Just posted in
The Guardian:
21:37
Ukraine could 'absolutely' win the war against Russia, Pentagon says
The Pentagon has said Ukraine could "absolutely" win the war against Russia, even as US officials speak of the risk of a protracted conflict.
"Of course they can win this," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told a news briefing.
"The proof is literally in the outcomes that you're seeing everyday ... absolutely they can win."
Of course, they can win this. And if you look at what they've been able to do just thus far, Mr. Putin has achieved exactly zero of his strategic objectives inside Ukraine. He didn't take Kyiv. He didn't topple the government. He didn't remove Ukraine as a nation state. And he's really only taken control of a small number of population centres.
And even they weren't the ones that he was really going after. So, you know, Mariupol is still not taken. He's moved his forces out of Kyiv. He's moved his forces out of Cherniniv. They haven't taken Kharkiv. They haven't taken Mykolayiv in the south.
So, I think the proof is literally in the outcomes that you're seeing every day.
The Ukrainians are bravely fighting for their country. And they have denied Mr. Putin so many of his strategic objectives. So absolutely, they can win."
This sounds a little too confident to me. If they can be enabled to cripple the Russian artillery and air power, this will go a long way to winning. But at the moment, Russia seems to be focussng on sheling cities into dust.
The Russian army has generally been a disaster and beaten back repeatedly. Unfortunately, some of their successful attacks have included the appalling mistreatment of civilains that we have been reading about. In other cases, people have just told them to ******* off. A mixture, it seems, of raw recruits and some psychopaths.
As Kira Rudyk said in the interview posted above, they are at a stalemate and it is unknown how long this can be maintained
Let us hope that increasing sanctions have the desired effect soon, but I'm not hopeful that this will be over without a lot of additional bloodshed and misery.