The Guy From Federal Again

[waffles]

Except that everyone on all the gun forums says they've known forever that there are up and down cycles, and they all buy ammo based on those cycles. Why wouldn't a CEO know that, too? (Unless the gun forum gurus are full of BS) So you spend two years building a factory, during which ammo demand falls, and when the production line is ready to start up, there's another panic and demand climbs again. In WWII car makers switched to building airplanes in an amazingly short time, built them for four years, then went back to building cars. This is America, we can do it. We're not the land of "it can't be done."

Hey I'd love cheap ammo again but using the American war economy from WW2 as an example of how they could totally expand manufacturing now is a bit out there. They've got a fairly decent idea of what they're doing, as they have through the other panics, and as much as im sure they'd love massive government funding to expand and support our hobbies I'm not seeing that happening.

 

[remoteforest]

I've seen several mentions of foreign ammo manufacturers worried about the laws changing here and their wares not being able to be shipped here. I'm sure the pandemic and other issues are also hampering companies like Sellier & Bellot, Geco, Prvi Partisan, and others. The only foreign-made ammo I've seen on shelves besides Aguila (Mexico) is Academy's house brand, Monarch. It's made by someone in Serbia.


This will pass in time, how long no one knows.

 

[sigp220.45]

That is the thing, they haven't at Academy or Walmart when they get them in. The 50 round of 22lr at Academy was 4.49. I think the target 9mm was around $14. The 100 round CCI Mini-mag at Walmart was 7.99.

So either Academy and Walmart are taking a loss or the other businesses and or wholesalers are getting rich.

Rosewood

That's my take away from this madness. After years of "support your local mom & pop gunstore" it turns out they are the worst gougers of all. They have ammo because not all of us are stupid enough to pay $1.25 a round for 9mm ball.

The big boxes, hated by all, are out because they are still charging normal prices and it gets gobbled up instantly by all the bed-wetters, hand-wringers, and ammo flippers.

So "hear-hear" for Cabelas, Walmart, Sportsmans, Bass Pro, and Academy. When this silliness is over, I'll remember.

 

[GypsmJim]

Not everyone knew it was coming... There's plenty of people who stocked up while stuff was dirt cheap, but just as many if not more keep a few boxes on hand and buy as needed.

You're right...not everyone.

If a person watches the 6:00 news and believes what they tell you, then YOU are the one.

If you were a hunter / sportsman / person with half a brain it would have been 100% obvious what was in store.

Last Spring I was watching the news and someone said pandemic. The light bulb went on. The next day I took my beer money, my credit card 100% payment and the wife's birthday present money and I "invested" in .22s, powder and primers.

Turns out if I sell now I could fund the rest of my retirement. Instead I think I'll just shoot it all up...

 

[ggibson511960]

The video was a nicely done PSA, but as he said, he's not going to get into numbers. I's his right to keep commercial information private. The CCI/Blount/Federal/Remington consortium is a private company with no obligation to disclose anything. That said, this organization will pay a price for lack of supply. They are the dominant supplier, but their market share will surely slip when disgruntled customers discover other sources. The mass market ammunition market is not very competitive. It needs to be. There are a few statements he could have made without disclosing corporate privileged information, to wit: Are they observing existing wholesale purchase contracts and not selling directly to new speculators? Are they doing anything to make their production rates scalable? Everyone recognizes that you can't build an entirely new factory in days, but you can certainly stockpile raw materials and products to smooth out disruptions. Every successful business in America knows how to scale their business. The only alternative to this flexibility is some kind of anti-competitive market regulation that protects supplier from volume swings and encroachment of competitors. One of the usual sources of extra supply is foreign sources. Wouldn't it be wonderful if European and Asian suppliers were able to jump into this market with more responsive flexibility.

 

[glenwolde]

Except that everyone on all the gun forums says they've known forever that there are up and down cycles, and they all buy ammo based on those cycles. Why wouldn't a CEO know that, too? (Unless the gun forum gurus are full of BS) So you spend two years building a factory, during which ammo demand falls, and when the production line is ready to start up, there's another panic and demand climbs again. In WWII car makers switched to building airplanes in an amazingly short time, built them for four years, then went back to building cars. This is America, we can do it. We're not the land of "it can't be done."


You, me, and plenty of others were buying during a lull in ammo sales. It wasn't a market crash, just a "normal" time.

News Flash: Gun Forum Gurus are full of BS. They build a factory, maybe there's another panic, maybe not. It's not the CEO's job to "know" what's going to happen. It's his job to maximize profit and ensure survival no matter what happens.

I'm sure if the Federal Government invoked the Defense Production Act to protect the ammunition manufacturers from loss then they would make it happen. Otherwise these private companies are going to make decisions that are most likely to maximize profit while protecting them from the downside.

 

[Dfish1247]

Bad part about stockpiles of raw materials, paying taxes on them every year while they sit or be rotated. That ain't very profitable.

