There is something funny going on.

[Kiwi cop]

Back in 2018 gas was around $2.60 in Houston. The most we paid that trip was around $3.50 in Las Vegas.

In 2022 the cheapest I found was just under $3.00 in a small place in Arkansas. The average was around $3.40.

Here at home we are running around $2.65 per litre (NZ $ worth around 60 US cents today) and I am paying a premium (around $2.80/litre) for the 95 octane I have to run (or I void my warranty) on our 2023 MG.

I just wish I could find a gas station anywhere that still had gas at the price in the pic.

(Pic taken at an abandoned Phillips 66 on the Oatman Highway (old Route 66) in AZ).

 

[LVSteve]

I was comparing the yearly average and did make an error. But, 2023 still had a 5% increase in production from the high in 2019
12,930,038 daily average-12,307,666 daily average=622,37 increase in daaily average.
That divided by 12,307,666=.050567

As far as consumption goes in 2018 the US consumed an average of 19,417,000 barrels a day, in 2019 it was 19,424,000 and in 2022 it was 19,140,000 a day, less than 2018 or 2019. The numbers for 2023 do not appear yet, but will probably still be below 2018-19 numbers due to cost. So, demand is actually down. BTW, I know several board men at different refineries and none of them are running at their peak capacity. I just got done with a job at a refinery and am still in touch within the business.

In other words we are producing more, consuming less, yet paying more. Way more than explained by inflation. Take a look at the record profits being posted by the petroleum companies for the cause.

As far as inflation goes. Any one who believes the 8.6 trillion added between 2008 to 2016 and the 7.8 trillion added between 2016 to 2020 have nothing to do with the current inflation is seriously deluding themselves.

You cannot look at US demand and production in isolation and predict prices. Oil is a globally traded commodity, and since 2022 a major producer has been excluded from the market. The price goes up when world supply is perceived as short, as has happened many times before. Throw in the bump in inflation since 2021 and we are where we are.

 

[steelslaver]

I know that. I am pointing out that the problem is not with US crude production as many believe. The middle east oil countries have lots of EASY EXTRACTION light crude and there for control the market. But, the US oil majors capitalizing on the whole situation is part of the high fuel prices in the US.

In the 2018 and 2019 years crude averaged about $65 a barrel, it is currently around $83 and averaged around $75 all of last year. A 33% increase in crude prices does not actually justify a 75% price increase in fuel.

The idea that high fuel prices are because the all powerful "THEY" or the "GOVERNMENT" wants to shove electric cars down our throats is hilarious. Oil companies and petroleum producers control the price of fuel and they are not going to help anybody cut their throat.

 

[sheepdawg]

Not crude oil but hang on for this, I saw an 11.5 oz. soft drink can today. It felt odd and sure enough. Can beer be far behind?

 

[BC38]

Back in 2018 gas was around $2.60 in Houston. The most we paid that trip was around $3.50 in Las Vegas.

In 2022 the cheapest I found was just under $3.00 in a small place in Arkansas. The average was around $3.40.

Here at home we are running around $2.65 per litre (NZ $ worth around 60 US cents today) and I am paying a premium (around $2.80/litre) for the 95 octane I have to run (or I void my warranty) on our 2023 MG.

I just wish I could find a gas station anywhere that still had gas at the price in the pic.

(Pic taken at an abandoned Phillips 66 on the Oatman Highway (old Route 66) in AZ).

LOL, don't we all?!?
When was that pic taken? Early 1970's?

I can (vaguely) remember gas being around $0.69-$0.79 a gallon in the late 1960's or early 1970's before the first OPEC embargo...

 

[BC38]

Not crude oil but hang on for this, I saw an 11.5 oz. soft drink can today. It felt odd and sure enough. Can beer be far behind?

Can you say shrinkflation?
The President can...

 

[rwsmith]

Whaaaaaaaa?

We’re under $3.00 here

Whaaaaaaaaa???

 

[rwsmith]

And I'll bet...

I agree. As I recall he cheated on his income tax as well.

...he re-uses postage stamps.

 

[venomballistics]

I thought about that too, but if the bike had an auto-oiling system (no need to mix oil with the gas directly) cranking the oiler up a little would compensate for alcohol's lack of lubricity (oiliness).

FWIW, some countries (for example Brazil - last time I looked into it) use alcohol almost exclusively for motor fuel. It just requires some simple tuning modifications, especially with fuel injection.

They make their alcohol from plant waste - leftovers from cane and beet sugar production. We could do the same. Corn stalks and cobs, wheat chaff, and any other waste plant matter can be used to make alcohol.

The problem with our use of alcohol is that all of our alcohol producing & distilling facilities are geared towards using GRAIN. Basically turning food into fuel - which jacks up the price of both the FOOD and the FUEL.

