Many of us buy cases of ammo when it is cheap, and then reduce our round counts when shooting during ammo shortages. In the last 20 years, I believe we have experienced about five shortages. Us older folks are probably wiser now.
Being used to having cases on hand, I will buy when ammo prices are falling but not yet bottomed out. Almost never will prices return to the best of the old days, and no one can accurately predict how low they will go this time.
As I look at my supply I gauge quantity on hand for an extended period of drought. I also want enough that I can feel comfortable going to a multi-day class that will use 500 rounds.
So, as ammo prices fall, I start restocking. I pay prices higher than I would like, but I want enough on hand. I look at price on “dollar cost average”, meaning, what’s the average cost per round of all the 9mm in my inventory? Then I set “buy points” as prices drop, of course not knowing how low they will eventually go. Because most of my ammo was bought at the very low prices, to have two or three cases of more expensive stuff does not raise my per round expense too much.
I just bought a case of Federal on b/o that will arrive @ 0.43/rnd, delivered. My next buy point will be $0.35/rnd. When 9mm goes below $0.30/rnd delivered, I will restock.
My personal opinion is that we will not see 9mm below $0.25/rnd for a very long time, if ever. Waiting for something that is not likely to happen depletes my inventory, reduces my shooting, and is no fun. I accept that my per round cost is now higher, but because of dollar cost averaging it is not near current high prices.
