The Russians have gone in

[LVSteve]

You made the claim that Putin "Putin planned a one-week takeover of 43 million people......"

I pointed out that you have no way of knowing what Putin planned.......even if you talked to him I doubt he'd share his plan with you.

I made no such claims, nor would I.

I said we don't know and my guess would be a far more long-term plan.......note the word guess.

Whatever I say is guesswork........just like you.

Right now both sides appear to be losing.......along with the American tax payer (biggest loser of all).

Winners? The weapons manufacturers.

A quick ending would cut our losses, but they are still huge.

And I can't see a quick ending in sight.

Our losses will probably be in the trillions of dollars.

And Putin will probably end up owning the huge Black Sea oil and gas reserves.........a gain of trillions of dollars.

Run those numbers to locate winners and losers.

I guess it's an effect of the information age, instant, 100% verifiable facts are expected. Anything less seems to upset certain folks.

The real world isn't like that when it comes to war because for a variety of reasons, we don't see all the information. However, we can make a best estimate given observations of events by multiple sources and come to a conclusion that has a very high probability of being correct. That Russia carried out an airborne attack on Gostomel airport, very close to Kyiv, is not in doubt. It involved a lot of resources, and a massive amount of risk. Is that what you do to start a grinding campaign in the East? No, it's far more in line with a decapitation strike on the Ukrainian government.

The full details on how that plan went awry are not currently known, and may never be. More reality, not all information is for the likes of us. That said, I think the account given on Wikipedia is pretty fair given the variety of sources used. Battle of Antonov Airport - Wikipedia

It is my opinion that Putin thought, or was advised, that Russia could pull off another Crimea over Ukraine by taking out the government in Kyiv in a matter of days. He, and/or his military, were wrong. It happens.

 

[Onomea]

Some of us might like to read the link in Beemerguy's post 2650, if we've overlooked it earlier, re the role of Russia's Federal Security Service in setting Kremlin expectations:

"...the FSB championed a war plan premised on the idea that a lightning assault on Kyiv would topple the government in a matter of days. Zelensky would be dead, captured or in exile, creating a political vacuum for FSB agents to fill..."

 

[John Patrick]

LOL!

That was a joke, right?

Russia couldn't keep that empire in the past and they sure can't take it again now...........they are having all they can do to carve out a little crescent around the east and south of Ukraine to get the Black Sea oil and gas.

You have contradicted your own position since Russia is only struggling because of US, European and other help going to Ukraine.

 

[venomballistics]

Seems Russia is willing to risk air strikes along the southern front.
I think we can put two and two together about the state of Ukrainian air defenses in the region.

 

[LVSteve]

Seems Russia is willing to risk air strikes along the southern front.
I think we can put two and two together about the state of Ukrainian air defenses in the region.

Link isn't showing.

 

[Der Verminator]

You have contradicted your own position since Russia is only struggling because of US, European and other help going to Ukraine.

I haven't contradicted my position.

I said in my personal assessment at the start of the war that Putin's intent is to carve out a little crescent around the east and south of Ukraine to get the Black Sea oil and gas.

Once he controls all the seaports he controls Ukraine's ability to ship their main products.......thus he controls their economy and he will have access to trillions of dollars in Black Sea energy reserves.

At that point he can take ten years or twenty years or more to assimilate the entire country.

Eastern minds think differently than our Western minds.

We want instant gratification--the Eastern mind thinks in terms of decades instead of years.

That's why many Americans tend to insert their own thoughts of quick takeover into Putin's mind.

But Putin thinks differently. The Russian strategy is to very slowly grind the enemy down by turning his cities into rubble with artillery, even if this takes years.

Note that no Russian cities have been reduced to rubble.

Russia is perpetrating grave damage while Russia itself is almost untouched and life goes on as normal.

Time is on their side...........Ukraine is in total chaos with almost half of their population either displaced within Ukraine or gone to other countries.

AP Interview: Refugee Head Sees Lesson in Ukraine Crisis

Still, with no end to the war in sight, the U.N. refugee agency has said the total number of Ukrainians who have left their homeland at some point could reach more than 8 million by December. There are also currently 6.6 million Ukrainians displaced within the country, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Some 2 million Ukrainians have ended up in Russia, whether they chose to or not. An AP investigation earlier this year revealed many were forced to head there and subjected to human rights abuses along the way. Grandi acknowledged his agency’s access in Russia was limited. Of the 1,500 accommodation sites for Ukrainians in the country, UNHCR teams had only been able to visit nine so far, he said.

 

[bigwheelzip]

The phrase "cannon fodder" springs to mind.

That phrase is used in this BBC article, interviewing the mother of a volunteer who became a casualty. He was 24, had no training, was given a rifle and sent to Ukraine. He was dead within days.

BBC News - Ukraine war: Russia appeals for new recruits for war effort
Ukraine war: Russia appeals for new recruits for war effort - BBC News


Sent from my motorola one 5G using Tapatalk

 

[BSA1]

Seems Russia is willing to risk air strikes along the southern front.
I think we can put two and two together about the state of Ukrainian air defenses in the region.

It shows how desperate the Russians are to hold onto Kherson and their southern flank. Russia has had high losses in aircraft and helicopters. Shoulder and 2 man anti-craft teams are proving to effective and economical. Kherson could well be a Stalingrad for Russia this winter with undersupplied troops with little heat and living in rubble cut off by land with the supplies coming acoss the river by boat under relentless artillery and rocket attacks.