Ethanol isn't the only game in town.
There's methanol as well.
Sawdust, grass, any old seed .... even poison ivy.
It doesn't have to be a food source

 

[Shibadog]

The "price"of corn is identical regardless of its utilization - a bushel of corn destined for alcohol production is the same as a bushel of corn headed for a feedlot or a bio-plastics manufacturer. There may be very subtle differences but corn bought on the same day from approximately similar geography all costs the same. Farmers do not make more by selling corn for one utilization versus another. Subsidies for corn-based ethanol production do not go to farmers but rather to ethanol distillers. It's a strange business when those producing do not set the price on any given day for their product.

And if the price of corn falls any further there won't be any. As previously stated the cost of production for corn and soybeans in 2024 is projected to exceed farm income. The average corn/soybean farmer in 2024 will lose money. Agreed if there was less corn it would be worth more but farms disappearing and farmers going out of business has far more consequences than commodity prices.

And yes, Brazil has an ethanol-based fuel economy and it relies on sugarcane as a starter material. Sugarcane beats corn for ethanol yield per ton of dry matter. Remember it's sugar content that mostly determines alcohol yield via fermentation and distillation. Brazil has also invested in the required infrastructure so that ethanol plants are numerous and widely scattered and hence the starting material can be more economically transported.

All "renewable" fuels controversies are, as many of you pointed out, the result of public policy decisions made by elected officials and appointed bureaucrats. They are not, necessarily, based on defensible science or economics.

As best as I remember, the yield on corn is basically 1 for one (takes a gallon of fuel to yield a gallon of ethanol) while sugar cane I believe is 1 to 7 ( a gallon of fuel yields 7 gallons). These numbers were based on amount of fuel used to produce the end product.

 

[CalifEd]

The idea that high fuel prices are because the all powerful "THEY" or the "GOVERNMENT" wants to shove electric cars down our throats is hilarious. Oil companies and petroleum producers control the price of fuel and they are not going to help anybody cut their throat.

I do feel the the Government is heck bound to force us into a mold of their choosing. No natural gas stoves, Air conditioners, diesel trucks and of course EV's.
I would like to know the real reason behind these decision, maybe someone could explain the rationale behind this (the selling of the Gas Reserves) from Reuters:
March 4 (Reuters) - The United States may sell its 1 million barrel Northeast gasoline reserve in fiscal year 2024, according to the draft text of a funding bill released on Sunday.
The reserve, first established in 2014 after Superstorm Sandy left motorists in the northeastern United States without fuel, is located in New York Harbor, New York, Boston, Massachusetts and Portland, Maine.
The proceeds from the sale of the refined products in the reserve would be deposited into the Treasury's general fund, according to the text of the bill, which is likely to pass this week.

 

[Skeet 028]

To let you know...the farmers will continue to grow corn and other crops. They will not stop because the prices will rise to pay the bill. All the poultry growers will want/need corn to keep growing poultry. The price of chicken WILL rise...the price of beef will rise....and we will pay it so we can eat. The only thing that has kept the commodity prices down over the last 40-60 years is the farmers were able to grow larger crops with all the new technology. I think we are about at the limit with crop production per acre. Back yonder when we didn't use food crops to make fuel the price was essentially the same as today figuring inflation...so if we want the lower prices for fuel or food...we will have to make the decisions...food or fuel. EV at least at this time is not the answer to the questions. We have to take the politicians by the horns and make them work for the populace. Remember Soylent Green... it WAS science fiction...then

 

[BLUEDOT37]

I think you missed the "relative to demand" part of my statement.

LOL, you missed the point of my post.

I was only providing facts disputing "reduced production" & "the most the US ever produced was 20 million per day".

Nothing I showed was disputing anything else.

.

 

[BC38]

Brazil was a few years ago anyway making ethanol from cane sugar which gave a substantial yield. They were /are running the economy on neat ethanol.

Exactly.
Shell Proud To Power INDYCAR with 100% Renewable Race Fuel

"second-generation ethanol, derived from the waste portion of sugarcane, is sourced from Brazil. The product is part of a joint venture between Shell and Cosan, with Raízen, Brazil’s second-largest fuel distribution company, playing a critical role as the leading manufacturer of sugarcane ethanol in the country and the largest individual sugar exporter in the world.

Sustainable fuels are possible without any new technology. They just require some investment capitol (independent of government subsidies - which actually undermine TRUE capitalism).

The US already produces sugar from both sugar cane and sugar beets. The waste products from our sugar production COULD be used to produce fuel-grade ethanol. But they aren't. Why not?

Could it be that government subsidies to produce ethanol from grain make it "unprofitable"? Can you say "a government 'managed' economy' - vs true capitalism"?

IMO the question comes down to "if Brazil can do it, why can't we"?

Hopefully asking such questions doesn't cross the line into the forbidden topic of "politics".