Ukraine Flips the Script

[biku324]

It looks like Ukraine intends to hold the parts of Russia seized after attacking across the Russian border just as Russia did to them. Nice to see a biter getting bitten.

It seems like a real invasion that started as an incursion. The seizure of the station controlling the last NG pipeline from Russia to Europe has to sting.

 

[swsig]

Putin claims he wants to acquire Ukrainian land for peace. It looks like he'll now face the humiliating prospect of having to swap Ukrainian land for Russian land to get his "peace". His "special military operation" has failed from Day One, and Ukraine's invasion has now added to that. I would like to think that machinations are now ongoing inside or outside of the Kremlin to remove him from office.

 

[biku324]

Indeed. His plan seems, well, unsound. And the below figures are from December.

WASHINGTON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday.

The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia’s military modernization by 18 years, the source said.

reuters.com

Here's a report from April:

The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.

The actual number of Russian deaths is likely to be much higher.
Our analysis does not include the deaths of militia in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk - in eastern Ukraine. If they were added, the death toll on the Russian side would be even higher.

Russia'''s meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead

 

[UncleEd]

It looks like the continued NATO/U.S. assistance to Ukraine is paying off.

Will Ukraine's successes topple Putin? From what I've read, his replacements could be worse.

The "ace" up Putin's sleeve might well be Belarus. If he can get its dictator to help by opening another combat front, he'll get some breathing room and put more pressure on the West in helping Ukraine.

I believe Putin believes time is on his side and the West will weaken its support of Ukraine. Elements within the Western alliance have never really cared what happens to Ukraine.

 

[pharmer]

Much as I’d like to see Putin gone “transfer of power” won’t be orderly. Naturally, as with anywhere on Earth, the regular folk will pay. Joe

 

[GaryS]

Russia apparently has decided that NATO nations providing assistance to Ukraine are now "fair game" for some sort of attack. Probably not openly, but sabotage of military training and production facilities in nearby countries such as Poland.

While it's nice to see Ukraine punch back, especially after we've been told that they are on the verge of collapse, it might have been smarter to hit and then return to their borders.

Then again, what do I know?

 

[Rudi]

Much as I’d like to see Putin gone “transfer of power” won’t be orderly. Naturally, as with anywhere on Earth, the regular folk will pay. Joe

Puti's personal security must really be something.

 

[Mr. Vito]

Zelensky needs to be careful and not push Putin to use a weapon that Ukraine does not have, and certainly cannot defend against, i.e. tactical atomic or nuclear weapons. It Putin used such on Ukraine the whole world would scream, but Putin's friends like China and North Korea would stand with him regardless. And if Putin decides to go this route, it breaks the history of not using nukes that has lasted since 8/9/45, and would give a bit more seeming acceptance to Israel using the same on Teheran. Interesting times.

 

[Ματθιας]

Indeed. His plan seems, well, unsound. And the below figures are from December.

WASHINGTON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday.

The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia’s military modernization by 18 years, the source said.

reuters.com

Here's a report from April:

The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.

The actual number of Russian deaths is likely to be much higher.
Our analysis does not include the deaths of militia in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk - in eastern Ukraine. If they were added, the death toll on the Russian side would be even higher.

Russia'''s meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead

"Sources"!? Who are these "sources"? They're always anonymous aren't they. Frankly, I don't believe anything coming from the US .gov or the mockingbird news media?

If all those losses are true, then why is Russia STILL grinding away and taking territory?

BTW what are the WIA and KIA numbers on the Ukrainian side? Strange how western "news" media never reports on that.

So, Russia got a tiny fraction of it's territory invaded, then what? It's not going to change the final outcome of the war.

The fact is, this war needs to stop while Ukraine still has a nation and a male population. But, the US/NATO will fight this proxy war to the last Ukrainian. GO Ukraine!!

 

[biku324]

As for, I prefer nations that fight for their own freedom rather than those which fight to steal land and subjugate populations.

 

[Ματθιας]

As for, I prefer nations that fight for their own freedom rather than those which fight to steal land and subjugate populations.

So you're on the side of the local populations of A-stan and Iraq who were fighting for their freedom, land and didn't want to be subjected by the US? From their perspective, they saw/see the US as an invader and oppressor. I could be wrong, though.

Add Somalia in, too.

 

[ladder13]

Follow the money paying close attention to govt contractors.

