Average of 3 rounds...

SchemaEnigma

SchemaEnigma

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This "3 rounds" thing in a civilian self-defense incident involving a carry gun … is it real, or is it just so often repeated on boards such as this that it becomes something that "everybody knows" with no actual source ever cited?

I'd like to know what, exactly, this "average of 3 rounds" is counting, where the data comes from, and what, exactly, is the source compiling the data?

I don't mean vague words or a vague reference like "FBI" or some writer reporting the data without showing the source.

I mean exactly.

Can anyone cite the actual source? I've been unable to find it.

Just curious (and a bit of a data geek).
 
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I was told the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics showed over a long time period that the range of average number of shots fired in a self-defense incident (including law enforcement involved shootings) is 3.5 to 5.5.

With all the discussion about gunfire in these threads, it is also important to note that (about) 90% of self-defense incidents involving a firearm have no shots fired, so deterrence is statistically much more important than caliber, bullet type, magazine capacity or other stuff we like to debate. :)
 
I'm a bit rushed for time right now, but if you want to look up Claude Werner's study of NRA "Armed Citizen" reports, it covers over 400 defensive gun uses and he came up with 2.something rounds fired per incident.

As for "FBI," a lot of the data comes from their officer-involved shootings data.

If I can find the info when I get back, I'll post a link.
 
SchemaEnigma said:
This "3 rounds" thing in a civilian self-defense incident involving a carry gun … is it real, or is it just so often repeated on boards such as this that it becomes something that "everybody knows" with no actual source ever cited?

I'd like to know what, exactly, this "average of 3 rounds" is counting, where the data comes from, and what, exactly, is the source compiling the data?

I don't mean vague words or a vague reference like "FBI" or some writer reporting the data without showing the source.

I mean exactly.

Can anyone cite the actual source? I've been unable to find it.

Just curious (and a bit of a data geek).
Click to expand...
These are anecdotal and may not be as precise as you're looking for but on pages 96 and 97 of Tom Givens book "Fighting Smarter" he looks at two sets of data. He doesn't say the source of his data.

#1 - Between 1989 and 1994 FBI agents were involved 20 to 30 shootings per year. In approximately 1/2 of those, the BG didn't realize the FBI agent was a LEO and was attempting to rob them. 92% of the encounters were between 6 and 12 feet and the average number of rounds fired was 3.2.

#2 - In 2007, undercover DEA agents had 44 defensive shootings. The average distance was 14.6 feet and the average number of shots were 5.

Givens had 65 civilian students over the years involved in self defense encounters. He calls it 62 wins/3 forfeits. The 3 forfeits were unarmed when they were killed. He has those stats on page 99 "Fighting Smarter."

From that group 93.1% were between 3 and 7 yards. On average, they shot between 3 and 4 rounds, but... a couple shot as many as 12 rounds with one being out to 22 yards.

Givens posts frequently on pistol-forum.com. You could probably ask him where he got the specific FBI and DEA data.
 
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87% of all quoted statistics are made up on the spot. Statistics quoted on the internet are only 73% fabricated on the spot, and statistics quoted on this site are actually 43% accurate, one of the highest known averages in the short history of the internet.

Still worth checking.
 
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ContinentalOp said:
I'm a bit rushed for time right now, but if you want to look up Claude Werner's study of NRA "Armed Citizen" reports, it covers over 400 defensive gun uses and he came up with 2.something rounds fired per incident.

As for "FBI," a lot of the data comes from their officer-involved shootings data.

If I can find the info when I get back, I'll post a link.
Click to expand...

I'm back.

Did a quick check, and found this article that posts Werner's study results.

Analysis of Five Years of Armed Encounters (With Data Tables) | Guns Save Lives

The average number of shots fired was 2.2 per incident.

I also remembered Greg Ellifritz's study. While his study was focused on "stopping power," he does list how many shots, on average, were required to incapacitate (not the same as total shots fired, but close enough). Pretty much for all calibers, it was 2-3 shots.

An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power | Buckeye Firearms Association

Of course, like any of these studies, they're all flawed in some way. It's really difficult to to get good, reliable data due to the huge variability of human reactions upon being shot (or shot at).

So, my suggestion would be to look at the data, look at your own risk profile, and make the choices you believe will serve you best. But at the same time, try to have contingencies in place in case your primary plan(s) don't work. Whether you carry a 5-shot snub or a 16-shot 9mm, plan to have Murphy tag along for the ride.

Just my opinion.
 
murphydog said:
I was told the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics showed over a long time period that the range of average number of shots fired in a self-defense incident (including law enforcement involved shootings) is 3.5 to 5.5.

With all the discussion about gunfire in these threads, it is also important to note that (about) 90% of self-defense incidents involving a firearm have no shots fired, so deterrence is statistically much more important than caliber, bullet type, magazine capacity or other stuff we like to debate. :)
Click to expand...

^^^^This. Thankfully I'm one of those in the 90% bracket. However, with all the debate on caliber, as much ammo as you can carry verses 5 rounds, etc..., I think some tend to forget that the best way to try and avoid a situation is thinking with the human brain. Granted, you can't always avoid a confrontation but if something doesn't feel right and the hair stands up on the back of your neck, better get moving. Always in condition yellow, always be aware of your surroundings...
 
O.P.,

I have heard the 3 round average before semi-autos became common for leo’s and citizens to use for self-defense. Since revolvers were either five or six rounds three shots sounds good as a average. With the higher round capacity of semi-autos more shots being fired would seem to be a reasonable assumption.
 
Remember that these are averages. Sometimes it was more and sometimes it was less. That means there were times where someone had to shoot more rounds or had to shoot longer distances. etc. If you play simply to the averages you're gonna get burned. The average amount of times I need to change a tire is really, really small. Yet I won't go to the store without a spare. YMMV and each person has to make the call for themselves, but using averages as your only guide is, in my opinion, poor planning.
 
I think it is inappropriate to use LEO statistics for civilian situations. The Law enforcement officer has a different mandate and a different mission. They go into harm's way and protect the public from probable dangers. Even in a state like mine, South Carolina, there are limits to the "castle doctrine" The civilian shooter is responsible for choosing a proper target and responsible for the rounds that miss and do damage in the background. Whipping out your wonder nine and firing a seventeen-round burst is likely to get expensive unless your target is all alone in front of a brick wall, and you will still have a wall to fix. A civilian needs to identify the target, identify the situation as life-threatening, and know they are not shooting the bouncer, or an undercover police officer, or a kid with an airsoft. A law enforcement officer is going into a dangerous place because he has to and he needs speed. A civilian should be avoiding dangerous places and think about what is happening before you draw or fire.
 
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Model520Fan said:
87% of all quoted statistics are made up on the spot. Statistics quoted on the internet are only 73% fabricated on the spot, and statistics quoted on this site are actually 43% accurate, one of the highest known averages in the short history of the internet.

Still worth checking.
Click to expand...
You got that from Abraham Lincoln's blog didn't you
 
I am no expert on anything. That said, I think it might be helpful if everyone makes sure they understand the meaning and implications of "statistical average" and "standard deviation".
 
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