Putin's clear and obvious intent at the start of the war was to remove Zelensky, install a puppet government, and take over Ukraine. Every move he made, from the attack on the Antonov Airport in the very first hours of the war, to the armor convoy moving toward Kyiv in the days that followed, clearly indicated what he wanted to do.
I grant you that the Russian view of warfare is different than ours, but he clearly wasn't interested only in the areas adjacent to the Black Sea until the initial goal of a quick and easy takeover of Ukraine became unreachable.
And I'll grant you that Putin would have been happy to remove Zelensky, but he also knew that with or without Zelensky, Ukraine would fight and pacification would take years.
Putin is right there on site. He knows the area and history.......he knows the Ukes........I sincerely doubt he had any illusions about this being done quickly.
He is in NO hurry. He is not even willing to use his massive air force and air superiority to wage war.
He's invested years and he knows time is on his side.
This coming starvation winter with limited heating, water and electricity will take a huge toll and Putin knows it.
Even more Uke refugees will flee and their pathetic condition will garner worldwide coverage and shock and dismay.
France, Germany and the rest of Europe will experience their own suffering as Russia tightens their supply of natural gas.
Negotiations next June will be done in an entirely different atmosphere.
The U.S. and allies.......SICK of this problem........will be pressuring Zelenski to end the fighting and give Russia the land it has taken in order to stop the suffering.
Zelenski's support at home will be collapsing. The Ukes will not want another winter of pain and death.
Putin will get his crescent of land around the east and south and his rights to the Black Sea oil and gas.
He will also control all ports and thus the sale of Uke grains.
He will agree to a peace settlement and Russia can then use the next ten or twenty years to gradually assimilate Ukraine back into Mother Russia.
This has been my personal assessment, as I said, from the beginning of the war.......indeed, it seemed obvious from the start as the only possible way for this to unfold.
Winners: Russia and the American arms dealers who made huge profits.
Losers: Ukraine and the American taxpayers who funded the insane deluge of American weapons to a lost cause.