 

[smoothshooter]

What Putin wants is a land corridor down eastern Ukraine to build highways and railroads for access to a warm-weather seaport on or near the Mediterranean Ocean.
None of the talking heads in the mainstream news media outlets will mention that for some reason.

 

[jpage]

Putin claims he wants to acquire Ukrainian land for peace. It looks like he'll now face the humiliating prospect of having to swap Ukrainian land for Russian land to get his "peace". His "special military operation" has failed from Day One, and Ukraine's invasion has now added to that. I would like to think that machinations are now ongoing inside or outside of the Kremlin to remove him from office.

Using a fifth-floor window

 

[swsig]

Using a fifth-floor window

I'd go higher than that.

 

[LVSteve]

If all those losses are true, then why is Russia STILL grinding away and taking territory?

BTW what are the WIA and KIA numbers on the Ukrainian side? Strange how western "news" media never reports on that.

The Russians are still grinding away and taking territory because they are Russians. You cannot equate our sensitivity to casualties to what goes on in other countries. If 5% of the stuff I have seen on various Twitter feeds involving explosive drones driving into people were to happen to US forces somewhere, you would have Vietnam era sized demonstrations to get us out.

Their leaders don't think like us, it's that simple. Should their public object, they get told by guys in balaclavas to sit down, face front, and STHU. What the media and our leaders never say out loud is that Russia is now a failed democracy. Sure, they have elections and all that, but a 'bad' election result can soon be fixed. See: Belarus, Venezuela, Myanmar etc.

As for Ukrainian casualties, I agree, they are kept on the down low by our media. Root around the BBC News website or Reuters and you will find estimates, but they are all over the map. In November 2022 the US estimate was 100,000 on each side, but I suspect that was largely guesswork. Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides

Zelensky said point blank in February 2024 that Ukraine has lost 35,000 dead, but I wouldn't be surprised to find it's 50% more. This is the 21st century, so think optics. Ukraine war: Zelensky says 31,000 troops killed since Russia'''s full-scale invasion

Russian casualties? I doubt even the Russians know. If we go by the old adage that it takes a 3:1 ratio to perform a successful invasion of a peer country, then we can estimate Russian losses to be at least 3x that of the Ukraine, given their lack of success. Using Zelensky's number, that puts Russian dead in six figures.

 

[Ματθιας]

The Russians are still grinding away and taking territory because they are Russians. You cannot equate our sensitivity to casualties to what goes on in other countries. If 5% of the stuff I have seen on various Twitter feeds involving explosive drones driving into people were to happen to US forces somewhere, you would have Vietnam era sized demonstrations to get us out.

Their leaders don't think like us, it's that simple. Should their public object, they get told by guys in balaclavas to sit down, face front, and STHU. What the media and our leaders never say out loud is that Russia is now a failed democracy. Sure, they have elections and all that, but a 'bad' election result can soon be fixed. See: Belarus, Venezuela, Myanmar etc.

As for Ukrainian casualties, I agree, they are kept on the down low by our media. Root around the BBC News website or Reuters and you will find estimates, but they are all over the map. In November 2022 the US estimate was 100,000 on each side, but I suspect that was largely guesswork. Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides

Zelensky said point blank in February 2024 that Ukraine has lost 35,000 dead, but I wouldn't be surprised to find its 50% more. This is the 21st century, so think optics. Ukraine war: Zelensky says 31,000 troops killed since Russia'''s full-scale invasion

Russian casualties? I doubt even the Russians know. If we go by the old adage that it takes a 3:1 ratio to perform a successful invasion of a peer country, then we can estimate Russian losses to be at least 3x that of the Ukraine, given their lack of success. Using Zelensky's number, that puts Russian dead in six figures.

I agree Russians are willing to accept casualties.

The point I'm making is that the OP is saying 90% casualties for the invading force. NO military can sustain 90% casualties and keep an offensive going. NONE.

Do you believe anything from Zelensky? I don't.

The US/NATO will fight until the last Ukrainian as there's too much money involved to quit now! When it's politically untenable the US will abandon them. Zelensky knows as long as the war keeps going so does he.

Ive read that the average age of the fighting man on the Ukrainian side is 40+ years old. If that's true a whole generation of young men are dead. Again, this war needs to end.

Sorry, I'm not reading anything from the mockingbird news that lies about everything.

 

[HOUSTON RICK]

Stalin must be rolling in his grave.

 

[Heinz]

What Putin wants is a land corridor down eastern Ukraine to build highways and railroads for access to a warm-weather seaport on or near the Mediterranean Ocean.
None of the talking heads in the mainstream news media outlets will mention that for some reason.

