The Russians have gone in

[LVSteve]

So shortly after the agreement to ship grain, three Kaliber missiles were used in an attack on Odessa, narrowly missing the grain silos. Saw this comment on Twitter about the way the Russians operate.

Russia's Foreign Policy Modus Operandi:

1) Russia creates problem
2) Russia pretends to seek diplomatic solution for problem
3) Russia's signs agreement
4) Russia immediately violates agreement
5) Russia blames everyone else for its own actions
6) Rinse and Repeat.

 

[Beemerguy53]

Don't discount deliberate disinformation by Russia and friends. It's what they do.

Nothing the Russians say can be taken at face value. They lie openly and brazenly. They lie when the whole world knows what they're saying is a lie. They lie when they can be proven wrong instantly. They lie when they know that you know they're lying.

From the moment they began building up their forces on the border with Ukraine, Putin and his henchmen lied about the reason for those troops being there. They lied about not going in, then when they did, they lied about the reason they went in. They've lied about their deliberate -- and blatant -- attacks on civilians. They've lied about their goals, their reasons for launching this war. They will continue to lie...because that's what they do.

Russians lie for the same reason a dog licks itself: Because they can.

 

[Imissedagain]

Watch the movie Moscow on the Hudson.

An older musical buddy, Mike Rod, taught Williams saxophone etc etc.

Growing up near the UN Village in NYC, got to hear what life was like while fishing, ice skating and having fun at Willow Lake, by older folks from pitiful countries like Russia, Haiti and many other places.

 

[bigwheelzip]

A week has passed, and the battle lines appear stagnant.

That seems to be the case, except in the Kherson Oblast region. This area of the southern front closest to Odessa appears to show gains where Ukraine is punishing Russian forces and retaking land.
Recent reports are that about a thousand Russians in that area are encircled, and Ukrainian long-range fires are targeting river crossings behind Russian lines, hindering movement and resupply.

There have been so many successful HIMARS strikes claimed by Ukraine, I dug into the system to learn a bit about it. It's actually a truck chassis, and the rockets in the launcher box are the stars of the system.

There is a variety of medium-range guided types being supplied so far, but they all have 70km range, 200lb. warheads, and 30' accuracy in common. They can be set to air burst, contact, or delayed detonation. Some have a single warhead with 50lb of HE propelling 160,000 tungsten fragments. Some have from 480 to 610 sub-munitions.

The effects attributed to the rockets, generated several nicknames by our troops. "70km Sniper Rifle", "Steel Rain", "Commanders Shotgun", and because of it's ability to devastate a football field sized area "Grid Square Removal Tool".

The video shows some tests for one of the rockets, including some impressive fragmentation pattern tests.

GMLRS Alternative Warhead Engineer & Manufacturing Development Phase Test & Evaluation - YouTube



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[Greyman50]

You seem to have some faith in
a "strictly military related" site.

That's nice.

Site usually only reports on equipment and hardware. Putin was mentioned in report regarding Ukraine’s use of donated weapons.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Numerous anti-aircraft systems are being added to the capabilities of Ukraine's armed forces. These self-propelled anti-air system from Britain have arrived at the front lines.

High Velocity Missile System - HVM - YouTube

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[biku324]

So shortly after the agreement to ship grain, three Kaliber missiles were used in an attack on Odessa, narrowly missing the grain silos. Saw this comment on Twitter about the way the Russians operate.

Da! Pravada!

 

[LVSteve]

"Grid Square Removal Tool".

Priceless!!!

 

[swsig]

Nothing the Russians say can be taken at face value. They lie openly and brazenly. They lie when the whole world knows what they're saying is a lie. They lie when they can be proven wrong instantly. They lie when they know that you know they're lying....

They will continue to lie...because that's what they do.

And now their pants are on fire.

 

[venomballistics]

That seems to be the case, except in the Kherson Oblast region. This area of the southern front closest to Odessa appears to show gains where Ukraine is punishing Russian forces and retaking land.
Recent reports are that about a thousand Russians in that area are encircled, and Ukrainian long-range fires are targeting river crossings behind Russian lines, hindering movement and resupply.

Seems to be a geography thing.
Ukraine seems to have retaken turf up to the first major water feature along nearly every front.
I'd have to say they need a means of crossing rivers with impunity to resume their momentum.

 

[walkin jack]

They would climb a tree to tell you a lie when they could stand on the ground and tell you the truth.

 

[Onomea]

The video shows some tests for one of the rockets, including some impressive fragmentation pattern tests.

