Bug out to where?

[Hobie1]

This is a well written novel and has documentation to back up the author's assertions. It addresses the problems encountered in a post EMP attack on us here in the U.S.A. onesecondafter.com - Home

Bugging out will very problematic in the basic assumption that you jump in your car and drive away from the threat. Where are you going to get more fuel? Unknown. Don't expect to have un-fettered travel on the major roads as they will be likely to be bad at best. Imagine the worst snarls at rush hour and know that your movement won't go without being noticed.

Don't expect your country folks are going to share their assets with you. You might very well have to protect what you have against extremely desperate people.

Also, one thing that I've seen missing is provisions of what to do with your own human waste. Even chemical toilets have an finite lifespan.

Pets. You can't support them forever. Are you prepared to dispense with your extended family, even to the point of having to eat them? I know I'm not.

Communications. You have to take into account that the networks will probably collapse sooner or later. Bye bye internet. Radios? You have to have someone who have nothing to go home to man the broadcast equipment.

The lists go on and on.

I pray that none of us ever have to endure the extreme hardships of SHTF.

Hobie

 

[Cal44]

This is why I plan to bug-in. I can have what I need here with a little preparation.

If the house burns down, or riots move to the neighborhood then I may have to leave - otherwise I stay.

 

[feralmerril]

We have been lucky in this country. While a lot of our soldiers have seen survival situations by the populace in other country's most of us have only seen pieces of it on tv. Most of us have become complacent thinking it wont happen here as what country could have the logistics to think it could stand a chance of overpowering us. For some of us I think we look at it as sort of a entertainment of what if`s. I really dont think we will be attacked by another country on a scale like as the movie, "Red Dawn". I do believe there will be isolated terror attacks though.
What I see is what the bible says about the end times. All out war in the Mideast, and how that will drain this country. Then huge depression and other political breakdowns that will cause a epidemic of crime, looting etc. I would like to think that with my knowledge, guns, ATV`s etc that I and family would be in good shape in my part of the world. In real life it wont work that way only for a short time. Even if I had some gas rat holed in hidden places along the trail systems it would only keep you haunting the hills for a short time, not years. I always got a charge out of people who "think" they can easily live off the land. Maybe in some places but not here. Now to start with, there are different thoughts among the christian s about "Pre trib" or "Post trib" etc. Some believe when doomsday comes the christians will be taken up etc. I dont worry about any of it although I dont mind speculating on it for entertainment purpose`s. I do believe it WILL happen at some point in history. Some of my slant is due to being 73 years old, not 20. I am reminded of a cartoon I seen over 50 years ago. It showed the last solider or maybe person left on earth standing in nothing but ashs for far as he could see on the globe and he is happily declaring, "I WON!"

 

[Rule3]

The "bug outs" just like to buy stuff to put in a bag. Makes them feel self sufficient. They live in a fantasy world or watch to many Movies and TV.

They have no outdoor skills, think they will learn those when there is nothing left of the world. They will be come great shots with with their 22lr and live off the diseased squirrels, rabbits and rats.

In your example, don't forget a EMP will knock out vehicles.

They think it will be like the Walking Dead. If it is that bad what is there to survive for??

Nuclear or Biologic destruction???, there will be nothing out there any way.

Look what happened after major hurricane strikes on major cities?? Imagine the Country or World??

I recall reading Alias Babylon as a kid. We had a good thread on it here. Took place right here in FL, Watching Homestead and MacDill AFB going up.

 

[JeffShrugged]

EMP will take out cars and communication. In this situation, I will be among the first to die. Even though my first love is target archery and I could probably hit an animal with my bow, I have no idea how to clean it. We would shelter in place and hope for the best. We actually have two months worth of dog food on hand, and a grill + propane for cooking, but our water and people food situation is woefully lacking. I guess I'm betting it won't happen.

 

[venomballistics]

Bug out, or not to bug out. ?..
it's a trick question.
evacuation is dictated by the nature of the crisis.
Floods , massive wildfires, and other things that promise to kill you, yeah ... get out of its way.
EMP, collapsed infrastructure.... sit tight. We used to live in caves.
that takes energy you're only going to squander trying to run from something that's everywhere your going to be.

 

[Cal44]

My son is a EE in charge of power distribution for a utility.

His opinion is an emp event would be survived quite well by the electrical grid. Outages measured in hours at worst.

The electrical distribution system has to handle lightning strikes which are similar emp transients.

