From Rich Duprey, formerly a Motley Fool:
At the recent industry SHOT Show trade show, Smith & Wesson pointed out that when it looked at the adjusted numbers put out by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, which eliminates checks on permits and active concealed carry permit holders to provide a better indication of industry conditions, it found demand for handguns was down nearly 30% and long guns were off almost 9%.
That's troubling for American Outdoor because it generates most of its revenues from sales of handguns. In its fiscal second-quarter earnings report, handguns accounted for 72% of all firearms sales and 60% of total revenues. Firearms, whether handguns or long guns, accounted for 83% of total revenues. Over the first six months, firearms represented 88% of total sales, so if the industry is slowing, American Outdoor is going to feel it.
The growth by acquisition strategy is often not a successful one because rollups rarely see the synergies often touted when the deal is made. So far, the acquisitions it has made are seemingly smart and let American Outdoor acclimate itself to the new conditions. But that could derail quickly, particularly if the gun market implodes as some suggest could happen and its performance appreciably declines. In such a scenario, investors will find 2017 to be American Outdoor Brands' worst year yet.