Long before the M9, it was already decided the next US pistol MUST be 9mm.
It should not be overlooked that a very significant reason for S&W's development of the Model 39 and Colt's development of the Lightweight Commander was due to a desired change to 9mm. Those test requirements were issued in 1949, and the specifications required a pistol in 9mm, and it had to weigh no more than 25 ounces and be no more than 7 inches in length. S&W entered the Model 39, Colt entered its Commander, developed for the trials (it was introduced to the public in 1951 in .45 ACP, 38 Super and 9mm), and FN entered a variant of the High Power, Inglis, a variant of its licensed copy of the High Power. The project never went forward, perhaps because of a wind down of war time spending, and perhaps because of the huge numbers of 1911s still in service.
Of course, the 1911 passing the M9 trials did not really surprise anyone. An arguably tougher competition by the Marines recently resulted in a contract award to Colt for new 1911s. Despite the seeming inability of people to get past the frightening appearance of a pistol in Condition One, the 1911 is still, for an open carry pistol, a very capable combat pistol.
One wonders if the military should develop some new ammo to go along with .45 ACP ball and tracer, such as a round that will reliably penetrate body armor, chest mounted magazine pouches and the like.
In addition, don't forget that the current crop of really modern .45s were developed for a pistol trial announced a few years ago that did not go anywhere. The plan was to replace all M9s with a .45 ACP and S&W had its M&P in .45, SIG had its 220 Combat, FN developed its FNX in .45, Beretta developed its PX4 in .45, Glock had a special G21 with a real Picatinny rail, and ambidextrous mag catch button, HK came up with its HK .45 and HK .45 Compact, the latter of which is in use by the SEALS now it performed so well. All of the pistols had the then-new requirement of a "flat dark earth" finish that we are all now so familiar with, etc.
This start-stop routine has been going on for years. Thankfully, consumers get the benefit as the companies put the excellent designs on the market when the government pulls the rug out from under the vendors.
Again, as I said before, this project, if it even really gets geared up, has a number of hurdles and in Pentagon/Congress fashion will take the better part of a decade, there will be hints and allegations of unfair treatment of the losers, conspiracy theories, endless protests, and follow-up litigation, just like before.
Don't hold your breath.
Doesn't it seem strange that American LE, which does not generally need penetration, is coming back to the 9mm in very significant numbers now that ammo technology has caught up, and the military is back to wanting a weapon with "more lethality," whatever that is? We are used to stopping power as we don't necessarily want a death, just a stop. The military uses terms such as lethality that mean, to us not versed in "military-speak" that a death occurs sometime after the shot is made. I am sure they also want an instant stop, or as close to it as possible, so I for one do not understand the terminology. That is trivial, but it has occurred to me that the folks running the show on these issues are not really up-to-speed on the issues involved.
This is not meant towards OKFC05, a regular poster here, and a knowledgeable one, at that. However, I would almost bet that even OKFC05 would agree that there are some in the decision making chain that simply do not understand all of the issues.
They really need to develop the ammo first. Then submit an RFP for a gun that will work with the desired ammo. And they might need some experts outside the Pentagon to help them with current issues in pistols/ammo as the military seems always to be running "behind the times" as a result of the long selection process, which seems never to end, during which time new and perhaps better products become available. That is not the fault of any one person, but an indictment of the slow and virtually non-reactive system of procurement. The Pentagon is not known for being able to "spin on a dime," so to speak.
9mm ball is not a good choice for stopping power, and we don't need a big set of trials to prove that again. What we need is more effective stopping power together with ability to penetrate, and I have to admit that I am not aware of any BALL ammo that is very good at BOTH.