Missing Airliner

[moe smith]

On his show Tuesday night, Bill O'Reilly laid out what must have happened logically and succinctly...

The transponder was turned off....who had the ability to do that? Only someone who was in control of the airplane.

The airliner changed course after the transponder was turned off...who would have been able to do that? Again, only someone who was in control of the airplane.

No Mayday or distress calls while this is going on...how can that be possible, unless what is happening is no accident?

Wherever that airliner is right now, it's pretty clear that it didn't explode in mid-flight, and it was being flown by someone who didn't want to broadcast what was happening...

I think the only thing about this incident that's clear is that there's a missing 777 that nobody can find. There are probably dozens of possible plausible scenarios other than an intentional nefarious act, starting with known "issues" with 777 transponders, the latest of which you can read about here...

Chicago-bound Air India flight suffers snag, back to Delhi 6 hours after take-off - The Times of India

Now consider the Malaysia flight. Would you want to fly into China without a working transponder? Maybe in an F22. If my transponder went down approaching Vietnam or China, I'd be turning around too, if that's in fact what they did. But we don't even know that for sure.

We do know the transponder wasn't working. What if it wasn't working, not because of it's known inherent occasional unreliability, or an "intentional" disablement, but because of a larger issue. What if there was a systematic shutdown? A fire aboard that precluded the crew from getting off a Mayday, pan pan or any other transmission?

I don't think we, or anyone else, are at a point where we can say it was being flown by someone who didn't want to broadcast what was happening. Of course it's possible, along with other possibilities.

This incident has been a buffet of mis-information from the start. The perpetually changing track, the search areas, the "suspects" race, the supposed radar returns after the transponder shut down, and a host of other "facts", have all contributed to this circus, and those were "official" fibs, not counting the media's typical fantasyland coloring of the story.

Sadly, the response to the disappearance appears to be co-ordinated by clowns who as late as this morning still can't decide which side of Malaysia to search (STATEMENT: 'Our immediate focus is to find the aircraft,' transport minister says, 'we are focusing on both the South China Sea and Straits of Malacca'), and why, two days in, didn't Maylaysia have permission to search VietNam's territorial waters if that's where the official track, at the time, extrapolated them out to possibly be?

Speaking of track. Very early on, as this incident was transpiring, I clicked on FlightAware's website, which tracks commercial aviation. One thing that bugs me that I haven't heard addressed yet is FlightAware's track of 370 never left the coast of Malaysia. Never showed the aircraft over the water. I also haven't heard the very real possibility that this airplane, if it did travel the projected track, may be sitting in a rice paddy in VietNam like Value Jet or Eastern Air in the Florida everglades. There are still alot of scenarios that could have played out.

Last night, before turning in, there was a report that a Chinese vessel had run across a debris field. If this incident's history is the guide regarding that announcement, it's probably either erroneous or they found somebody's overboard discharge. There doesn't appear to be anything new about that report, or any other promising information for that matter, this morning.

So we wait.

 

[Beemerguy53]

I think the only thing about this incident that's clear is that there's a missing 777 that nobody can find. There are probably dozens of possible plausible scenarios other than an intentional nefarious act, starting with known "issues" with 777 transponders, the latest of which you can read about here...

Chicago-bound Air India flight suffers snag, back to Delhi 6 hours after take-off - The Times of India

Now consider the Malaysia flight. Would you want to fly into China without a working transponder? Maybe in an F22. If my transponder went down approaching Vietnam or China, I'd be turning around too, if that's in fact what they did. But we don't even know that for sure.

We do know the transponder wasn't working. What if it wasn't working, not because of it's known inherent occasional unreliability, or an "intentional" disablement, but because of a larger issue. What if there was a systematic shutdown? A fire aboard that precluded the crew from getting off a Mayday, pan pan or any other transmission?

I don't think we, or anyone else, are at a point where we can say it was being flown by someone who didn't want to broadcast what was happening. Of course it's possible, along with other possibilities.

This incident has been a buffet of mis-information from the start. The perpetually changing track, the search areas, the "suspects" race, the supposed radar returns after the transponder shut down, and a host of other "facts", have all contributed to this circus, and those were "official" fibs, not counting the media's typical fantasyland coloring of the story.

