Thinking about PRIMER shortage

Since most reports are that ammo retailers have full shelves of most common calibers for 5 months , why do we still have primer shortage ? I use mostly LPP. Factory rounds for .44 and .41 are
$2.00 per round , I cannot imagine that shooters are buying a lot of them. I was told that we had primer shortage because there was massive demand for factory ammo and they were getting all the primers. Now there seems to be surplus for factory ammo but still no primers.

My guess is that all those people who were running out of primers are now stocking up. It might be a while until it all sorts itself out, barring another panic.

Small pistol primers are starting to show up with prices down a bit...

Last time I bought Large pistol primers was from Midway last November: you need to get signed up for notices from the bigger (& most reliable, hopefully?) online vendors and, then, act quickly when actual availability is confirmed.

Good luck!

It's a conspiracy by the far left anti-gunners. They know that all gang bangers and mass murders use primers so they have pressured/bullied all the component dealers, manufacturers to slow production, making only enough for Police and Military. The primers we see on store shelves are snuck out by disgruntle employees and sold "black market" (not African Americans).The snowflake's main thinking is "for the children", with no primers there will be no school shootings...

sarcasm of course...

I can almost guarantee there is no SURPLUS of factory ammo. Yes, the shelves may be fuller than a couple of years ago but I doubt stores are refusing shipments and warehouses are backing up. As a history lesson to you, in early 2020 people started panicking and buying guns. By early 2021, almost all gun stores had bare shelves and people were jumping on Gen3 Glock 17's as if it was a 12 pack of toilet paper.

In early 2020, I was still buying primers for $40/box when they were available. In 2019, I would buy them when on sale for $22/box and only stomach the $30/box if I needed to restock. In mid 2021, you could still buy primers for $49/box but were usually limited to 1 box per customer/day and they usually sold out by the next day.

By late 2021, guns were back in better supply in most of America but ammo became scarce because all those new guns needed to be fed. Ammo makers went into full production and ate up all the primers and powders and those components dried up.

Now that ammo is getting into better supply, the stock of components will start to return. Not to pre-2019 levels but after a few months of sitting on the shelves at $90-$100 box, the prices will come down to probably $60/box and powder will go from $40-$100 pound down to $25-$30 pound in 8 pound jugs.

I remember in 2010 when I could go and buy a pound of any powder produced, try it out and if I liked it, go back and buy an 8 pound jug and be set for a year or two.

Depending on the national political atmosphere and pending any more media hyped "mass shootings" and "gun violence" stories, primers and powder will be much more available although at a considerably higher price, but no where near as expensive as loaded ammo. It just makes sense, if loaded ammo is anywhere close to the cost of components, the components will simply gather dust on the shelves until the prices become reasonable.

I can't emphasize enough to stock up when you can, especially when prices are reasonable. I've only been reloading for 15 years but have seen at least 3 prior cycles of panic buying, shortages and droughts of ammo and components and always keep at least a year of reloading supplies on hand and when prices are "normal", buy as soon as I am anywhere close to finishing up a box of primers or jug of powder.

Look at how much small arms this administration is sending to Ukraine. I would bet that we're sending millions of rounds of ammo too.

stopped at a reloading supply co. last week. the primers were $14 a hundred. they had several boxes of shotgun primers. need a case trimmer, other reloading to start equip., nothing in stock. so the search/ research goes on.

The term "thinking about" means you are trying to make some sense and/or reason about it. Good luck with that. If you are looking for conspiracy theories, you've hit the mother lode. I've been thru three maybe four of these, plus the shortage of 22s. I think this is the longest one and yes things are getting better but its still not over. Hopefully I'll make it to a gun show in a few months, anxious to see how things are there.

I’ve resigned myself to paying $80/K just so I can keep shooting. I got 3K LPP in a deal with a bunch of projectiles and powder a few months ago and at the Lakeland show, I picked up a case of SPP for $400. If I had an extra $400, I would have picked up a case of LPP too. It is what it is if you want to keep shooting.

The going retail for pistol primers seems to be $89.99 for a thousand. In a seizure of madness, I just drove a 150-mile round trip for a brick of large pistol. The store would let you order online, but the catch was you had to pick them up in the store. They would not ship. They had them, I wanted them. No one else closer. Oy, weh!

jag22, I wish you luck. The gun shows around here are full of gougers.

There is no shortage. You can buy all you want but they are high priced . The price will come down just like 9mm ammo. Question is how long

Went to Scheels in Rapid City today. They had quite a bit of LPP, SPP, LRP and SRP. They were stocking more from cases that they just got in. They wanted $84.99 per thousand for the standard and the magnum primers were $89.99 per thousand. They’ve come down $5.00 per thousand in the last three months. I picked up three thousand LPP and SPP for now. Might want to check them if you have one in your area and need some soon.

