Timber Wolf
Member
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2009
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It is just such talk as that that keeps me from carrying and enjoying my 4040.
I seriously can't take anymore of the 3rd gen prices
- Thread starter perfectcircle1
- Start date
It is just such talk as that that keeps me from carrying and enjoying my 4040.
vigil617
US Veteran
Hokie, where were you when I was selling mine a few weeks ago on here?
I did notice that a pretty nice one sold just last night on GB for $505. The guy that bought it should be indicted for theft!
I wonder why S&W doesn't bring the Gen3 guns back. From my limited knowledge, they are still being made for various police depts....so why not just make more? The market is flooded with plastic pistols, a gen3 gun would be unique now(ironic), they will sell
finesse_r
Member
The last time I priced a new gold cup back in the 1980's you could get a Gold Cup for $400 to $425 retail all over Houston. Carter Country had them for $405 and they are not cheap on their prices. I certainly wish I had bought a dozen of them and put them in the safe. Recently, I have seen them in like new in the box condition bringing upwards of $1200. It is true they have not gone up as much as the older colt revolvers, but it is a lot more than 20 or 30 percent.
I will grant they are nothing like the Pythons in like new condition or the Diamond backs, as far as going up in multiples of their original cost. I bought a 22. LR Diamond back new for $285 in Pasadena Texas in the 1980's and sold it about 6 or 7 years ago for $1000 with box and papers. It was in excellent condition with a very low round count, but not quite like new. I expect it will bring well over $1200 today if it is still in that condition.
These early no rail 4513TSW were made 1997-1999, so the Colts I am referring to had longer to appreciate. That is one factor I did not allow for. I don't know what the newer Gold Cups were selling for in the same period (1997-99). So if you are looking at 1997-99 prices, and all I remember are the very early prices, you may be right and I may be comparing very different time frames. I really don't follow Colts as I don't intend to ever buy another one. I am simply reacting to some of the recent values that have been staggeringly high for what you get, and for what they sold for when I was pricing them.
In 1993 I bought new a 4006 (not the TSW) for $500. I still have the box and paperwork on it and I have put maybe 200 rounds through it. It was never carried and basically in pristine condition. If I were interested in selling it, which at this time I am not, I doubt I could get more than $600 to $650 for it 20 years later in vastly inflated dollars. in real value it is worth less today than when I bought it.
In other words my original payment of $500 would buy more than $1000 dollars of most items these days. Certainly my 1993 $500 would be worth more than a $1000 today in groceries, gas, automobiles, motor cycles, homes, and all the other items the government does not use when calculating inflation. So unlike my Colt diamond back that increased in value far above the rate of inflation, my third generation 4006 has actually lost value in terms of real buying power.
So getting back to the original theme of third generation pistols being over priced and selling for more than they originally costs, I say no way. I still think third generation pistols are one of the best value buys in firearms today. They are the only real high quality gun I can think of that is under priced in the market place today.
One reason for this is that 3 to 6 years ago, a great many police departments dumped all their third generation pistols on the market at the same time. This flooded the market and kept prices down for a long time. That over supply has slowly but surely been absorbed by the civilian population. Prices are starting to rise on third generation pistols, but nothing like I expect them to rise in the next 10 years.
I expect those complaining about current prices of third generation pistols are reacting to the increase from the prices of a few years ago when the market was artificially depressed and flooded by all the police service guns, as so many departments switched to the cheaper plastic fantastic pistols. The supply for several years exceeded the demand. That is no longer the case, so look for them to go up up up from here.
OP
perfectcircle1
Member
Again, I agree with paying upwards of 7-800 for one like new in box with paperwork and all the goodies. Its when i see a gun that was mass produced and particular one that looks like it got ran over by a train then sat in the rain for a year for 4-500 im completely dumbfounded. Why would i spend that money for junk. Im not a junk collector. Really doesn't even matter to me about the ones that are like new. If the price is outrageous ill just take 2 more steps to the 1911 cabinet 
Denver Dick
US Veteran
Because 1) they would cost A LOT MORE $$$ to make now and 2) it has grown to be a plastic world. FWIW
Denver Dick
US Veteran
Exactly!
A few of my 19 3rd Gens are 98% or so, but the vast majority range from LNIB to 99%. The most I paid for any one of them was around $675, but most cost me between $350 and $550. However, it should be noted that I purchased all of them between January 2007 and June 2009. Hunting down 99% or better 3rd Gens throughout the counties of Los Angeles and Orange in California was an obsession for me during that period. At one point I had around 25 or so, but I sold off some duplicates and a few I just didn't like.
Frankly, it was round that June 2009 that I noticed the prices were rising quickly for the really nice ones. In fact, it was the last one I bought that cost me the $675. That one was my 645 LNIB with paperwork (yeah, I know it's a 2nd Gen, but it's more like a 3rd than a 2nd to me). It was (and still is) absolutely lovely . . . nice way to end an obsession.