GMLRS Alternative Warhead Engineer & Manufacturing Development Phase Test & Evaluation - YouTube

Whoa! Now THAT is a fearsome weapon.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Seems to be a geography thing.

Ukraine seems to have retaken turf up to the first major water feature along nearly every front.

I'd have to say they need a means of crossing rivers with impunity to resume their momentum.

I'd Imagine for now, the waterways are more help than hindrance. With the types of equipment Ukraine has inbound, they seem increasingly capable of overcoming Russia's forces.

Of course we can't really know for sure what's really going on, but the momentum seems increasingly to favor Ukraine. Daily, the target set that is within their kill box increases in value. The fact that Russian ships pulled back from Sevastopol is indicative of the increasing threat envelope they perceive.



BBC News - Ukraine war: Kyiv's forces moving towards occupied Kherson - Zelensky
Ukraine war: Kyiv'''s forces moving towards occupied Kherson - Zelensky - BBC News

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[OLDSTER]

This has been a great thread from post #1. During the course of the conflict, as posts have reflected personal feelings and opinions ( yours truly included ), the trends seem to go from all positive for the odds of Ukraine winning to sort of just "hoping" Ukraine will hang in there. I may be a victim of news fatigue; but I'm starting to feel more pessimistic about the final outcome. Russia will simply wear Ukraine down. Please, some of you with more technical and historical knowledge convince me that Ukraine will ultimately prevail.

 

[PALADIN85020]

To my mind, it seems to be a matter of motivation. The Russian soldiers are largely conscripts who often didn't even know where they were going or why. Their general officers are being picked off by Ukraine snipers. Their tanks get their turrets blown off way too often with effective individual anti-tank weapons. They are so inept they even shoot down their own planes. They suffer from supply problems with both munitions and personal needs (such as food and water). They lack training, even in the bare basics of infantry strategy and tactics. Their supply lines are long and vulnerable. Their ships have been and will be hit and sunk. I wouldn't give you a nickel for their morale right now; they are in a meat grinder, they know it, and it shows. Their only solace lies in a bottle of cheap vodka.

The Ukrainians know the topography of their country well; they are getting increasingly sophisticated munitions, and they are motivated as hell. They will fight like junkyard dogs to defend and regain their country and they will never quit. Anyone remember Vietnam? Afghanistan? Pretty soon the Russian people will push hard to get out - too many coffins are returning - or not.

John

 

[UncleEd]

Can't escape the possibility
that the NATO democracies
and the U.S. can have sudden
political shifts in attitude and
governments. It wasn't that long
ago the U.S. wasn't a solid
supporter of NATO either.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Can't escape the possibility

that the NATO democracies

and the U.S. can have sudden

political shifts in attitude and

governments. It wasn't that long

ago the U.S. wasn't a solid

supporter of NATO either.

Likewise, Russia may tire of it's situation, and shift attitude ala Gorbachev.


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[venomballistics]

I'd Imagine for now, the waterways are more help than hindrance. With the types of equipment Ukraine has inbound, they seem increasingly capable of overcoming Russia's forces.

Rivers are always a hindrance unless you have a strong airborne element. Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is a very important target for a multitude of reasons. If Ukraine is to regain it's status as a nuclear power, that is an asset they will require to do so. As today becomes the history of tomorrow, If Ukraine remains a part, they'd be damned fools not to.
For today, that asset is on the wrong side of a river.
Thing with rivers we take for granted are their inherently limited number of crossing points. Be it a bridge or a fordable segment, these places are known to both sides. these funnel forces into kill zones. You can bet both sides have arty trained on these areas 24/7. Until they have an adequate airborne contingent, or inland naval supremacy, the price for the greener grass on the other side is prohibitive.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Rivers are always a hindrance unless you have a strong airborne element.

Not when they help keep invaders from advancing.




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[bigwheelzip]

Germany has wanted to supply Ukraine these Gepard anti-aircraft systems, but Switzerland denied export of the ammo to Ukraine. Germany has now contracted a Norwegian company to produce the shells. They will be tested next week, then hopefully operational in Ukraine soon after.

15 days ago there was this news that German was testing new Norwegian manufactured ammo for the self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery Germany wished to provide Ukraine. Today Ukraine announced the arrival of the first Gepard AAA units, with ammo.


"Three Gepard artillery units already in Ukraine Ukraine - Defense Minister Reznikov" Three Gepard artillery units already in Ukraine Ukraine - Defense Minister Reznikov

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