I'm an EE also -- although not a high power expert, but I think he is likely right.

Radio communications like the cell phone network will probably suffer more damage.

Not sure about cars having a problem. Maybe.

But if you have an old car with no computer controls -- just a mechanical distributor and points -- it will probably work fine.

 

[venomballistics]

Depends on magnitude of the transient.
all of the solid state is susceptible to various degrees.
Cars, running non points type ignitions might not fare so well.

 

[redlevel]

This is a well written novel

I don't consider any novel that uses "should of" and "could of" in place of "should have" and "could have" to be very well written. I have tried to read it a second time, but just can't get back into it. His imagery could use a little work, too.

That said, the message and some of the scenarios might be fairly realistic. Some might not be so realistic. I am not a scientist, and I don't know what the effects of an EMP attack would be. Like some other scientific topics, there seems to be some debate among those who are of a scientific bent as to what the effects would be.

I believe the author did a fairly good job of trying to predict human reactions in an event like this. There was one scene, if I remember correctly, where the leaders of the town were discussing going out to the various farms and seizing the livestock for general usage. There didn't seem to be any moral question as to whether this was the right thing to do. My first reaction was, "Hell no, they couldn't have my cows." My second, third, and fourth reactions were, "Hell no, they couldn't have my cows."

 

[Kilibreaux]

The worst issue faced in a collapse of social services will be the shut-off of water into and out of homes in the cities. One can have all the lanterns, generators, canned food, guns, and ammo in the world, but once the toilets stop evacuating human waste THAT CITY is DEAD...as are all those who remain in it!
Ancient Rome was able to support as many as a million residents due to a very efficient water transport system that functioned autonomously, but modern systems do not...they require electricity and pumping stations....water treatment centers, and once those shut down, there is NO CHOICE BUT to "bug out."
On the other hand, such a total collapse is unlikely...the government has ZERO interest and possible gain by the populace being completely disenfranchised. Regardless of all the nonsensical talk about FEMA establishing camps to house all the citizens, the FACTS ARE that people getting up and going to work every day is what EVERY government needs if it wishes to remain in power.
The notion of a total collapse of government (as in Alas Babylon) is a very "neat" fictional treatment that is no longer valid. NOBODY wants to destroy infrastructure because it renders whatever "conquest" completely worthless....yes, the one exception is "terrorists" who want to shut down infrastructure but the fact is they lack the resources to accomplish such a lofty goal.
Once "your" city is affected by a major social disruption, FEMA will move in, Federalized troops will move in and set up a cordon around the city. Food distribution will begin and all citizens inside the cordon will be expected to show up to register and receive aid...those "preppers" who choose to hunker down and wait it out will find themselves in hot water when their food supplies finally run out (or low) and they present themselves at a FEMA sponsored food distribution point...the government will want to know just WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN for the past year!

Granted a rogue government MIGHT set off a nuke...but factually a rogue INDIVIDUAL is MORE LIKELY to set off a nuke...but the threat of some global "nuclear" exchange is pretty much null. This means maybe ONE city somewhere evaporates, but that's about it. Governments and Capitalists have been, and ARE working hard to ensure that no ONE "terrorist" can neutralize anything beyond a small city...

The purpose of private firearms ownership is purely to deal with criminal marauders during a period of Martial Law. The "modern" military is amply prepared to deal with sporadic and disjointed civil disobedience. The military currently HAS an "area denial weapon fielded that drives people AWAY from a covered area...guns won't be of much use against that...not that any "big time" weapon cannot be defeated, just that future "rebellion" won't be as simple as taking up arms against the oppressor.

On top of all this...just as we can SEE in foreign countries, as long as some semblance of perceived social order can be maintained (and it surely can be), the average citizen will fall in line and do as ordered and continue to conduct their daily lives. Any "insurgency" will be small and facing an uphill battle against a citizenry that is being told they are better off to support the government forces....just like during the American Revolution.

Guns will be effective against marauders.
Guns "alone" will be of little value against government forces...and with each passing year they're pulling FURTHER ahead so that soon a projectile firing weapon will be quite futile against any government intrusion.

