The Russians have gone in

[venomballistics]

Putin doesn't care how many Russians die.

Especially those in the Wagner group.
Many are inmates from the Russian prison system given a chance to put their violent behavior to good use.
If they claim victories ... It's a win for the Russian state... If they get greased, it's a liability removed for the Russian state.

 

[biku324]

And they only get paid at the end of the mission (if alive). They make $4k US monthly, roughly 6x the average Russian's salary.

 

[venomballistics]

And they only get paid at the end of the mission (if alive). They make $4k US monthly, roughly 6x the average Russian's salary.

See how much money Ukraine just saved Putin

 

[Onomea]

The Ukrainians have hit a Russian ammo depot in Crimea. Presumably their special forces again: Crimea: Russia blames sabotage as blasts rock another military facility. - CNN

 

[BSA1]

Especially those in the Wagner group.
Many are inmates from the Russian prison system given a chance to put their violent behavior to good use.
If they claim victories ... It's a win for the Russian state... If they get greased, it's a liability removed for the Russian state.

I believe the 14th Army Group occupies Kherson. If Kherson is effectively cut off by land and surrounded and onset of winter it will be a repeat of Stalingrad only Stalin didn’t have to worry about explaining causalities in The Great Patriotic War to the people. The question will be how many soldiers Putin is willing to commit to the meat grinder.

It is not just the Army that is at risk but his Navy also. The Navy will have to put warships close to coast to support the Army putting it’s ships within range of Ukrainian missiles.

Will Putin allow the surrender of a entire Army Group or hold out for a Spring Offensive regardless of losses to the Army and Navy?

 

[Protocall_Design]

After a winter of this going on, there may not be enough Army or Navy left to Spring an offensive...

 

[LVSteve]

I believe the 14th Army Group occupies Kherson. If Kherson is effectively cut off by land and surrounded and onset of winter it will be a repeat of Stalingrad only Stalin didn’t have to worry about explaining causalities in The Great Patriotic War to the people. The question will be how many soldiers Putin is willing to commit to the meat grinder.

It is not just the Army that is at risk but his Navy also. The Navy will have to put warships close to coast to support the Army putting it’s ships within range of Ukrainian missiles.

Will Putin allow the surrender of a entire Army Group or hold out for a Spring Offensive regardless of losses to the Army and Navy?

The last pictures I saw online showed that you could walk across one of the bridges, but forget heavy equipment. The Russians my be forced to do a Dunkirk, withdrawal while leaving most of their equipment behind, or destroying it all before they leave.

This is the perfect cue for an ill advised "not one step back" order from the Kremlin. Time will tell.

 

[bigwheelzip]

The question will be how many soldiers Putin is willing to commit to the meat grinder.

Not to mention losses to their senior officer corp. It seems the Ukrainians have identified over a hundred senior Russian officers killed in action.

Ukraine shot down one of Russia's premier attack helicopters in April, but it fell in no-man's-land between the front lines. Only with Ukraine's recent advances did they gain access to the crash site. The wreckage contained the remains of Russia's top attack helicopter pilot, who led last year's Victory Day Parade in Moscow, Colonel Vasiliy Kleshchenko.

"Ukraine Army eliminates Russia’s best helicopter pilot" Ukraine Army eliminates Russia’s best helicopter pilot

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[venomballistics]

Southern front still looks like a setup with at least an option for Crimea.
If it is to be, we'll know by Spring.
If they make it through, I expect a Ukrainian military buildup the likes of which never before seen in history.

 

[UncleEd]

Reading AP reports, I'd say the most
important military assistance the West,
i.e. NATO, is giving the Ukrainians is
intensive infantry training.

Stories indicate the training centers a
lot on urban fighting. The Brits are
impressed by the motivation shown
by the Ukrainians who have trained
in Britain.

Not only British but other NATO trainers
have been working with the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian recruits apparently
number in the thousands.

Considering how "untrained" Russian
soldiers seem to be, it's quite a
contrast.

 

[venomballistics]

Considering how "untrained" Russian
soldiers seem to be, it's quite a
contrast.

It's not a great place for a generalization.
Sure, we have been made well aware of the Russian canon fodder, but those who took the vast swath of territory along the Northern, Eastern and Southern rim knew, and continue to know what they are doing.

Seems to me to be a bit of a large scale game of Russian Roulette. Pick a path through and see if you have canon fodder or professionals.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Maybe more careless smokers in Crimea??

Another Russian ammo dump, well behind front lines in Maiskoye, Crimea, exploded today.

Russia is attributing this and the recent airfield attack there, to actions of sabotage.

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[UncleEd]

In the eastern and southern fronts,
artillery, namely vast amounts of
Russian artillery, ruled. That
advantage has lessened greatly
with the advance of artillery and
supplies to the Ukraine forces.

Hence the recent slow to no
progress by the Russians on
those fronts. Of course, they
are probing for a weak spot
in Ukrainian defenses.

 

[venomballistics]

In the eastern and southern fronts,
artillery, namely vast amounts of
Russian artillery, ruled. That
advantage has lessened greatly
with the advance of artillery and
supplies to the Ukraine forces.

Hence the recent slow to no
progress by the Russians on
those fronts. Of course, they
are probing for a weak spot
in Ukrainian defenses.

There's a strong pocket around Donetsk that picked up some yardage.
Their star players are still on the field.

 

[venomballistics]

Maybe more careless smokers in Crimea??

Another Russian ammo dump, well behind front lines in Maiskoye, Crimea, exploded today.

Russia is attributing this and the recent airfield attack there, to actions of sabotage.

Sent from my motorola one 5G using Tapatalk

Anyone going to send marshmallows?

 

[bigwheelzip]

While Ukraine is not yet proficient in large scale combined-arms offensive maneuvers, they've been developing western-style special forces for 8 years, so maybe they did infiltrate Crimea and cause the recent trouble.

Since 2014, the US special-operations community — primarily Green Berets  from the Army's 10th Special Forces Group —  has led a multinational effort  to train Ukrainians.

"Attacks Behind Russian Lines Hint at Ukrainian Use of US Training" Attacks Behind Russian Lines Hint at Ukrainian Use of US Training

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[venomballistics]

Might be relatively easy to go larping to Crimea for now. Russia is currently concentrated on the Eastern front with hit and miss advances.
Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to be getting the hang of the covert ops gig with a few more hits around Kursk

 

[Beemerguy53]

Looks like Putin Ukraine venture is going to be “ A Bridge To Far”……

I think it was "a bridge too far" the moment he attacked Ukraine. Even in a worse case scenario -- let's say, for the sake of argument, that in that first month he successfully decapitated the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime -- he would have to fight a determined and strong insurgency every hour he occupied the country.

His little adventure was doomed from the start, and still is. The only real question at this point is how much blood will have to be spilled before he realizes he cannot win?

 

[Rudi]

I wonder what the average Russian on the street thinks of this mess.

 

[LVSteve]

I wonder what the average Russian on the street thinks of this mess.

Not much. It's not like the average Russian actually knows there's a mess.