The Mediterranean is a "SEA" Putin would get access to the Black Sea and then through the Bosphorus Straights to the Aegean Sea, and then to the Mediterranean Sea.

But your point that he wants access to ports that can stay open in the winter is correct. Geography is important

 

[biku324]

So you're on the side of the local populations of A-stan and Iraq who were fighting for their freedom, land and didn't want to be subjected by the US? From their perspective, they saw/see the US as an invader and oppressor. I could be wrong, though.

Add Somalia in, too.

No and no. In both Afghanistan, and in similar ways Somalia, the vast majority of people just want to live decently to their standards; in neither can they because of virulent, heavily armed, and inhumane groups that would rather get their followers to die and to kill as many of those who aren't 'with them' as they feel like killing than to be out of power. Millions suffer because of the actions and beliefs of tens of thousands who could care less about other people's lives.

Don't read about this; go see.

 

[biku324]

I agree Russians are willing to accept casualties.

1. The point I'm making is that the OP is saying 90% casualties for the invading force. NO military can sustain 90% casualties and keep an offensive going. NONE.

2. Do you believe anything from Zelensky? I don't.

3. The US/NATO will fight until the last Ukrainian as there's too much money involved to quit now! When it's politically untenable the US will abandon them. Zelensky knows as long as the war keeps going so does he.

4. Ive read that the average age of the fighting man on the Ukrainian side is 40+ years old. If that's true a whole generation of young men are dead. Again, this war needs to end.

Sorry, I'm not reading anything from the mockingbird news that lies about everything.

1. Read carefully - I said nothing of the kind. Nothing. The 90% figure of dead or wounded in the report is about numbers Russians had when they invaded compared with total casualties over time; they've been replacing and increasing numbers constantly since. Including using prisoners. And raising the highest conscription age to 70.

2. "I don't need a ride; I need ammo." - President Zelenskyy when the Russians invaded his country and we offered to get him out of Kyiv.

3. The EU, especially the Baltics and Poland, then also Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia, are in immediately in precisely the same danger as Ukraine. That is precisely why you find volunteers from former Soviet countries fighting alongside Ukrainians in the war that is rather than wait to get subjugated at Russia's convenience.

4. No. Ukraine has 476,000 males reaching military age as of 2024; Russia has 1,275,000. These estimates vary slightly by source - here's just one open source estimate. Population Reaching Military Age Annually by Country (2024)

 

[Ματθιας]

No and no. In both Afghanistan, and in similar ways Somalia, the vast majority of people just want to live decently to their standards; in neither can they because of virulent, heavily armed, and inhumane groups that would rather get their followers to die and to kill as many of those who aren't 'with them' as they feel like killing than to be out of power. Millions suffer because of the actions and beliefs of tens of thousands who could care less about other people's lives.

Don't read about this; go see.

Yeah, I guess that's why the US government abandoned those countries as soon as it got politically untenable.

 

[biku324]

We tried for 20 years in Afghanistan; we still assist Somalia. You might bother to find out. CJTF - HOA

 

[Ματθιας]

1. Read carefully - I said nothing of the kind. Nothing. The 90% figure of dead or wounded in the report is about numbers Russians had when they invaded compared with total casualties over time; they've been replacing and increasing numbers constantly since. Including using prisoners. And raising the highest conscription age to 70.

The Russians invaded with about 80-90K.
BTW Ukraine was/is using prisoners. Let's not forget about the AZOF battalion. Both sides are dirty.

2. "I don't need a ride; I need ammo." - President Zelenskyy when the Russians invaded his country and we offered to get him out of Kyiv.

And..? As long as it is politically tenable the US will back Zelensky and he will stay in power and alive. BTW, How did those elections go? I heard they were canceled.

3. The EU, especially the Baltics and Poland, then also Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia, are in immediately in precisely the same danger as Ukraine. That is precisely why you find volunteers from former Soviet countries fighting alongside Ukrainians in the war that is rather than wait to get subjugated at Russia's convenience.

Then, you have BRICS with half the world's population siding with with Russia, China and the rest over the West/NATO. And they're adding more nations to the fold as they de-dollarize. How that petro-dollar doing? Is it still dead?

4. No. Ukraine has 476,000 males reaching military age as of 2024; Russia has 1,275,000. These estimates vary slightly by source - here's just one open source estimate. Population Reaching Military Age Annually by Country (2024)

. How many of those males are going to be scarified for a war that they will not win. Again, we will fight this proxy war to the last Ukrainian. This war needs to end while Ukraine still has a county and males.