Here is an example....in Vietnam WE lost around 58,000 troops over LESS than 10 years of open war.
In Iraq and Afghanistan combined we lost about 4,000 over MORE than 10 years of war.
Bear in mind "WE" will be the Iraqis and Afghanistanians against our own government forces or their subcontractors....and the technology available to government forces is inexorably moving FORWARD whereas that which we the people have is fairly stagnant.
On the most arrogant fool can presume that somehow the Iraqi and Afghani "insurgents" were somehow "dumber" than our mostly buffoonish private sector "resistance" forces...yet THEY suffered a 100:1 kill ratio against American forces. We won't do any better, and with each passing MONTH, the odds are we will do WORSE when our time comes!

FUTURE WAR will be carried out in cyberspace. Shut down the government's weapons at their respective command centers to allow insurgent forces to overwhelm the fixed defenses, yet even that will be increasingly difficult.

 

[Hamster65]

That's easy, my "bug out" vehicle is AWD, gets great gas mileage and I can take the back roads all the way to the compound which BTW, is heavily fortified. Once there, we have a combined amount of about 2 years worth of food, water and ammo.

 

[Llando88]

Our plan below:

 

[HOUSTON RICK]

I will not be participating in firefights against US government forces or scrambling over impassable roads killing for a cup of gasoline. I will be hunkered down in Chez Rick watching old movies on my solar powered VCR between turns on guard duty and the grill. Finally enjoying my collections of music, DVDs, books, wine, beer, guns, ammunition and preserved food.

 

[SW01SS]

The worst issue faced in a collapse of social services will be the shut-off of water into and out of homes in the cities. One can have all the lanterns, generators, canned food, guns, and ammo in the world, but once the toilets stop evacuating human waste THAT CITY is DEAD...as are all those who remain in it!
Ancient Rome was able to support as many as a million residents due to a very efficient water transport system that functioned autonomously, but modern systems do not...they require electricity and pumping stations....water treatment centers, and once those shut down, there is NO CHOICE BUT to "bug out."
On the other hand, such a total collapse is unlikely...the government has ZERO interest and possible gain by the populace being completely disenfranchised. Regardless of all the nonsensical talk about FEMA establishing camps to house all the citizens, the FACTS ARE that people getting up and going to work every day is what EVERY government needs if it wishes to remain in power.
The notion of a total collapse of government (as in Alas Babylon) is a very "neat" fictional treatment that is no longer valid. NOBODY wants to destroy infrastructure because it renders whatever "conquest" completely worthless....yes, the one exception is "terrorists" who want to shut down infrastructure but the fact is they lack the resources to accomplish such a lofty goal.
Once "your" city is affected by a major social disruption, FEMA will move in, Federalized troops will move in and set up a cordon around the city. Food distribution will begin and all citizens inside the cordon will be expected to show up to register and receive aid...those "preppers" who choose to hunker down and wait it out will find themselves in hot water when their food supplies finally run out (or low) and they present themselves at a FEMA sponsored food distribution point...the government will want to know just WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN for the past year!

Granted a rogue government MIGHT set off a nuke...but factually a rogue INDIVIDUAL is MORE LIKELY to set off a nuke...but the threat of some global "nuclear" exchange is pretty much null. This means maybe ONE city somewhere evaporates, but that's about it. Governments and Capitalists have been, and ARE working hard to ensure that no ONE "terrorist" can neutralize anything beyond a small city...

The purpose of private firearms ownership is purely to deal with criminal marauders during a period of Martial Law. The "modern" military is amply prepared to deal with sporadic and disjointed civil disobedience. The military currently HAS an "area denial weapon fielded that drives people AWAY from a covered area...guns won't be of much use against that...not that any "big time" weapon cannot be defeated, just that future "rebellion" won't be as simple as taking up arms against the oppressor.

On top of all this...just as we can SEE in foreign countries, as long as some semblance of perceived social order can be maintained (and it surely can be), the average citizen will fall in line and do as ordered and continue to conduct their daily lives. Any "insurgency" will be small and facing an uphill battle against a citizenry that is being told they are better off to support the government forces....just like during the American Revolution.

Guns will be effective against marauders.
Guns "alone" will be of little value against government forces...and with each passing year they're pulling FURTHER ahead so that soon a projectile firing weapon will be quite futile against any government intrusion.

Here is an example....in Vietnam WE lost around 58,000 troops over LESS than 10 years of open war.
In Iraq and Afghanistan combined we lost about 4,000 over MORE than 10 years of war.
Bear in mind "WE" will be the Iraqis and Afghanistanians against our own government forces or their subcontractors....and the technology available to government forces is inexorably moving FORWARD whereas that which we the people have is fairly stagnant.
On the most arrogant fool can presume that somehow the Iraqi and Afghani "insurgents" were somehow "dumber" than our mostly buffoonish private sector "resistance" forces...yet THEY suffered a 100:1 kill ratio against American forces. We won't do any better, and with each passing MONTH, the odds are we will do WORSE when our time comes!

