The Russians have gone in

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German DW news is reporting anti-Russian sabotage in Belarus. Belarusian railway workers have reportedly cut off all rail connections between their country and Ukraine.
Ukrainian railway chief Olexander Kamyshin thanked Belarusian railway workers for this claimed act of sabotage on Saturday.

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Pay attention, folks. The Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile has a range of 1500 km, 932 miles, at 3800 mph. It was fired either from a MiG 31 (according to the Russians) or a guided missile cruiser in the Black Sea south of Odessa. There was zero tactical reason to hit a non-hardened land target with this weapon.

Hypersonic missiles were originally developed by the PRC as a 'carrier killer' weapon; the USS Harry S. Truman, CVN-75, group is currently in the Adriatic, off Split, Croatia (Shipyards List with Details and Live Maps | Marine Vessel Traffic), 731 miles from the Port of Odessa.

This was Putin's unsubtle message to us that he has missiles we can't counter that can accurately reach the Truman battle group. Fifth Fleet HQ at Manama, Bahrain is out of range from Odessa, but certainly in range from the 16 Russian Navy vessels off Syria or MiG-31 aircraft from Syrian bases. Do recall we 'gave' the Russians our Kobani airbase (363 miles / 585 kilometers / 316 nautical miles from Split) in Syria when we panic-abandoned it in November, 2019 - they had great fun putting social media posts of that online.

Wright and a contingent of civil engineers, security forces and intelligence personnel were deployed temporarily to expand the base to "support every type of airframe across the [Defense Department] spectrum," Wright said. They lived in tents and ate Meals Ready to Eat, known as MREs, for 45 days, he said.

The Kobani airstrip has been modified to support not only C-130s, which are able to land in most difficult environments, but also C-17s, which need a more hardened runway to support their weight, and other aircraft, Thomas said.
US expands air base in northern Syria for use in battle for Raqqa | Stars and Stripes


Great point. I hadn't thought of the strategic importance of it. On the surface it just seems like Putin wanting to show off one of his new toys, which is true, but with a much more sinister subterfuge.

Here's a quote from Fox News contributor and Russia expert Rebekah Koffler on Putin's use of a hypersonic weapon.

"It's a game-changer in the geopolitical realm, not unlike in the military realm, because they're trying to [send a] strategic message," she said. "In my assessment, [Russian President Vladimir Putin] is climbing small steps in the escalation ladder on the trajectory to nuclear warfare."
 
...Putin has been free to threaten unleashing nuclear weapons against any country that provides direct aid to the Ukraine, and has gone as far as threatening to target nuclear missiles on the American southwest. Has anyone been tracking Russia 's ballistic submarines?...

Living in an open society with a free press spoils us; we tend to think that if something momentous is going on, of course we're going to know about it.

I can't even imagine the amount of man-hours and resources Uncle Sam is currently devoting to defending our country from Russian nukes should the need arise. I'm sure our government knows the location of every single Russian submarine...and we probably know who their captains are!

When Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons, and announced that he had put his nuclear forces on a heightened state of alert, recall that we didn't make any such similar public declaration. But I'll bet we are just as ready to drop the hammer as Putin is (or claims to be)…the difference is that we don't feel compelled to tell that to the world.

Right now, I'm certain there are US Government employees in Langley and Arlington, Virginia, and Fort Meade in Maryland, who haven't had a day off in the last month or more...whose spouses and children haven't seen them lately...who are functioning on a little sleep and a lot of coffee...while they work around the clock to protect the USA, gather intelligence, assist the Ukrainians, and try to bring an end to this conflict as quickly as possible. God bless them...
 
This is strictly "I wonder"
posting as in I wonder if
Ukraine has gotten any
rockets such as the Exocet
which is highly effective
against ships. Or could
the Switchblade 600 be
even slightly effective?

Odessa is a prize for Russia
and I wonder if the Ukraine
forces in any way have a
capability to strike at the
Russian navy if it approaches.

