I have to stop...

[Gamecock]

Fishslayer, your sig line is "you can keep your gun. Period."

Yet you believe what you are hearing about .22s.

 

[Art Doc]

dswancutt- Demand would not explain the stores not getting deliveries. Walmart buys at wholesale and sells at MSRP. If a distributor holds out for gouger wholesale prices and sells to outlets willing to pay the jacked up price that would explain Walmart not getting any. But EVERYONE being short of product? Cabela's and/or other online dealers can't be buying the total production output. Note how seldom they have inventory and how quickly it is gone when the ad goes up. They aren't getting millions of boxes. Nobody is getting what they need to meet normal demand.

The product is simply not available in usual quantity. Again, for the 100th time, that's a supply problem, not a demand problem.

But I'm done with this discussion. Whatever the hell the reason, the 22 ammo shortage continues.

 

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Fishslayer, your sig line is "you can keep your gun. Period."

Yet you believe what you are hearing about .22s.

Let me ask you, what part(s) of Mark Keefe's piece (linked in above post) did you find not credible?

American Rifleman is owned by the NRA. Mark Keefe isn't just some blogger or Net ninja repeating what a Walmart employee told him. Keefe is editor-in-chief of American Rifleman. Keefe was appointed editor of American Rifleman magazine in 2000, and was promoted to editor-in-chief of American Rifleman and "American Rifleman Television" in 2003. He started out as a volunteer at the National Firearms Museum in 1989 and became a curatorial assistant there in 1990. He joined the American Rifleman staff in 1991 as an assistant technical editor before being promoted to associate technical editor in 1993. In 1995, he became managing editor. An NRA Life member, Keefe is a shooter, hunter and gun collector, specializing in British Lee-Enfield rifles.

Looks like to me that Keefe has a fair amount of research to offer in the article, including actually going to rimfire production plants. What say you?

Here's the link again.

American Rifleman | OK, Really, What

 

[RJJ 1971]

"While you may choose to reject the notion, it is a fact."

Sorry, totally wrong.

I have spoken with a score of store managers and owners who all say the same thing: they are not getting supplied by distributors. The Walmart manager told me he's been getting less than 5% of normal deliveries the past 3 years. Again, not a problem caused by buying, caused by supply.

The shortage IS NOT DUE TO BUYERS GRABBING IT OFF THE SHELF.

The ammo is not getting to the shelf. It's a supply problem, not a demand problem.

I have read the manufacturers claim they are running at full capacity. If true, I have no idea where it is all going. The retail stores are not getting it. Some say the military buys it and gets first dibs. Some say other federal agencies are buying it. I don't know. It's going somewhere other than the retail stores.

By the youtube videos for almost 3 years.
Looks like almost all the 22 ammo goes to Florida Walmarts.
Think I read or heard that Florida gets sent almost 40% - 50% of ammo in the USA.
Figured some of factors would be weather, economy in Florida, average age of resident, proximity of ports. But I don't know what else would support that info.

 

[ChattanoogaPhil]

It's a supply problem, not a demand problem.

You tell us how you've dramatically changed your buying habits (increased your inventory 10x) then profess there's no demand issue. Curious that you don't recognize an issue at your own hand. Your increased buying driven by "worry" is not unique.

As everyone knows for the past 3 years 22 LR ammo has been in very short supply. When this started I had about 2,000 rounds on the shelf. That's enough for several years at the rate I use them.

But i worried as the shortage continued. So I started dropping in at my local Walmart a couple times each week to see if they had any on the shelf. About 95% of the time they did not. When they did, there was a 3 box limit. I bought what they had when they had it.

Recently I started feeling like I had accumulated too much. Even with very hit and miss acquisitions I had built up my stores dramatically. I started sharing with friends who were low. I gave away 4 or 5 bricks. I gave some away to stranger I met at the store as he was desperately seeking ammo so his granddaughter could shoot the rifle she got for Christmas. But even as I unloaded some boxes I obtained more here and there over the months and the stack grew.

Today I stopped for some groceries and they had 525 bricks of Remington and 100 box Winchesters. I bagged the bricks (last 3 they had gotten in). By a quick estimate I now have about 20,000 rounds stored up. Far more than a lifetime supply. I shouldn't buy any more but I'm afraid that if I see it I will bag it out of paranoia.

I wish this situation would correct itself. If I saw a plethora of 22 ammo on the dealers' shelves I could stop buying in comfort.

 

[O2Guy]

Well, I'm with SaxonPig on this one. When I see reasonably priced .22 ammo, I buy it. But, I only buy CCI Mini Mags now.
Not too long ago I was at Gander Mountain and they had a shelf full of CCI at $7.99/100. The employee told me to get all that I wanted and that they had more in the back. I bought 500 rounds.
Since then, at another Gander Mountain, they had 300 round packs of CCI with one of those swamp people on the package. I bought 6 of those.
If it's sitting on the shelf I feel it is there for anyone that wants it. I don't go out looking for it. And I have walked away from a lot of .22 ammo.
Many people, usually the complainers, didn't have any ammo on hand when supplies seemed to dry up. It's not my fault that these people didn't prepare. I hope that they have learned from these shortages, but I doubt it.

 

[Gamecock]

Keefe gives only hearsay evidence.