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James&theGiant1911
Member
I am not quoting that long story you just told, but I think maybe you have me wrong? I was not complaining about the prices, lucky for me that when I have been in search of 3rd gens there has been enough of them on the market to make me really not over pay for them. Enough wholesalers and distributors get them that there still seems to be a lot of them out there. Only do rare models seem to bring more money these days.
I understand your inflation model but have some better inflation for you. I still have my grandfathers 1958 Model 12 Winchester, and I doubt very seriously he paid 75-100 bucks for it and a 1965 Browning Sweet 16 that was purchased new for 150 bucks and I just came across one in worst shape then mine for 3 grand at the local Caebelas. Things increase in price especially as inflation increases and workmanship/ quality decreases. I love third gen smiths and they are nice firearms but again, I do not know if they will ever bring the kind of super money a Colt SAA can or even obscure guns like the Bren Tenn which were not that great when new but now are 3-4 grand a piece.
Some times guns you think will be worth a lot are not and the ones you would think would be worth nothing bring the money. I think no one can say which 3rd gens are going to be the most desirable yet, the market will determine that one. Since I am a betting man then my money is on the Tacticals, Performance Center pieces, and Horton specials.
I understand your inflation model but have some better inflation for you. I still have my grandfathers 1958 Model 12 Winchester, and I doubt very seriously he paid 75-100 bucks for it and a 1965 Browning Sweet 16 that was purchased new for 150 bucks and I just came across one in worst shape then mine for 3 grand at the local Caebelas. Things increase in price especially as inflation increases and workmanship/ quality decreases. I love third gen smiths and they are nice firearms but again, I do not know if they will ever bring the kind of super money a Colt SAA can or even obscure guns like the Bren Tenn which were not that great when new but now are 3-4 grand a piece.
Some times guns you think will be worth a lot are not and the ones you would think would be worth nothing bring the money. I think no one can say which 3rd gens are going to be the most desirable yet, the market will determine that one. Since I am a betting man then my money is on the Tacticals, Performance Center pieces, and Horton specials.
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I traded a Deer rifle for my 4506 in 1988. Carried it for 12 years. It has holster wear. The corners at the back of the trigger guard bothered my index finger after long sessions. A gunsmith smoothed them down just a touch. He then polished the back end of the barrel cause it looked cool. He was right and it still shines today, and that was in the 90's The grip is pinged in many places from hitting everything I passed for that 12 years. It has never been dropped. Its been disassembled more time than I can count. When I retired so did the 4506. She is still the prettiest girl at the dance. And if I had to dance again I'd want no other at my side.
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smithscott
Member
Most of the below makes sense, but some of the math is plain wrong. The return on investment for guns, for the most part, is well below the rate of inflation, let alone other investments. Let's use the Colt Gold Cup example as the poster used it as an example of a great return. In 1980, a Colt Gold Cup could be purchased for $400. That $400 in 1980 is worth $1133.96 in 2013 dollars if one uses the federal government's CPI inflation numbers (which most people say underscores the inflation rate). That is pretty close to what that same pistol is worth today. If we use a 4% annual inflation rate for the calculations, that same $400 would be worth $1199.48 today.
That means the Gold Cup returned 4% per year every year. That is not great performance. DuPont stock returned 4.35% annually before dividends are considered, and DuPont has not been a winner. ExxonMobil (Exxon in 1993) returned 8.77% per year before dividends are considered. More than double the return of the Gold Cup in a very safe stock and the stock also paid a fair amount in dividends.
What that means to 3rd Generation prices is that the guns are dropping in value when inflation is considered. $650 today for a 4006 that sold for $500 in 1993 is an annual return of 1.32%, well under even the official inflation rate. So one could argue that 3rd Generation guns are a better deal today than they were in 1993. That makes sense as there are many other more popular choices today (Glock, M&P, etc.), so there are fewer buyers for the 3rd Generation guns. Fewer buyers means lower prices.
If collectors start to take an interest in the 3rd Generation guns, there should be higher rates of appreciation than the 1.32% from the above. But right now, these guns are screaming good deals for shooters and collectors, especially the prices for the police trade-ins. When one can buy a 4046 for $335 (a bunch for sale in classifieds for $310 delivered plus $25 FFL fee) in 2013 compared to $500 in 1993, there is no need to compute the rate of return. For giggles, it is roughly -2% annually. That is worth a few scratches.
That means the Gold Cup returned 4% per year every year. That is not great performance. DuPont stock returned 4.35% annually before dividends are considered, and DuPont has not been a winner. ExxonMobil (Exxon in 1993) returned 8.77% per year before dividends are considered. More than double the return of the Gold Cup in a very safe stock and the stock also paid a fair amount in dividends.