As far as gougers, the people paying it are the problem, not the person selling it. That anaconda you found for $500 because someone lost their job and needed money now, are you going to resell it for $550 or $2000, my guess is $2000 and it'll sell quickly, that's capitalism, capitalize on an opportunity.

Factories are living their dream right now, running all out and inventory is flying out the door, money rolling in nonstop, getting best bang for their buck on employees as they are producing instead of sweeping the floor or some other busy work. And don't think a few of those employees aren't stashing overtime money away. Win win right now for them.

There's the soapbox spill,lol. This panic will pass like the others, it'll pass like a kidney stone, but it'll pass. When it does, load up over a couple years, if you shoot 100, buy 500-1000, whatever you can afford. Same way retirement accounts work, little bit over a long time adds up.

 

[Tytan01]

Judging by my LGS and every online source I can find, they're failing abysmally.

They ain't failing. They are purposely sandbagging.

9MM and .380 shortages could of been explained by the " 7 million new gun buyers " excuse because those make up the bulk of the new guns sold in 2020 but EVERYTHING being wiped out for an entire year cannot be explained away like how "The Jason's" are trying to.

Eventually the truth is gonna come out either by threat of lawsuit or by a disgruntled employee spilling the beans but the truth about why ammo makers withheld production in 2020 will come out and a lot of people here sucking up to "The Jason's" are going to be looking pretty silly.

 

[Gamecock]

They ain't failing. They are purposely sandbagging.

9MM and .380 shortages could of been explained by the " 7 million new gun buyers " excuse because those make up the bulk of the new guns sold in 2020 but EVERYTHING being wiped out for an entire year cannot be explained away like how "The Jason's" are trying to.

Eventually the truth is gonna come out either by threat of lawsuit or by a disgruntled employee spilling the beans but the truth about why ammo makers withheld production in 2020 will come out and a lot of people here sucking up to "The Jason's" are going to be looking pretty silly.

I hadn't thought of that possibility. Obviously, the "you can't buy any because you are buying too much" excuse is dumb, but it is working on some.

Your "they aren't making as much" theory does fit with the sharp curtailment in deliveries, AND with the broad spectrum of the shortage. It also fits with Vanderbrink's incurious assertions.

Vanderbrink feels no duty to investigate what is happening. If he is making way less, he KNOWS what is going on already, so he doesn't need to investigate, he already knows.

Again, his making LESS would fit.

I don't know what's happening; I don't know the cause of the shortage. But his failure to investigate invites conspiracy theories.

 

[Jon651]

They ain't failing. They are purposely sandbagging.

9MM and .380 shortages could of been explained by the " 7 million new gun buyers " excuse because those make up the bulk of the new guns sold in 2020 but EVERYTHING being wiped out for an entire year cannot be explained away like how "The Jason's" are trying to.

Eventually the truth is gonna come out either by threat of lawsuit or by a disgruntled employee spilling the beans but the truth about why ammo makers withheld production in 2020 will come out and a lot of people here sucking up to "The Jason's" are going to be looking pretty silly.

Baseless assertions without proof - this is exactly how conspiracy theories start.

Think about it - if all ammo uses the exact same raw materials then it only makes sense that if they are producing a lot more of the more popular calibers then the availability of remaining calibers would be reduced.

Plus each manufacturer has produced more last year than in any other single year on record not during a declared war. These numbers are dutifully reported because no investor or bank would ever think to provide a company with funding if they weren't.

There is nothing happening here that can't be explained by simply reviewing your roommate's notes from your freshman year Economics 101 class in college.

 

[Gamecock]

Baseless assertions without proof - this is exactly how conspiracy theories start.

Exactly backwards. Conspiracy theories arise in an environment of insufficient information. Vandercreep provides no information, stimulating conspiracy theories.

Think about it - if all ammo uses the exact same raw materials then it only makes sense that if they are producing a lot more of the more popular calibers then the availability of remaining calibers would be reduced.

You have no such information. Vandercreep et al are not releasing production figures.

Plus each manufacturer has produced more last year than in any other single year on record not during a declared war.

[citation needed]

Links to these alleged production reports, please.

These numbers are dutifully reported because no investor or bank would ever think to provide a company with funding if they weren't.

Not how companies work. Ammo production numbers to a bank makes me smile.

There is nothing happening here that can't be explained by simply reviewing your roommate's notes from your freshman year Economics 101 class in college.

I'll bite. I checked my notes and can't find it. There is a shortage of ammunition. Manufacturers claim they are making more. Econ 101 can't square that.

 

[sigp220.45]

No conspiracy here. People are buying ammo before it can hit the shelf. Normally it would sit there for a while, maybe even until more hit the shelf.

We have many members on this very forum who have posted they have a multi-year supply of ammo, yet they still buy the limit if they see it on the shelf.