Losing tanks are one thing
but even a damaged warship
or two is quite another.

I realize Russia may be just
hoping to take Odessa by
land.
 
Great analysis here of the state of Russia's military, from today's Washington Post....

https://wapo.st/3wr78MG
Per the article, no sign yet of Syrian mercenaries.

Looking elsewhere for updates on the topic, saw where an NGO is saying 40,000 Syrians have signed up. Another source says the Russians are claiming 16,000 Syrian fighters have volunteered to fight in Ukraine on their behalf. Yet another article said that the Ukrainians say several hundred Syrian mercenaries are in Ukraine now...

As I posted a while back, experienced Syrian mercenaries brought in on behalf of Russia worry me. Per news reports, they are being offered much more in pay than they can earn in Syria.
 
Per the article, no sign yet of Syrian mercenaries.

Looking elsewhere for updates on the topic, saw where an NGO is saying 40,000 Syrians have signed up. Another source says the Russians are claiming 16,000 Syrian fighters have volunteered to fight in Ukraine on their behalf. Yet another article said that the Ukrainians say several hundred Syrian mercenaries are in Ukraine now...

As I posted a while back, experienced Syrian mercenaries brought in on behalf of Russia worry me. Per news reports, they are being offered much more in pay than they can earn in Syria.

In any rapidly evolving situation, misinformation abounds. (Recall the way people were sharing and promoting the whole "Ghost of Kyiv" story a couple of weeks ago.)

I think the significance in this story of Syrian -- or other -- foreign fighters isn't the number of them, or whether they're actually present yet on the battlefield; it's the fact that Putin has had to reach out to get others to do his fighting for him.

If I was a US intelligence analyst, or a military planner, I would be viewing the Russian military right now with a mixture of disgust and contempt.
 
This is strictly "I wonder"
posting as in I wonder if
Ukraine has gotten any
rockets such as the Exocet
which is highly effective
against ships. Or could
the Switchblade 600 be
even slightly effective?

Odessa is a prize for Russia
and I wonder if the Ukraine
forces in any way have a
capability to strike at the
Russian navy if it approaches.

Losing tanks are one thing
but even a damaged warship
or two is quite another.

I realize Russia may be just
hoping to take Odessa by
land.

As I understand it, they asked us for Harpoon anti ship missiles back in December. The answer was "no".
 
Not a very believable premise

Great analysis here of the state of Russia's military, from today's Washington Post. I've gifted this column to the Forum...you should be able to open and read it.

https://wapo.st/3wr78MG

Read the article and found it wanting. It sounded more like a quick run through of all the bad things that MIGHT happen, nothing more. And since we civilians have so very few facts to work with, it seems that we just have to wait and see.

My most reputable personal source (a former high U.S. official with considerable background in Europe) tells me he believes Putin is NOT crazy and will not use nukes.

So I'm just waiting for Putin to realize it's time to climb out of the hole he dug himself, declare victory and a cease-fire.

So - As I said, I'm just watching and waiting.
 
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As I understand it, they asked us for Harpoon anti ship missiles back in December. The answer was "no".
The Brits are contracted to supply Ukraine with air and sea launched anti-ship missiles, from just prior to the invasion. Now they need them to be truck mounted instead.
Harpoon missiles and their truck launchers are huge, and probably not practical for the current situation. The smaller Naval Strike Missiles now fielded by our Marines, can be launched from a truck about the size of a Humvee.
I hope the get the capability soon.

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Here's an article on Russian casualties and morale problems. Includes this item:

"...Late last week, Russian news sources reported that Mr. Putin had put two of his top intelligence officials under house arrest. The officials, who run the Fifth Service of Russia's main intelligence service, the FSB, were interrogated for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, according to Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security services expert...."