Sadly, the response to the disappearance appears to be co-ordinated by clowns who as late as this morning still can't decide which side of Malaysia to search (STATEMENT: 'Our immediate focus is to find the aircraft,' transport minister says, 'we are focusing on both the South China Sea and Straits of Malacca'), and why, two days in, didn't Maylaysia have permission to search VietNam's territorial waters if that's where the official track, at the time, extrapolated them out to possibly be?

Speaking of track. Very early on, as this incident was transpiring, I clicked on FlightAware's website, which tracks commercial aviation. One thing that bugs me that I haven't heard addressed yet is FlightAware's track of 370 never left the coast of Malaysia. Never showed the aircraft over the water. I also haven't heard the very real possibility that this airplane, if it did travel the projected track, may be sitting in a rice paddy in VietNam like Value Jet or Eastern Air in the Florida everglades. There are still alot of scenarios that could have played out.

Last night, before turning in, there was a report that a Chinese vessel had run across a debris field. If this incident's history is the guide regarding that announcement, it's probably either erroneous or they found somebody's overboard discharge. There doesn't appear to be anything new about that report, or any other promising information for that matter, this morning.

So we wait.

A different point of view... Crash Expert: Malaysia Jet Probe Will Become 'Criminal Inquiry' - NBC News

 

[moe smith]

A different point of view... Crash Expert: Malaysia Jet Probe Will Become 'Criminal Inquiry' - NBC News

Yes, I read the WSJ article a few hours ago. It's a very disturbing development. What's even more maddening is according to the "report", Boeing had to have known that searching the area they've been searching for 5-6 days was futile. Why wait to reveal they knew the engines kept running for 4-5 hours after losing the transponder? Many millions of dollars have been wasted on a wild goose chase and, even though we still don't know where the plane is, alot of family members and friends of the passengers have been intentionally misled.

 

[Jessie]

Yep, this just keeps getting stranger doesn't it?

 

[Steve in Vermont]

This may go down in history as the greatest mystery of the 21st century. As time goes on, unless there's a break, we may never know what happened.

 

[moe smith]

It's important to keep in mind this latest twist is still not "official". I've haven't seen anyone, in any official capacity claim ownership of this new narrative. "Sources" and "didn't want to be identified" should be taken with a grain of salt. Just this morning the opposite occurred when Malaysian officials denied the Boeing story. It's almost as if someone appointed Baghdad Bob to head the Ministry of Information of Planes that Disappear into Thin Air.

 

[williamlayton]

I think that WE consider all posibilities according to the way WE operate and do our business---here, we would know what was happening almost immediately.
This is not here---it is, for the most part, a third world operation---not much attention to details, if the person at the radar consol is even competent to understand what is happening.
We don't know ANYTHING, and with the way operation is happening--we may never know anything. Most of these folks have no idea how to conduct an isuue of this magnitude--maybe, not even care. It's gone, let's move on is their apparant attitude.
Blessings

 

[moe smith]

I think that WE consider all posibilities according to the way WE operate and do our business---here, we would know what was happening almost immediately.

Which is why I can't understand why Boeing wouldn't send an official out in front of a mike to either confirm or categorically deny the "engines kept running for 4 hours" story. To remain silent on a development this important, especially when it singles Boeing out as being privy to knowledge of events after the loss of the transponder, only serves to add to the confusion.

 

[Comrad]

I'm thinking they are going into self preservation protect mode. No doubt lawsuits will soon follow, the less said the better at this point. Maybe not the most humanitarian stance but when Corporate profits are at stake, it's the American way. Or at least it's sadly become the American way.

 

[arjay]

Im wondering if it was shot down and Malaysia is just buying time.

 

[cmort666]

I consider this the most likely scenario:

1. The pilot (with a past history of doing this) maintains virtually NO cockpit security.
2. Uighurs (Chinese Muslims from Xinxiang) hijack the plane, with the likely intention of crashing it into something in Beijing.
3. The Chinese figure out what is going on and track the plane into China.
4. The Chinese shoot the plane down, either with a SAM or AAM.
5. The plane goes down in the middle of nowhere, with no survivors.
6. The Chinese calculate that the best outcome for them is for this to remain a "great mystery of the air". This avoids friction with Malaysia, deprives the Uighurs of tactical intelligence, and avoids embarrassment for the CCP leadership.
7. The Chinese are COMPLETELY in control of the flow of information:
   • Nobody in the Chinese military is going to talk.
   • The likely crash site(s) is (are) likely to be so remote and scattered that even if somebody saw the wreckage come down, they wouldn't know what it was and will either believe whatever they're told, or pretend to in order to avoid serious trouble of the irreversible kind.
   • The Chinese have already pointed to "wreckage" off the coast of Vietnam. This would be a convenient misdirection from the actual course and final resting place of the aircraft.