The great down fall to all conspiracy theories is WHY. Why would a company in the ammo making business not crank out every single round they could make in this crazy market?

The answer: They are.

People are scared and frustrated. My brother just paid $280 for 120 rounds of 12 gauge buckshot. Its chump change to him (and a lot of others).

As long as fear dominates rational thought this will go on. Remember when the same kind of madness made .22 ammo unavailable? People lost their minds thinking the one kind of ammo that will never go away would go away. Did it?

I've learned its never worth it to argue about conspiracies. Every bit of pro-conspiracy info is 100% reliable, while every bit of contrary evidence somehow also proof of the conspiracy.

Relax. This has happened before. It will happen again. In two years the pendulum will begin its inexorable swing the other direction.

 

[transit]

...Relax. This has happened before. It will happen again. In two years the pendulum will begin its inexorable swing the other direction.

Sir.

What is happening in this "country" now is the same as what's happened before?

Ever.

Just asking.

 

[sigp220.45]

Sir.

What is happening in this "country" now is the same as what's happened before?

Ever.

Just asking.

Senseless ammo panic buying.

 

[GypsmJim]

This all IS a conspiracy. I'm just not sure who's doing the conspiring.

There is a transportation problem. Lots of other things go by air - many fewer planes are flying. Truck shipments are down as well. The USPS is being bashed right and left. Look at the many complaining threads on this very forum.

When I go to Walmart the ammo shelves are bare. But the paint shelves are sparse as well. Look at the pharmacy shelves. Sometimes I have to travel to 3 different drug stores to get OTC meds. My prescription meds are ALWAYS late a few days because they are not in stock on the day I need them.

I went to West marine the other day. It looked like their inventory was about half of normal. I asked the manager if the store was closing and he said no! They just can't get shipments in, even though they order everything as necessary. I wonder if the guys that manufacture outboard motor oil and boat trailer tires and wheel bearing grease are holding back production too!!

Stores that get ammo get periodic shipments. The stock goes on the shelf. The shelves are always stocked. Now, within a few hours that single shipment is gone.

Don't blame those of us that have a stockpile. We were proactive and bought before there was panic. And now we are not buying any more so that others have a chance. If nobody bought any ammo for the next 6 months, the shelves would be full again.

 

[Green Frog]

They ain't failing. They are purposely sandbagging.

9MM and .380 shortages could of been explained by the " 7 million new gun buyers " excuse because those make up the bulk of the new guns sold in 2020 but EVERYTHING being wiped out for an entire year cannot be explained away like how "The Jason's" are trying to.

Eventually the truth is gonna come out either by threat of lawsuit or by a disgruntled employee spilling the beans but the truth about why ammo makers withheld production in 2020 will come out and a lot of people here sucking up to "The Jason's" are going to be looking pretty silly.

Let's see... 7,000,000 new gun buyers times 2 boxes (100 rounds) each of ammo minimum yields a new demand on the system for an additional 700,000,000 rounds of ammo if you assume that the existing customers continue buying at their pre-panic rates. Seven Hundred Million rounds of additional ammunition demand. What industry can absorb that kind of sudden increase in the midst of all the rest of the complications going on these days? For that matter, how much ammunition was produced during our various wartime years? I remember from history that ammo was rationed or nearly unavailable to civilians during WW II.

Just something to think about.
Green Frog

 

[Green Frog]

I just did a little search, and through the war years (WW II) the total production of small arms ammo with the full help and encouragement of the US Government was about 1.1 Billion rounds per year, which would be about the equivalent of what is being demanded of the industry right now for civilian use (with the new load of 700 Million.) Remember too that the US industries took many months to ramp up to this... with full cooperation and assistance from the government. Remember, the financial "industry" has recently tried to put the squeeze on US manufacturers of all things related to firearms.

Froggie

 

[Dave Lively]

Don't blame those of us that have a stockpile. We were proactive and bought before there was panic. And now we are not buying any more so that others have a chance.

I wish I could say my not buying ammo was that altruistic. And I do think leaving ammo for those that really need it is the right thing to do. But not wanting to pay 3 times as much as it should cost has a lot more to do with my not buying ammo right now.

 

[GypsmJim]

I wish I could say my not buying ammo was that altruistic. And I do think leaving ammo for those that really need it is the right thing to do. But not wanting to pay 3 times as much as it should cost has a lot more to do with my not buying ammo right now.

Everybody is blaming somebody these days. Additionally, there are rumors / suppositions / fears that huge taxes will eventually be imposed, and that infamous word "banned" comes up from time to time. If we all believed those tales maybe then we WOULD be willing to pay the high price.

 

[shocker]

I just did a little search, and through the war years (WW II) the total production of small arms ammo with the full help and encouragement of the US Government was about 1.1 Billion rounds per year,

Last time I researched this the number was 25 billion rounds produced 1942-1945.