Disturbing memo from SG Ammo

[swsig]

FYI, the following commentary was received yesterday from SG Ammo in their weekly email to their customers:

"A lot has changed in the ammo business over the past 40 days as the Covid-19 outbreak created the largest rush to purchase ammo in all of history. Supply has been badly diminished, and bottlenecks in manufacturing and distribution will continue cause shortages for months yet to come. From what I am seeing the worst is yet to come on ammunition availability which I believe will reach its worst in the next 30 to 90 days. The buyer's market conditions which I have talked about in so many prior newsletters that brought ammo prices to 12 year lows in 2018, 2019 and early 2020 have passed. I hope most people followed my advise in the past and stocked up while supply and prices were at their best. At this time supply has for the most part been bought up, most ammo factories and importers have done substantial price increases, and moving forward availability will be limited to what the factories can make and allocate to their distributors. Covid-19 has caused some ammunition factories in Europe and Russia to close and / or reduce production, and most likely that will spill over here to some of the manufacturers in the USA at some point. I'd love to stay positive but realistically there are dark times ahead for the ammunition supply chain. All things considered, I believe we still have some decent deals in stock, admittedly not as good as they were, but not as bad as I expect them to become. If you are sitting on large quantities of ammo it might be wise to sit it out for a while but if you are short in supply it might be a good idea to get a few cases before availability gets worse..."

That's depressing. I'm glad I'm stocked up. I hope the rest of you guys are stocked up, too.

 

[308 Scout]

Primers- Check.
Powder- Check.
Bullets- Check.
Raw lead- check.
Brass- Check.
Yep, I'm stocked up!

308S

 

[SuperMan]

I learned from the early 1990s Klinton scare....never have less than a two year supply of whatever you shoot...have never been caught short since.

Bob

 

[Dave Lively]

That email says a lot about SG ammo. No BS or trying to get people to buy ammo at todays prices unless they really need to, just honest information even if it is not what I want to hear. Good prices in todays market too.

SG has been my first choice for bulk ammo and I have bought enough from them over the past 5 years I can wait out not only CV19 but several years of an antigun president if Trump loses in November. Whenever prices return to normal SG is where I will look first when it is time to restock.

 

[Telecaster]

Strange that no other disease has ever caused ammo factory workers to call in sick ever before. Now, a virus that tests positive in about 1/10 of 1% of people is expected to shut things down, just like that.

[/sarcasm]

 

[coachray]

I've never needed to order ammo online, as I've always been able to find what I need at a good price from local stores. I have a large stock of all the calibers I shoot, but if I ever need to order ammo I will check out SG Ammo after reading this. Wish more companies were that honest.

 

[murphydog]

Well, here we go again. Hopefully the shortage will be less prolonged and severe than the last one.

 

[shocker]

I could see ammo from Spain or Italy going scarce, Russia, not so much as once you get out of Moscow or St. Petersburg, social distancing is built in by the geography.
I have a good stash of everything except I'm low on 125 gr 357 bullets. No biggee.

 

[bigwheelzip]

I got that SGAmmo email and thought it was good business, and just plain thoughtful.

Now that hundreds of employees at meatpacking plants are getting the virus, I need to stock up on bacon and sausage while I still can.

Sent from my Moto G (5) Plus using Tapatalk

 

[scooter123]

Strange that no other disease has ever caused ammo factory workers to call in sick ever before. Now, a virus that tests positive in about 1/10 of 1% of people is expected to shut things down, just like that.

[/sarcasm]

This particular pandemic features a virus that is estimated to be 3 to 4 TIMES as contagious as the Spanish Flu in 1918. BTW estimates for the death toll in that pandemic are estimated to be over 50 million worldwide and possibly as high as 100 million. While the current measures are a real burden the simple fact is that isolation is reducing the death toll of this disease.

BTW, I learned from Sandy Hook. Between years of stocking up and Arthritis now limiting some of my handgun shooting activities I am confident that I have enough Handgun ammo and components on hand to last me for the rest of my life.

 

[Ranger17]

I usually try to replace what I shoot and pick up what I need, noting this is also a hobby so an hour at the range could mean hundreds of rounds gone. I enjoy it.

That said, a combination of our ranges closed (for who knows how long) and getting myself to use ammo more sparingly while still practicing and having fun; I should be ok for a bit should availability be low. Self rationing ammo is something I’ll just work on more; while manufacturers, distributors and retailers build supply back up.

 

[BE Mike]

I almost put my bullet casting equipment, that I haven't used in decades, up for sale. Now it looks like I dodged a bullet, so to speak.