What that means to 3rd Generation prices is that the guns are dropping in value when inflation is considered. $650 today for a 4006 that sold for $500 in 1993 is an annual return of 1.32%, well under even the official inflation rate. So one could argue that 3rd Generation guns are a better deal today than they were in 1993. That makes sense as there are many other more popular choices today (Glock, M&P, etc.), so there are fewer buyers for the 3rd Generation guns. Fewer buyers means lower prices.
If collectors start to take an interest in the 3rd Generation guns, there should be higher rates of appreciation than the 1.32% from the above. But right now, these guns are screaming good deals for shooters and collectors, especially the prices for the police trade-ins. When one can buy a 4046 for $335 (a bunch for sale in classifieds for $310 delivered plus $25 FFL fee) in 2013 compared to $500 in 1993, there is no need to compute the rate of return. For giggles, it is roughly -2% annually. That is worth a few scratches.
OP
perfectcircle1
Member
People never take all of this into consideration! They say "i bought a house in 1975 for $25000 and sold it in 2013 for $250000, i made $225000!!!!" Well, no you didn't cause its gonna cost you that much to replace it. Buying something for a NOW price and selling it in the same market for the above now price is making money.
Perfectcircle1.... good point..... that's why you can't/shouldn't really count your home's value as "retirement money"........unless you really want to down size......LOL
But....... while the models above show guns only "breaking even" with inflation....... that is still better than.....my cameras, neighbor's boat, the Kids bicycles, my other neighbors pool.......
Guns are one of the few hobbies at least "break even" on some of the equipment......... lately I'm just glad I bought most of mine years ago!
But....... while the models above show guns only "breaking even" with inflation....... that is still better than.....my cameras, neighbor's boat, the Kids bicycles, my other neighbors pool.......
Guns are one of the few hobbies at least "break even" on some of the equipment......... lately I'm just glad I bought most of mine years ago!
OP
perfectcircle1
Member
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1). I'm pretty sure S&W could stay in the market. They are still making Gen3 guns for LEOs. Sigs cost quite a bit(220,226 etc) and they sell. 2). Not everyone want Tupperware, that's why Beretta 92s, CZ75s, Sigs and 1911s still sell.
4506517
Member
I just bought a pristine WVSP 4566TSW. It is by far the most expensive pistol I have ever purchased. Long ago I knew prices on 3rd gennies would start to rise. As most have said, the glut dumped into the market by LE agencies has almost been absorbed by the shooting public. I also notice that when there is a thread here about a particular model or type, prices begin to rise on GB. I would also agree that they are a well built gun period. They offer a viable alternative to those that do not want a 1911 or a SIG style handgun.
OP
perfectcircle1
Member
pics or it didn't happen....
iT'S NOT THE DEAL YOU GET. iT'S THE DEAL YOU THINK YOU GET!
It's not the deal you get. It's the deal you Think you get!
It's not the deal you get. It's the deal you Think you get!
Well lets see if I wuz robbed.
Yesterday I picked up a LNIB 4516-2 with original box & docs and two mags. $618 OTD including sales tax.
The same dealer had a case full of NIB plastic striker fired junk. An average asking price on those was between $550 and $575 OTD give or take.
So I got an all stainless steel, compact 45, hammer fired, accurate, reliable, durable, no cheaply made parts, with a great trigger, that looks good doing all that, for less than $625 and for about $50 to $60 more than all the lesser guns in his display case.
Nah, the prices aren't too much for 3rd gen guns. The new guns are just overpriced for what they are and are driving up the price on the excellent guns that are no longer produced. By S&W anyways. Regards 18DAI
Edited to add: Oh, BTW the 19 year old white three dot sights were still intact!! They hadn't fallen out like on the new guns!
Yesterday I picked up a LNIB 4516-2 with original box & docs and two mags. $618 OTD including sales tax.
The same dealer had a case full of NIB plastic striker fired junk. An average asking price on those was between $550 and $575 OTD give or take.
So I got an all stainless steel, compact 45, hammer fired, accurate, reliable, durable, no cheaply made parts, with a great trigger, that looks good doing all that, for less than $625 and for about $50 to $60 more than all the lesser guns in his display case.
Nah, the prices aren't too much for 3rd gen guns. The new guns are just overpriced for what they are and are driving up the price on the excellent guns that are no longer produced. By S&W anyways.
Regards 18DAIEdited to add: Oh, BTW the 19 year old white three dot sights were still intact!! They hadn't fallen out like on the new guns!
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Arik
Member
All depends on what the "stricker fired junk" was. If its a G30. Then no its not a better deal. Ill take the G30 for $550 any day over a 45xx for $100 more. If its a Ruger sure better deal.
To me value isnt just the gun but parts as well. I look at overall picture. Here is what a deal to me is. My 4586 for $375 otd.
Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk 2
To me value isnt just the gun but parts as well. I look at overall picture. Here is what a deal to me is. My 4586 for $375 otd.
Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk 2
OP
perfectcircle1
Member
What were we talking about again?
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