If you look at just the muzzle energy numbers the 9mm is a clear winner. The 9mm typically generates about 300 ft.lbs. of muzzle energy from a 4 inch barrel, the 38 spl. comes in at about 200 ft.lbs. Go to +P and there is even more divergence, most commercial loadings of the 9mm +P ranges between 425 and 450 ft.lbs., in comparison the 38 +P only generates about 250 ft.lbs.
BTW, at one point Buffalo Bore offered a load that was labeled as a 38 +P but with a muzzle energy listed at something like 480 ft.lbs. IMO that load would be more properly described as a 38/44. That is a load the approaches Magnum energy levels and I would only use that particular load in a 357 Magnum, IMO it's too hot for a gun rated for 38 +P.
So, if you go purely by the numbers, the 9mm parabellum is a clear winner. However, as noted, you can't get the bullet mass that's available in the 38 spl.. Those numbers are achieved by a combination of higher operating pressure and lighter bullets.
Personally, I think that energy is over emphacized, I believe that choosing a caliber that you are very competant with is far more important. Maybe it's a factor of age and experience, but I've rarely seen someone shooting a 38 spl. that wasn't pretty good with it. I've also seen volumes of 9mm shooters who can't hit a barn door at 30 feet. My advice would be to carry whatever you shoot best with, if that happens to be the 38 spl. just remember that it has about a 100 year history of proving itself to be effective.