Anybody who thinks this is impossible ought to look into the death of Lin Piao. The ONLY way SOME of the truth came to light was that HIS plane ended up outside of Chinese territory, and in fact, on the territory of a client state of their Soviet enemies.

Lin Piao

 

[feralmerril]

cmort666, I dont know if your right or wrong, but you do qualify to write a good book!

 

[Comrad]

Colonel Mustard did it with the candlestick in the library.

 

[Autococker07]

You know, that is a GREAT theory that I had not even considered before!!!!

 

[cmort666]

I discussed this for the past few days with a friend who was floating the possibility that it had been hijacked, and flown to Cambodia or Laos, which I thought and still think ridiculous.

Then I floated Pakistan, which made more sense, since the country's entire intelligence apparatus is in league with the Taliban, if not Al Qaeda itself. He countered with Iran, which made little sense to me, and provided almost no benefit to the mullahs.

Then it occurred to me that suggestions for a destination (or target) besides China were so obtuse and convoluted that they made little sense.

I noted:

1. the plane's destination.
2. the nationality of many of the passengers.
3. the sleight of hand with the passports.
4. the past gross irresponsibility of the pilot.
5. the party with the biggest axe to grind, both with the passengers and the country of destination.
6. the recent terrorist attack in China.
7. the utter disdain of Chinese authorities for both human life and the truth, combined with their pathological aversion to embarrassment.

I can't say that IS what happened.

I CAN say that of all of the theories I've heard so far, it's the most logically consistent with the few known facts.

If it WAS the Chinese preventing a Uighur terrorist attack, the odds are we won't know for years, if not DECADES... if we ever know AT ALL.

 

[timn8er]

There might be a few people on this Forum that know of my tendency to make(or try to make)just about any thread a laughing matter. Its a "free" world, follow your own conscience, but I don't believe this thread deserves jokes & witticisms.

 

[cmort666]

Colonel Mustard did it with the candlestick in the library.

More like "Colonel HOT Mustard" of the People's Liberation Army Air Force...

 

[Nevada Ed]

No "May Day" is what gets me....................

Nothing but silence...............

and no floating materials of any type to be found as yet............

Hard to sneak a jumbo jet into a landing strip without a person or two seeing it......... even if just to re-fuel.

 

[moe smith]

cmort666, I dont know if your right or wrong, but you do qualify to write a good book!

Except there'd have to be survivors and a happy ending. Guy (Harrison Ford) meets girl (Ann Hathaway) in airport, accidentally spills coffee on her $500 dress. She berates him over the incident and storms off in a huff. At the gate they find out they're on the same flight and as they board find themselves sitting next to each other. The tension is high and words are exchanged until the flight attendant reseats him in a different section of the plane. Plane is hijacked, he leads the charge to take back control but plane crashes, leaving him and her as the only survivors, in the Chinese jungle. They fight off deadly snakes, tigers, and an irritating Hari Krishna in their quest to make it to civilization. Suddenly war breaks out between Russia and China and they are both captured by the Russian troops and sent to a prison in Siberia. After 16 years of hard labor they find themselves reunited again when an asteroid hits the main gate of the institution and they escape through a smoldering hole to freedom. The book ends with them jogging into the sunset as he asks "So, that dress was really 500 bucks?" and she replies "No, I lied, I picked it up for 50 at Target". Of course in the movie version at this point the screenplay instructions cue credits, music, and fade to black.

 

[cmort666]

No "May Day" is what gets me....................

Nothing but silence...............

and no floating materials of any type to be found as yet............

Hard to sneak a jumbo jet into a landing strip without a person or two seeing it......... even if just to re-fuel.

• If you leave the cockpit door open and somebody walks in and slits your throat, you won't be sending too many messages.
• If somebody shoots the plane down over mountainous LAND, there won't BE any "floating materials".
• If nobody on the plane survives, and everybody else involved is under military discipline or the surveillance of the organs of state security in the middle of nowhere, it's pretty easy to keep things a secret.