As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale Becomes an Issue, Officials Say
As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale May Be an Issue - The New York Times
 
Here's an article on Russian casualties and morale problems. Includes this item:

"...Late last week, Russian news sources reported that Mr. Putin had put two of his top intelligence officials under house arrest. The officials, who run the Fifth Service of Russia's main intelligence service, the FSB, were interrogated for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, according to Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security services expert...."

One of the hallmarks of authoritarian dictators everywhere is that nothing is ever their fault, and there is always somebody else to blame...
 
Here's an article on Russian casualties and morale problems....
As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale May Be an Issue - The New York Times

Includes this as well:

"...One recent report focused on low morale among Russian troops and described soldiers just parking their vehicles and walking off into the woods.

The American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, caution that their numbers of Russian troop deaths are inexact, compiled through analysis of the news media, Ukrainian figures (which tend to be high, with the latest at 13,500), Russian figures (which tend to be low, with the latest at 498), satellite imagery and careful perusal of video images of Russian tanks and troops that come under fire..."​

The Ukrainian figure of Russian casualties is, shall we say, "credibly exaggerated".
The Russian one is, "LOL! You HAVE to be joking!!"
 
from The Guardian: Moscow sets 5am deadline for surrender of Mariupol

Russia tells defending forces to lay down arms; Dozens of elderly people in Luhansk region shot, Ukraine human rights ombudsman says
  • Zelenskiy questions Israel's reluctance to sell Ukraine Iron Dome defence system
  • Russia bombed Mariupol art school sheltering 400 people, says Ukraine

Russia tells defending forces to lay down arms; Dozens of elderly people in Luhansk region shot, Ukraine human rights ombudsman says

From Reuters:

"Lay down your arms," Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the director of the Russian National Center for Defense Management, said in a briefing distributed by the defence ministry.

"A terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed," Mizintsev said. "All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol."

Mizintsev said at a briefing today that humanitarian corridors would be opened tomorrow in both the eastern and western directions from Mariupol from 10am Moscow time.

"The Mariupol authorities now have the opportunity to make a choice and go over to the side of the people, otherwise the military tribunal that awaits them is just a little that they deserve for their terrible crimes, which the Russian side is very carefully documenting," he said....​

And from The NYT:

Fears Grow for Mariupol as Russia Appears Stalled Elsewhere

With analysts predicting a bloody stalemate across much of Ukraine, Russian forces were fighting their way into the port city of Mariupol, where officials warned of forced deportations and a strike on another building where hundreds of civilians were sheltering.

LVIV, Ukraine — Firing rockets and bombs from the land, air and — probably for the first time — from warships in the Sea of Azov, Russian forces broadened their bombardment of the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol on Sunday and have forcibly deported thousands of residents, according to city officials and witnesses.

Among the freshly devastated was an art school, where about 400 residents were hiding, according to city officials who claimed it had been bombed by Russian forces targeting civilians. The number of casualties was not known.

Into the fourth week of the Russian assault on the country, the coastal city — a strategic port that would give Russia control over much of Ukraine's southern coast — has increasingly become a grim symbol of Russian frustration that its superior manpower and weaponry have not forced the quick capitulation of the country...​
 
Also from the NYT:

The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to global energy markets. Now the planet is facing a deeper crisis: a shortage of food.

A crucial portion of the world's wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world's fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent.

The upheaval is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.

Now economists, aid organizations and government officials are warning of the repercussions: an increase in world hunger.

The looming disaster is laying bare the consequences of a major war in the modern era of globalization. Prices for food, fertilizer, oil, gas and even metals like aluminum, nickel and palladium are all rising fast — and experts expect worse as the effects cascade.

"Ukraine has only compounded a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe," said David M. Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Program, the United Nations agency that feeds 125 million people a day. "There is no precedent even close to this since World War II."

Ukrainian farms are about to miss critical planting and harvesting seasons. European fertilizer plants are significantly cutting production because of high energy prices. Farmers from Brazil to Texas are cutting back on fertilizer, threatening the size of the next harvests....​
 
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