The Russians have gone in

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The obvious way out of the carnage is for Zelensky to accept the inevitable and negotiate the best deal he can get. Hopefully he can survive this mess to live out his life elsewhere. Pouring more money and equipment into Ukraine only prolongs the loss of innocent lives and the destruction of property. Putin is going to win, like it or not.
That's certainly what the Vichy French and Quislings thought in 1940.
 
I am far for being a scholar but I only
see a couple ways out of this mess.

Russia withdraws........unlikely.
Putin is overthrown......maybe/hopefully

Last......WWIII is just days away.

I see a considerably more depressing scenario as more likely than your three:

Russia manages to establish some sort of control over chunks of Ukraine. They probably take Kyiv, Kharkov, Mariupol, possibly Odessa. But they get bogged down, Zelensky runs the continued Ukrainian government from some unoccupied region. There is a continuing humanitarian disaster and low-level fighting and insurgency, long ineffective negotiations, and a stalemate. Maybe even some UN peacekeepers from Bangladesh to guard lines of demarcation.

The world gets bored. And just like the Donbas has been since 2014, Ukraine festers for years and becomes one of those international problems that defy any tidy solution.

Until Putin really does die. Or gets toppled. And not by another "leader" of the same type.
 
Here's Putin:

[ame]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_BGNNKQ5TM[/ame]

I have no idea if the translation is close what is being said...
 
There's is no more well-documented liar than Putin the Poisoner.

US defence officials also said Saturday that Russian forces are growing increasingly frustrated by the strength of the Ukrainian resistance. Ordinary civilians have joined with Ukrainian forces, making Molotov cocktails, blocking roads and even shooting at the tires of Russian vehicles to impede their progress.

Mr Terras, citing the intelligence report, said the Russian military has enough rockets only for three or four days, and with the new sanctions imposed will not be able to replace their depleted weapons. "There are not enough weapons," the intel report said in two different spots.

"If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations," Mr Terras wrote, noting that the war is costing $US20 billion a day. "Because they have no money, weapons, or resources."

According to Mr Terras, Mr Putin was holed up in his "lair in the Urals", and brought Russian oligarchs with him so they couldn't flee the country.

The frustration for Russian troops on the ground could be seen as Ukrainians delighted Saturday in mocking them to their faces, and posting videos of it online.


Putin fumes in his mountain 'lair' as Ukraine proves hard to conquer | news.com.au — Australia's leading news site
 
Small bands of well armed resistance fighters can really put a thorn in Puti's side. Missile warfare changes the situation.
 
...Putin is going to win, like it or not.

I respectfully disagree. Putin might be able eventually to topple President Zelensky and install a puppet government, but he will then have to deal with an insurgency that will last until the Ukrainians once again have a free and independent nation. And that insurgency will be very well-armed, courtesy of the EU and NATO countries.

Putin has a tiger by the tail, whether he realizes it yet or not...
 
You may have missed another very likely option. The Ukrainians continue their resistance regardless the cost. The invasion of Ukrainian becomes the end of Russia as we know it, much the same as the Nazi Germany's invasion of Russia was the beginning of the end for them. Putin's military is a much more inferior military force than Hitler's. Think Stalingrad on a national scale.

Ironically, Putin has made the biggest European military blunder since Hitler attacked the Soviet Union...
 
I see a considerably more depressing scenario as more likely than your three:

Russia manages to establish some sort of control over chunks of Ukraine. They probably take Kyiv, Kharkov, Mariupol, possibly Odessa. But they get bogged down, Zelensky runs the continued Ukrainian government from some unoccupied region. There is a continuing humanitarian disaster and low-level fighting and insurgency, long ineffective negotiations, and a stalemate. Maybe even some UN peacekeepers from Bangladesh to guard lines of demarcation.

The world gets bored. And just like the Donbas has been since 2014, Ukraine festers for years and becomes one of those international problems that defy any tidy solution.

Until Putin really does die. Or gets toppled. And not by another "leader" of the same type.

Yeah, that could happen...but if it does, the sanctions we've imposed will likely stay in place....how long will the Russian people tolerate that?

We're only about two weeks into this, and we've already caused major disruptions in Russia, and mass protests. Putin can't lock everybody up, and those lines at banks and food markets aren't going to get shorter.
 
China isn't liking the world sanctions on an aggressor - as a truly merchantilist society, they want no part of sanctions this exhaustive.

China has lately invested in their "partnership" with Russia because they feared the promised US "pivot to Asia".

Putin has certainly brought that pivot to a screeching halt for now. But China is militarily even further backward than Russia, and depends on its economic reach and influence (the New Silk Road and all that) for soft power projection.

If Putin's actions and the sanctions lead to major disruptions for East-West trade, China just may soon decide it is more advantageous to offer itself as a reasonable alternative to Russia, rather than as Putin's partner.
 
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