The Russians have gone in

[oldbrownhat]

Another interesting analysis from our National Post, from various sources.

Russian forces in Ukraine are blasting cities and killing civilians but no longer making progress, intelligence agencies say

Russia bogged down on all fronts as war on Ukraine enters fourth week

 

[Onomea]

A perspective from a Russian dissident:

Opinion | Russians Must Accept the Truth. We Failed. - The New York Times

 

[oldbrownhat]

A perspective from a Russian dissident:

Opinion | Russians Must Accept the Truth. We Failed. - The New York Times

"...The Russians who oppose the war now find themselves in a terrible state. It's not just that we couldn't stop this senseless and illegal war — we can't even protest against it. A law passed on March 4 makes the expression of antiwar sentiment in Russia punishable by up to 15 years in prison. (Already, about 15,000 people have been detained for antiwar actions since the invasion began.) .."​

 

[Onomea]

Another interesting analysis from our National Post, from various sources.

Russian forces in Ukraine are blasting cities and killing civilians but no longer making progress, intelligence agencies say

Russia bogged down on all fronts as war on Ukraine enters fourth week

Per the article, the Ukrainians claim 12,000 Russian soldiers killed in the three weeks of the war. Even if the numbers are inflated, a lot of Russian soldiers have died in short period of time.

In comparison, in 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, less than 7,000 America soldiers were killed.

 

[oldbrownhat]

Per the article, the Ukrainians claim 12,000 Russian soldiers killed in the three weeks of the war. Even if the numbers are inflated, a lot of Russian soldiers have died in short period of time.

In comparison, in 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, less than 7,000 America soldiers were killed.

True. Figures like that - from either side - always have to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt, but even assuming, say, a 25% exaggeration, it's a remarkable (and regrettable) death toll. Russia may not be releasing the figures (or repatriating the bodies, as some sources say) but the truth can't be kept from the soldiers' families.

 

[ladder13]

UN proclamation has not done squat.

 

[ladder13]

It's always been "Peace Through Strength".
The weakness in NATO and it's leaders emboldens the reckless and powerful.
No action while Putin was amassing his army on the border for months signaled weakness.
Arming the Ukraine with modern air defense systems prior to the invasion would make a no fly zone unnecessary and the invaders air superiority and cruise missiles much less effective.

Buying Russian oil and gas is criminal.

 

[UncleEd]

UN proclamation has not done squat.

So what if you mean its vote
doesn't make Russia cower.

But it puts on record that
Russia is a pariah across
much of the world.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and
its allies know it has the
majority of nations behind
them in, if you will, a
crusade to counter Russian
expansionism.

What you seem to be stating
is that only pragmatism has
value. If that's true, totally
true, why maintain any set
of moral standards?

 

[smithman 10]

Could change everything

It's a side note in the news coverage, but a gamer-changer on the way to Ukraine is both counter-battery radar to pinpoint artillery sources, then counter-mortar radar to do the same for motars. This makes stable, massed artillery emplacements impossible to maintain against counter-barrage and drone strikes.

If they can't bombard cities indiscriminately, the Russians would have to use their crummy infantry, which seems to be no match for the Ukrainians. Or their armor, which also seems to be far less effective than expected.

 

[biku324]

Their sexy new T-14 is no match for the NLAWs or Javelins, and their T-90MS is just a conscript cooker to both A-T weapons.

 

[ladder13]

Since everyone likes to make predictions.

Russia gets the "separatist" portions of Ukraine. They get everything on the Black Sea.

The West thinks it's a good thing seeing as they didn't take the whole of Ukraine and wind up with them on the doorstep.

Tens of thousands of Ukrainians get killed. Millions displaced.

Sanctions go away, business returns to Russia, banks, oil purchases, rare earth minerals, Walmart, McDonalds, etc. It's all about $$$$'s, energy and rare earth minerals now anyways. He who has them holds the power.

Russia comes back at some point after resupplying and regrouping, barring the death of Putin and/or someone just as bad, and takes the rest of Ukraine and moves into Europe.

Stop the man now or it will be worse later.

 

[smithman 10]

Read this article but have my doubts

I'm gifting to the thread this thought-provoking column from the New York Times...the author makes a powerful case that what's happening today parallels what happened in the 1930s, as Germany and Japan engaged in a series of aggressive acts which went unchallenged.

From the column: "World War II didn't so much begin as it gathered, like water rising until it breaches a dam. We, too, have been living through years of rising waters, though it took Russia's invasion of Ukraine for much of the world to notice."



I read this column and also dozens of the comments of readers on it. Also glanced at some of he author's previous columns.

Stephens is a hawk. Maybe he's right but some of his points are silly. Like the Russians flying MiGs in Korea against us. No comparison at all to the current situation.

Stephens is just a little too glib for me. I mean, history is ALWAYS a chain of events leading to the present. The author forgot to mention the grossly punitive Treaty of Versailles, which embittered Germany so greatly that it enabled Hitler to come to power. Lots of folks just consider World Wars I and II to be just two wars separated by a 20 year interval.