 

[biku324]

I haven't contradicted my position.

I said in my personal assessment at the start of the war that Putin's intent is to carve out a little crescent around the east and south of Ukraine to get the Black Sea oil and gas.

Once he controls all the seaports he controls Ukraine's ability to ship their main products.......thus he controls their economy and he will have access to trillions of dollars in Black Sea energy reserves.

At that point he can take ten years or twenty years or more to assimilate the entire country.

Eastern minds think differently than our Western minds.

We want instant gratification--the Eastern mind thinks in terms of decades instead of years.

That's why many Americans tend to insert their own thoughts of quick takeover into Putin's mind.

But Putin thinks differently. The Russian strategy is to very slowly grind the enemy down by turning his cities into rubble with artillery, even if this takes years.

Note that no Russian cities have been reduced to rubble.

Russia is perpetrating grave damage while Russia itself is almost untouched and life goes on as normal.

Time is on their side...........Ukraine is in total chaos with almost half of their population either displaced within Ukraine or gone to other countries.

AP Interview: Refugee Head Sees Lesson in Ukraine Crisis

And yet Western Ukraine has been safe enough to re-open the US Embassy.

 

[Der Verminator]

And yet Western Ukraine has been safe enough to re-open the US Embassy.

If Ukraine were a safe place I doubt that many millions (close to half of Ukraine's population) would have left their homes with most gone to other countries to find safety.

We would be remiss to note that no Russians are fleeing Russia in a similar fashion.

 

[UncleEd]

If Ukraine were a safe place I doubt that many millions (close to half of Ukraine's population) would have left their homes with most gone to other countries to find safety.

What are their ages and sexes?

What demographic is steadfastly
remaining in Ukraine?

 

[biku324]

If Ukraine were a safe place I doubt that many millions (close to half of Ukraine's population) would have left their homes with most gone to other countries to find safety.

We would be remiss to note that no Russians are fleeing Russia in a similar fashion.

You're no doubt aware Russia has not been invaded?

 

[Der Verminator]

What are their ages and sexes?

What demographic is steadfastly
remaining in Ukraine?

Well, like you, I only know what I hear about from TV news.

Reports say that the elderly tend to stay in Ukraine because they are afraid of the rigors of the travel.

The elderly also tend to RETURN to Ukraine because they cannot find work in their country of refuge like the younger people.

Young men and women without children are expected to stay in Ukraine and fight and it appears that most of them do.

That's about all I know and all I know is what I hear from our own Media........which I know are not entirely trustworthy.

 

[Der Verminator]

You're no doubt aware Russia has not been invaded?

That's exactly the point.

This "war" is very one-sided.

Thank you for underlining it for those who may have missed it.

 

[Rpg]

If Ukraine were a safe place I doubt that many millions (close to half of Ukraine's population) would have left their homes with most gone to other countries to find safety. QUOTE]

Once again, it’s not persuasive to make up numbers.

Ukraine has a population of about 35 million. 2-4 million have been displaced. That’s 10% NOT “close to half of Ukraine’s population “.

Exaggerating by five fold doesn’t support what ever point you’re trying to make.

 

[biku324]

Well, like you, I only know what I hear about from TV news.

Reports say that the elderly tend to stay in Ukraine because they are afraid of the rigors of the travel.

The elderly also tend to RETURN to Ukraine because they cannot find work in their country of refuge like the younger people.

Young men and women without children are expected to stay in Ukraine and fight and it appears that most of them do.

That's about all I know and all I know is what I hear from our own Media........which I know are not entirely trustworthy.

Then bother to find accurate information. It's here:
Search | International Organization for Migration

https://www.iom.int/sites/g/files/t...-response-situation-report-15-august-2022.pdf

As of last week, there were 6.654 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine, 6.394 million refugees or 3rd party nationals from Ukraine in Europe, and 5.545 million self-reported returnees (these went back into Ukraine).

 

[Der Verminator]

141547040]

If Ukraine were a safe place I doubt that many millions (close to half of Ukraine's population) would have left their homes with most gone to other countries to find safety.

Once again, it’s not persuasive to make up numbers.

Ukraine has a population of about 35 million. 2-4 million have been displaced. That’s 10% NOT “close to half of Ukraine’s population “.

Exaggerating by five fold doesn’t support what ever point you’re trying to make.

You seem to be the one who's making up numbers.

I already gave you accurate numbers in post 2705.

Your numbers are wrong.

Ukraine has a population of about 44 million and about 17 million are displaced, with the majority of those now living in foreign countries.

Here's the link again: AP Interview: Refugee Head Sees Lesson in Ukraine Crisis

 

[biku324]

Sigh. 43,528,136 2022 estimate. The CIA Worldfactbook is your friend.

Added: Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3%, Belarusian 0.6%, Moldovan 0.5%, Crimean Tatar 0.5%, Bulgarian 0.4%, Hungarian 0.3%, Romanian 0.3%, Polish 0.3%, Jewish 0.2%, other 1.8% (2001 est.)

 

[Der Verminator]

Sigh. 43,528,136 2022 estimate. The CIA Worldfactbook is your friend.

There are several different totals.

I go with this one. It says 44.13 million.

population ukraine - Google Search

 

[venomballistics]

then this happened .....

Russians placed equipment and ammunition directly in the engine room of the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Multiple vehicles with "Z" markings could be seen

I suppose using it as a shield, rather than a doomsday threat is an improvement.
Frustrating either way