I think a lot of the knock on the 158 RNL is propaganda put out by the ammunition companies in order to sell us more expensive hollowpoint ammunition. They are continually getting us to jump through hoops. Look what is happening with the 40/9mm. All of a sudden the 40 is not required and you've just got to buy the super-duper 9mm ammuntion. It's happening with the guns too. You can't get much selling a 40 today. I bet in a few years the situation will reverse. So it goes.
Yes and no.
First the "no":
The standard pressure .38 Special 158 gr RN load has been considered questionable for self defense for a long time. General Julian Hatcher developed a rating for stopping power in the 1930s.
The Formula was:
RSP = MB * A * F *1000
where
RSP = Relative Stopping Power Index
MB = Momentum of the bullet in pound feet - (WB/450240) * V
A = Area of the bullet in square inches
F = Form factor (derived from the list below)
Form Factor:
Fully Jacketed Round Nose = 0.9
Lead Round Nose = 1.0
Lead Flat Point (small meplat) = 1.05
Lead flat point (large meplat) = 1.1
Lead Semi-wadcutter (Kieth types) and hollow points = 1.25
Hatcher didn't consider hollow points separately at the time as they didn't expand well at pistol velocities in the 1930s, so they were counted in with the Kieth type semi wad cutters, but a value of 1.35 has been assigned since then.
The classic .45 ACP 230 gr FMJ RN at 830 fps scored a hatcher rating of 62.
The .357 Magnum with a 158 gr LSWC at 1,450 fps out of 4" revolver will score 64.
A .357 Magnum with a 125 gr hollow point at 1300 fps in a 2.5" revolver scores 49.
The .38+ P with a 158 gr LSWCHP at 890 fps out of a 4" revolver scores 39 (using the old 1.25 value) or 43 (using the newer 1.35 value).
The original military 9mm LUger with a 124 gr FMJ RN at 1200 fps scores a 29.
In contrast, the standard pressure .38 Special with a 158 gr LRN at 755 fps will produce a Hatcher rating of just 26.
That's only a single point higher than the Army issue .38 Colt with a 148 gr bullet at 750 fps (a Hatcher rating of 25), the load that was considered ineffective in the Philippines.
In terms of scaling, a round had to score a 25 to be considered minimally effective, and a score of 50 or higher was considered to be very desirable.
The .38 Special with a 158 gr LSWC at the same 755 fps increases the score to a more respectable 33.
The .38 special target load with a 148 gr wad cutter at 710 fps scores a 29. In short, it's hard to do worse than the 158 gr .38 LRN on the Hatcher with a .38 Special
Hatcher based his results on testing conducted with live cattle, live goats, and human cadavers, something that would be frowned upon today.
My point here isn't to argue the validity of the Hatcher rating for stopping power purposes but rather to underscore the point that even in the 1930s, the 158 gr LRN load was considered to be pretty anemic, and that the using a LSWC, and/or a larger diameter bullet, and/or more velocity were all considered prudent at the time.
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Next the "yes":
I agree with you that there is way too much advertising and internet expert pressure to use a super super high performance bullet. And it's even less relevant for some cartridges than others.
The 9mm has become a very effective self defense cartridge due to the development of hollow points that expand reliably. However, the difference between a 124 gr Hornady XTP at 1110 fps that expands to about 1.5x its original diameter and one of the higher end premium bullets that expands to about 1.65x its original diameter (but may penetrate less) isn't worth mentioning.
Bullet placement matters, so it makes sense to buy a middle of the round that still expands reliably, but that you can afford to shoot twice as often.
In the .357 Magnum, it's difficult to find a JHP or JSP load that doesn't perform acceptably well.