FUTURE WAR will be carried out in cyberspace. Shut down the government's weapons at their respective command centers to allow insurgent forces to overwhelm the fixed defenses, yet even that will be increasingly difficult.

I regards to your government scenario, how much of our military would side with our government? If it came down to a war against a tyrannical US government I'd like to think that the majority of the individuals in our armed forces would attempt to turn the advanced technology you speak of on the government and not on the citizens. I think that would even the playing field quite a bit. Also, there are a bit over a million people currently serving in our armed forces correct? Many of which are currently stationed in other countries. I don't know how many exactly. In Florida alone, there are over a million people with CCW permits. Those are people just with permits, then you got to consider those without permits that may also have a small arsenal of weapons that they keep at home. Thats just one state, so in terms of numbers, I think throughout the country, patriotic 2nd amendment supporters who will be willing to fight should vastly outnumber our own military. Still a losing battle for us, but with many many veterans on this site I'd like to think that when you all were serving, if something wild happened and our government sent you guys to harm American citizens that you would turn the firepower on the government instead. And I'd like to think that those serving in our military today would do the same.

 

[Damn Yankee]

Depends on magnitude of the transient.
all of the solid state is susceptible to various degrees.
Cars, running non points type ignitions might not fare so well.

You think If I get the industrial size package of aluminum foil and covered my car (shinny side up) I would be OK?

 

[Mcwsky09]

When i mentioned to my sister that I would grab all my guns and ammo and head to her place she mentioned the nearby nuclear power plant at a possible target - or even as a possible source of a local disaster that would force her to bug out - so still working on plan B.

 

[H Richard]

To hunker down in place, with the capability to maintain your infrastructure as long as possible is a more viable plan. I have read this book and it paints a very realistic picture of what actually could happen. I could arm a considerable number of neighbors to assist in repelling any marauders trying to access our location.

 

[feralmerril]

What would/will happen when overnight people realize their money is totally worthless? Why go to work for pay that no one will accept? Nothing will be produced. Cops wont work, medical people wont go to the hospital for free, total breakdown when people believe the dollar is absolutely worthless. If you worked for the electric company would you go to work for a paycheck that now was monopoly money? Would soldiers stay in or be soldiers if the money was no good and they wouldn't be fed? Most officers have walked away etc? Isn't this all it would take? We may already be there but if we arent at some point with all this phony spending that has no product, inflation and fewer people that keep working for the majority on the dole it eventually has to happen unless our leaders in power spin around on their ideology.
In fact already if the most conservative thinkers got elected in every last position the past sins and damage long ago, it still might not be enough. That isnt going to happen anyway.

 

[Vulcan Bob]

Well I for one hope something like this sort of thing never happens. However I do not subscribe to the "it cant happen here" syndrome, it very will can and faster than one would think. I live in a small town surrounded by farms of one sort or another and know some of them. If my hide in plain sight, looking just as ragged and hungry (Eating as little of our stash as possible.) as everyone else thing don't work perhaps some of the farmers may need manual laborer types who also can provide security in exchange for sustenance meals. In any case it will be difficult times indeed!

 

[Rule3]

Just look at what happens when the damn Internet or Website goes doe for a few hours? People can not survive that!

Used to happen at work, sometimes for a day or more. We ground to a halt. Imagine the whole Country?

I have done disaster relief after the major Hurricanes in Florida. As bad as they were it was nothing like New Orleans.

Driving into Homestead Fl after Andrew was like a war zone or a A bomb went off. It was leveled. How did they help folks they (the State)gave out Food Stamps (actual stamps back then not cards) Well that's great there is no stores or electricity to use them at!!. People went from one line to another as there were no computers. How many in your family? Oh 12, OK here. What did FEMA do?? Not a thing.

Those disaster do not compare to something that would be Country wide.

Look how poorly things evolved in those situations!

FEMA is a joke, I have seen them in INaction, the amount of money spent and supplied nothing. For years the mobile home villages they set up (after Charley)(way way to late) became so bad they torn them down

Heck they couldn't even supply blue tarps as promised. Home Depot and Lowes donated it.

These are natural disasters. If a dirty bomb goes off in a City well were do all those people go?? The Super Dome