Luke Duke said:

Look at how much small arms this administration is sending to Ukraine. I would bet that we're sending millions of rounds of ammo too.

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You would be right about that, millions of rds. already sent over and millions more scheduled to be sent over.

As to primers, government contracts are getting first dibs, then local and state law enforcement. Couple that with the higher demand for raw materials and the short supply of them to make primer components, and the reloaders are just getting the leftovers at higher prices. I never expect primers to ever be down to pre-pandemic prices ever again.

My LGS up until last month hasn't had a primer of any size or brand for over two years and they used to have shelves full of them. Now they have all the major brands except Remington but only two or three bricks of each and not all sizes at all times and prices run for 90 to 120 dollars with Federal GMM primers being the most expensive. I have seen some of the Turkish ZSR SP primers for $75 per K but it's a 80-mile round trip to get them.

I think some of the bigger box store retailers that carry primers that have deeper pockets than the little mom-and-pop shops get first dibs on primers a well.

My guess is the supply chain is slowly filling back up. As they become available some will buy at the high prices. Inventory slowly builds. Prices come down a bit more, but that increases the demand. So you go through inventory build, sell down, build it back, sell it down as prices slowly fall with each cycle as what economists call "price discovery" takes place.

Sure is taking a while.

The ammunition manufacturers make a whole lot more profit selling loaded ammo than they do selling components. They need their own primers to make ammunition.

Primers require a hazmat fee to ship and loaded ammo does not.

For those who are waiting for prices to come back to what they were a few years ago - I'd say stop waiting, bite the bullet and get some now while you can. I'd bet the Anti's are already burning the midnight oil on restricting shipment, requiring permits, increasing hazmat fees, etc. and waiting might make the current prices actually look cheap in the near future.

I have recently seen primers selling for around $65 - $70 per thousand or 6 to 7 cents each. That would add 3 to 4 cents per loaded round or $1.50 - $2.00 a box of 50 rounds, (over past cost about 4 years ago, all other components being equal). While not what was back in the day, it is still worth every penny to me to be able to load what I want when I want.

While some will refuse to pay the higher prices they will be the same ones who will cry and complain when they are once again unavailable. Hey - NOTHING costs what it did 3 years ago!!! While I have no crystal ball, I'd place money that shipping loaded ammunition, components and parts will only get more restrictive and more expensive - just my opinion. To me, getting now what you need for the foreseeable future is wise and prudent. I mean how many times to we need to watch the same movie before "getting it"? Could I be wrong here? Absolutely - however I doubt it and even if I am wrong, it's a "fail safe" scenario. We have all spend gobs of money on miscellaneous and frivolous things that "evaporate " in short order. Primer's don't!

glenwolde said:

My guess is the supply chain is slowly filling back up. As they become available some will buy at the high prices. Inventory slowly builds. Prices come down a bit more, but that increases the demand. So you go through inventory build, sell down, build it back, sell it down as prices slowly fall with each cycle as what economists call "price discovery" takes place.

Sure is taking a while.

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I've seen quite a few components shortages, primers, powder, bullets, reloading and casting equipment, commercial and surplus ammo or even firearms of all types have been in short supply more than a few times if you have been in the game long enough. People like to think the economy is doing well, but if you run or work at a business or company that relies on raw material or imported items to function, for many it's not going that well at all.

Some of our raw material prices have increased by 600% and we can't eat that and the customers have to have it as well, so they just pass it on wherever possible. Some products we can't even get anymore or find a substitute for so that just jobs, time and profit lost. Throw in if things blow up across the pond, primers, commercial ammo and everything that goes into making it gets redirected and goes there first.

I made sure after my first experience twenty years ago to never have to worry about that problem, regardless of which way the economy or political winds were blowing. Being a preparedness minded person made that easy.

Component prices are cyclical. The prices will come down eventually when the war in UKR ends.

CCI, Federal, Remington, Speer and Ammo Inc. all make ammo for UKR military. Millions of rounds of 5.45x39 have been shipped to UKR. That's a lot of ammo.

Luke Duke said:

Look at how much small arms this administration is sending to Ukraine. I would bet that we're sending millions of rounds of ammo too.

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Not so much small arms, they have stockpiles of AK-74's, one for everyone who wants to fight, but ammo is a different story.

The industry has changed how it deals with demand.
Used to be that having something like a 45-70 was a blessing. With a century of various data, you always had a way to keep it running while the mainstream cartridges were run dry.
The opposite has been true this time.
Seems primer and powder production is going to ammo manufacture rather than reloading.