 

[Classic Radio99]

Although we all know that once prices on anything shoot up, they're unlikely to go back to where they started, but there are signs of hope.

No surprise that 9mm, .223, 5.56, and 7.62/39 are most affected, but I'm seeing other calibers seem to be getting back to normal. For example, .38 has similar pricing to where we started, and some places have .357 that's close to pre-panic levels.

The other thing is that the manufacturers have to be ramping up production as fast as they can, there's money to be made here, and the faster they get the product out while prices are high, the more money they make. This will start to increase the supply curve after a while.

On the other hand, the demand curve will start to drop as people reach their desired stock level, or run out of storage space, run out of money or both.

At some point, the two curves will meet, and we will see prices start to come down, maybe not as fast as we like, but they will.
When it does, it will be time to add to my stock in a rational manner.

Finally, bigwheelzip is scaring me, a world without bacon and sausage is not a world I want to live in.. I'm going to need a bigger freezer.

 

[BB57]

I get annoyed everytime panic buying and hoarding happens, regardless of the cause.

There is always a small percentage of shooters who will buy up whatever they can find with an intent to re-sell at inflated prices. There are also a percentage of retailers who will inflate ammo prices - beyond their cost increases - in a time of crisis, citing "demand" and pushing it was far as the market will bear just to make extra profit.

Those retailers get NONE of my business, during or after the event.

One of the tragedies in the US today is that we've forgotten about ethics, more more correctly redefined ethics as "if it's not illegal, then it is moral and ethical". That applies to things like long range hunting, just as much as it does to people buying a store's entire stock of toilet paper to re-sell, just to make a buck.

If we don't stop acting as individuals with no thought to the common good and our moral and ethical obligation to help others when we can, within the scope of the constitution and individual rights, we soon won't have a nation worth living in.

If you can't help others, at least conduct yourselves in a manner that doesn't harm others or infringe on the rights of others. It's called "civility" and it's gone out of style.

My father was raised in the Great Depression and served in WWII. If there was an upside to those events, it's the drawing together as a nation that occured, transforming a nation in positive ways that led to the most productive 50 year period in US history.

If there is an upside to COVID-19, it is the potential for it to do the same for us - but we have to seize the opportunity, and not just choose that path, but walk it.

 

[Engineer1911]

I learned from President Clinton. I stocked up on powder and primers Wednesday morning after President Obama's first election win. Gun show specials added to the inventory, and now a lifetime supply has been achieved without a reduction in shooting activities.

At age 72 that is easy to do.

 

[rkittine]

I buy most things to replace stock that I have. Buy wine to put into the wine cellar to replenish the wine I have taken out to eat. Meat in the freezer, canned food in the pantry etc. No different with Ammo. I have enough Ammo and Reloading supplies, probably for the rest of my life and with most of the ranges currently closed, I am not using any up that I feel in any way need to be replaced.

Bob

 

[Mike SC Hunter]

Primers- Check.
Powder- Check.
Bullets- Check.
Raw lead- check.
Brass- Check.
Yep, I'm stocked up!

308S

..........X2

 

[mrmike7189]

same here

I learned from the early 1990s Klinton scare....never have less than a two year supply of whatever you shoot...have never been caught short since.

Bob

same here...I have 2k rounds each of all cailbers .
I shoot maybe 1k per year? so 2 years worth sitting in ammo cans

 

[Eddietruett]

I was in Sportsmans Warehouse in Columbia SC yesterday and they had a good supply of ammo, even 9mm. Limited purchases to 4 boxes, but the sales rep said they have started getting ammo in fairly regular in the last week

 

[Borderboss]

I'm looking into my crystal ball for a prediction, based on the experience of having seen all this before many times.

Prices will be high and supply low for about 18 months. Then they will start to stabilize after everyone has what they need and won't buy at the inflated prices. Then prices will start to fall, eventually reaching the levels we were at in January 2020 about 30 months from now.

This will cause people to start buying up again, up to a point. But then the stocks will expand on retailer shelves, leading to ammo manufacturers complaining about having to cut back production and lay off staff because people aren't buying. That'll be about 42 months from now.

All of this assumes we don't run into another emergency like another over-reaction to a pandemic du jour, or the country being stupid enough to elect a Democrat president.

This is the exact pattern we saw with the last ammo shortage, and the run on AR-15s after Obama was elected. You couldn't find .223, 9mm, or .22 LR ammo to save your life. Eventually, the retailers started practically giving the stuff away, and layering rebates on top of the low prices.

Cycles are called cycles because they keep happening.