 

[dswancutt]

dswancutt- Demand would not explain the stores not getting deliveries. Walmart buys at wholesale and sells at MSRP. If a distributor holds out for gouger wholesale prices and sells to outlets willing to pay the jacked up price that would explain Walmart not getting any. But EVERYONE being short of product? Cabela's and/or other online dealers can't be buying the total production output. Note how seldom they have inventory and how quickly it is gone when the ad goes up. They aren't getting millions of boxes. Nobody is getting what they need to meet normal demand.

The product is simply not available in usual quantity. Again, for the 100th time, that's a supply problem, not a demand problem.

But I'm done with this discussion. Whatever the hell the reason, the 22 ammo shortage continues.

Why do you keep acting like supply and demand are completely unrelated to each other, like apples and studebakers. Supply and demand are ying and yang. The supply of 22 ammo was more than the demand prior to the Sandy Hook shooting. After that event, DEMAND outstripped the supply and it is just now kinda sorta catching up. All retailers are ordering as much as they possibly can and it sells out within days, instead of the weeks or months prior to 2009. Again, using the example of yourself. Before 2009, I would bet you bought ammo if you needed it or maybe if it was a smoking hot deal, now you buy it regardless of need, like everyone and their dog is doing now. All this demand exceeds the supply.

 

[PatriotX]

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't teach it economics.

 

[M29since14]

...No conspiracy, no government intervention, no aliens.

What?! No aliens? Boy is that disappointing...

One of you guys explain to me AGAIN how this is not a demand problem. On the other hand, never mind.

 

[ChattanoogaPhil]

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't teach it economics.

Well....

There's a lot of factors. I think a major factor that some folks might not fully appreciate is how much the below type rifles increased rimfire consumption. These type rifles flooded the market about two or three years prepanic. Cheap bulkpack was already getting more difficult to find. Blowing through a brick with this S&W 15-22 at the Plinking range is real easy. This ain't our daddy's Marlin 60 rimfire world anymore.

 

[don5]

^I agree with what Phil says. I have three of these rifles and they all shoot good.

I also have around 7K in 22 ammo stored up. My son and I use them to squirrel hunt with. I have 10+ 22 rimfire rifles also. I am happy with my stash and have not bought any ammo in over a year. I think for most of us it is the thrill of the hunt to obtain some 22 ammo.

BTW- Saxon, how does that Model 1 shoot? I just bought a Model 1 dated 1952. It has joined the Model 2 and 2-E that I have. My 16 year old son has a nice Model 1 dated 1950. All of these rifles shoot really good.

 

[Fishslayer]

Buy all you want; they'll make more.

Got a link for that, or did you just completely make it up?

Fishslayer, your sig line is "you can keep your gun. Period."

Yet you believe what you are hearing about .22s.

Keefe gives only hearsay evidence.

Well... OK. I'm guessing you are trying to make some sort of point & have some sort of evidence. I'm all ears.

Please don't refer me to a Youtube video with some guy with a buzzcut, badboy shades & a tactical goatee reporting from his home bunker...

 

[Muddyboot]

Haven't we had this discussion before ? Saxon, buy all the ammo you very well please, without guilt, for whatever reason you choose.

 

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Well... OK. I'm guessing you are trying to make some sort of point & have some sort of evidence. I'm all ears.

Please don't refer me to a Youtube video with some guy with a buzzcut, badboy shades & a tactical goatee reporting from his home bunker...

Could be the guy that Mark Keefe mentions who thinks Bloomberg is buying it all...

[ame]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbp_bnCTom4[/ame]

 

[desi2358]

Amazing how this just keeps going and going isn't it? Anyone who buys 22 whenever they see it needs to realize they are part of the shortage! The store I work for has been getting shipments of 22 regularly over the last year. Demand has not dropped and only bumping the price up a bit has slowed down the supply getting cleaned off the shelf as soon as it goes out. The key thing is the amount of ammo that comes in would have lasted for a much longer time 6 years ago. What took a couple weeks to sell then will go in a couple days now. And everyone is in the same boat! When the shelf is cleaned off it's also much easier to just tell people you're not getting much and you're not sure when you'll get any more than to get into long debates about supply and demand (and they always want to know when you're getting the next shipment so they can get in and get theirs!).

 

[Mickey D]

I think a Karma gift is due.

 

[Fishslayer]

Could be the guy that Mark Keefe mentions who thinks Bloomberg is buying it all...

Granted... this is only hearsay... and my own limited, small sample size experience... but a whole grunch of people on Calguns is still griping about the old retired guys at Walmart that hang out at 0600 & buy up the .22 when it hits the shelves.

Indeed, there are still flippers on our Marketplace board flogging Thunderduds for $75/brick but I don't see as many buyers as a year ago.

My closest Walmart is 20 miles away so I don't participate but we used to have a "Breakfast Club" at my local Big 5 on ammo day. Not any more. We were all simple hoarders so I'm guessing they got all they wanted or got tired of getting up early & waiting till 1000.

 

[chaparrito]

If over-buying isn't at least part of the problem (I believe it IS the problem), then answer this. If everyone who behaves like Pavlov's dog when they see a brick of .22 just QUIT that behavior, how much would it affect the available supply? You're hardly alone in buying all the .22 you can every time you see it on a shelf.

 

[W.E.G.]

This thread interests me.