And while he's at it, why not go back to the 1870 Franco-Prussian War which culminated in the unification of the German states into the German Empire and took Alsace Lorraine away from France, a loss that created a lust for revenge on the part of the French.

BIG grain of salt needed with this Stephens column.

 

[LVSteve]

It's a side note in the news coverage, but a gamer-changer on the way to Ukraine is both counter-battery radar to pinpoint artillery sources, then counter-mortar radar to do the same for motars. This makes stable, massed artillery emplacements impossible to maintain against counter-barrage and drone strikes.

I don't get that. According to other sources the Ukrainian Army was already heavily invested in artillery locating radars before this malarkey started.

 

[oldbrownhat]

Over 400 Companies Have Withdrawn from Russia—But Some Remain
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, March 17, 20221)

1) WITHDRAWAL - Clean Break: companies completely halting Russian engagements (150)

2) SUSPENSION - Keeping Options Open for Return: companies temporarily curtailing operations while keeping return options open (180)

3) SCALING BACK - Reducing Activities: companies scaling back some but not all operations, or delaying investments (80)

4) DIGGING IN - Defying Demands for Exit: companies defying demands for exit/reduction of activities (27)

​

Glad I don't need to do any insulating at the moment as Rockwool (Roxul) is only "scaling back"

 

[biku324]

Stingers have a greater range than I realized. Here's some more info:

"The Stinger missile can hit targets flying as high as 11,500 feet (3,500 meters), and has a range of about 5 miles (8 kilometers). This means that the target is an airplane less than 2 miles (3.21 kilometers) high and it is visible as a shape (rather than a dot), then most likely the Stinger missile can hit it. They are extremely accurate."

How Stinger Missiles Work | HowStuffWorks

I don't get that. According to other sources the Ukrainian Army was already heavily invested in artillery locating radars before this malarkey started.

Dunno. I suspect it might have to do with the models.

 

[ladder13]

Over 400 Companies Have Withdrawn from Russia—But Some Remain
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, March 17, 20221)

1) WITHDRAWAL - Clean Break: companies completely halting Russian engagements (150)

2) SUSPENSION - Keeping Options Open for Return: companies temporarily curtailing operations while keeping return options open (180)

3) SCALING BACK - Reducing Activities: companies scaling back some but not all operations, or delaying investments (80)

4) DIGGING IN - Defying Demands for Exit: companies defying demands for exit/reduction of activities (27)

​

Glad I don't need to do any insulating at the moment as Rockwool (Roxul) is only "scaling back"

Wonder how many dead Ukrainians affect the bottom line.

 

[Beemerguy53]

The press went into a tizzy yesterday when President Biden described Putin as a "war criminal"...something I thought has been pretty evident all along. (I mean, really...if invading a neighbor that has done nothing to harm you, and then attacking that neighbor's unarmed civilian population, isn't a "war crime", then what the heck is?)

Here are two recent papers from the Congressional Research Service on war crimes in general, and the laws of war as applied to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Interesting reading...

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10709


https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10710

 

[Absalom]

I'm gifting to the thread this thought-provoking column from the New York Times...the author makes a powerful case that what's happening today parallels what happened in the 1930s, as Germany and Japan engaged in a series of aggressive acts which went unchallenged.

From the column: "World War II didn't so much begin as it gathered, like water rising until it breaches a dam. We, too, have been living through years of rising waters, though it took Russia's invasion of Ukraine for much of the world to notice."
…….
BIG grain of salt needed with this Stephens column.

You left no link and I can't get behind the paywall, but you make pretty good points and it's clear what the gist of Stephens' argument is. It's also not original to him, I've seen similar, if a bit less broad pictures painted elsewhere.

As sweeping generalizations purporting to show where we didn't learn the lessons of history, they're usually worthless. For every country involved, you have to look at the internal and external political realities that led to decisions being made or not made. Everything is clear with the leisure of hindsight, little is clear but much is happening at the actual moments of decision.

Trying to discern grand schemes in real time also has its pitfalls. I still remember how we all saw the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 as part of the larger Cold War strategy to push south, toward Pakistan and Iran and warm-water ports. Nowadays we know that was all hogwash and the Soviet invasion was a hastily planned Hail-Mary to prevent the Afghan Communist factions from killing each other while Muslim fundamentalists overran the country and destabilized the Soviet Muslim republics.

So all I accept as given right now is that Putin wants to subjugate Ukraine. Since it has always been clear, not just recently, that the Western countries weren't going to fight him over it, he thought he could get away with it, apparently without reflecting upon the fact that there's plenty between going to war and doing nothing. Whatever grand plan he had is definitely out the window.

 

[Xfuzz]

Why in the world would we advise
what type weapons we are sending to Ukraine ?

 

[AJ]

Why in the world would we advise
what type weapons we are sending to Ukraine ?

Probably not a big secret. But it does seem a bit stupid.