They are no less ready for a fight today than they were when the whole of the region tried to gang up on them and got educated in just under a week.
 
This is day 4 and the conflagration is escalating.

The Six-day war was decades ago and in no way resembles a standoff missile and air duel with 1000 miles between adversaries. It's a different world.

Any mention of the Six-Day War should also include mention of 34 US sailors killed and 171 wounded by the IDF in inernational waters off Egypt.
 
Well one thing for sure, they do not want it now. They have woken the Giant. And Natanyahu is going to bring the end to Israel.. I have no doubt about it. Let us pray that Bibi does not go with a Nuclear bomb which many fear he will now use. This could be the start of the end for all of us.
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Why don't you save that drivel for Facebook? Do us all a favor.................. :rolleyes:
 
This is day 4 and the conflagration is escalating.

The Six-day war was decades ago and in no way resembles a standoff missile and air duel with 1000 miles between adversaries. It's a different world.

Any mention of the Six-Day War should also include mention of 34 US sailors killed and 171 wounded by the IDF in inernational waters off Egypt.
Click to expand...

Reeking irrelevancies in 2025. More Facebook drivel.............
 
biku324 said:
The consequences would be far, far wider than just for Iran. They could also coordinate with Houthis to close both the Strait and also the Red Sea (or make shopping too risky to be affordable). Even a few days would destabilize the world economy.
Click to expand...

Which is what makes it suicidal for Iran to do. You can murder civilians all day long and no one cares, but if you disrupt the global economy heads are gonna roll with a quickness. Countries around the world will fall all over each other to take a crack at Iran if they do that, and the Ayatollah strikes me as the "crazy but not stupid" type.

biku324 said:
One reason I like renewable energy is that it leaves us with less and less a need to care about things unfixable in places far away.
Click to expand...

Agreed! A nuclear Iran is bad news no matter what, though.

LVSteve said:
There are multiple reports of large numbers of USAF tanker aircraft heading to Europe. How much is intent and how much is "the art of the deal" we will learn in due course.
Click to expand...

It's both. The US may not do the "speak softly" part anymore, but we mastered the art of the "big stick" a long time ago.
 
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