 

[Mike SC Hunter]

What Putin wants is a land corridor down eastern Ukraine to build highways and railroads for access to a warm-weather seaport on or near the Mediterranean Ocean.
None of the talking heads in the mainstream news media outlets will mention that for some reason.

You Sir are 1000% correct.

 

[Ματθιας]

We tried for 20 years in Afghanistan; we still assist Somalia. You might bother find out. CJTF - HOA

I don't need to read anything. The US. gov straight up abandoned them.

In fact, US military got chased out of Somalia. Remember the bodies of US service members being dragged on the streets shown on the nightly news? I do. The US pulled out soon after. The whole world saw that. That's a fact.

 

[biku324]

So - had Ukraine rolled over for Putin in 2022, they could be comforted because by 2038, members of the UN Security Council would tell Russia to get out of the illegally seized territories for the 16th time. Just as they did for Georgia yesterday. 403 Forbidden

 

[Exmilcop]

I could write a book on the effectiveness of Russian propaganda and disinformation. BS "fact" #1: It's a "proxy" war initiated by the US and NATO. Anyone who has studied Ukrainian/Russian history knows that Russia has attempted to eradicate Ukraine, it's language, it's culture, and subjugate and "Russify" it's population since Catherine the Great. This is just one more excercise in genocide by an amoral monster who wishes to re-create his "Russki Mir".
BS "fact" #2: The Orange revolution was fomented by the CIA.
Russia put this lie out there because unless Putin could find someone or something to blame, he would have to accept the fact that Ukrainians are NOT Russians and reject being part of that decaying, barbaric, ignorant culture to forge closer ties to Europe and the European union with whom they have much more in common.
BS "fact" #3: Zelensky is getting rich off this war. Last year, he welcomed a team of independent auditors to come in look at the books and determine if the money given to Ukraine was spent in accordance with the conditions of the gift. They also determined that sale of donated arms on the black market was a lie and very effective Russian disinformation ploy.
If unchecked, Russia plans to totally eradicate Ukraine and re-write history. Look at the actions of Russia in the occupied territories! Rape, torture, murder, kidnapped children, looting, brainwashing, and crimes against humanity. Kyiv Independent put out a list of destroyed hospitals, schools, malls, train stations, universities, churches, and looted museums. What military purpose is served by wasting ordnance on such targets? NONE! Never mind the total destruction of towns and villages and the ongoing bomb and rocket attacks on civilian homes and infrastructure. I could go on and on but to anyone swallowing the BS, PLEASE do your research. Look for objective media like Ground news and look at the reporting history for accuracy. BTW, I'm a Ukrainian Canadian who grew up immersed in the both cultures and studied the history both scholastically and personally of Ukraine. I'm also ex military with a background in Military Intelligence as well as a life long student of military history.

 

[Dave_n]

One should go back to roughly 1922 time when the Russians (read Stalin's Red Army) forcibly reminded the Ukraine that it was part of "Holy Russia". Figures range around 5m dead/missing at the end. And you wonder why Ukrainians do not like Russians? Dave_n

 

[Exmilcop]

One should go back to roughly 1922 time when the Russians (read Stalin's Red Army) forcibly reminded the Ukraine that it was part of "Holy Russia". Figures range around 5m dead/missing at the end. And you wonder why Ukrainians do not like Russians? Dave_n

You refer, of course, to the Holodomor (death by starvation). That 5 million is generally accepted as the lowest number. My maternal grandmother's small village ceased to exist after the terror. Everyone she knew in Ukraine died and the village was so small that the Russians just razed it to the ground and plowed it over into one of the big collectives. Also, many people in the west fail to grasp that Stalin moved Russians into the vacant lands so the demographic would be predominately Russian rather than Ukrainian. Exactly what Russia is doing in Crimea today just like they did in the Donbas, BTW. Oh, just as an aside, BS fact #4: Persecution of the Russian speaking people of the Donbas. OMG, where do I begin on that. The only restriction that Kyiv placed on the Russian language was educational. Since it was Ukrainian land, the government said all schools will teach in Ukrainian and the official government business will be conducted in Ukrainian BECAUSE IT'S THE NATIONAL LANGUAGE!!! DUH!!!! No one was forbidden to speak or teach or publish in Russian since almost everyone spoke Russian anyway! No one persecuted Russians or Russian speakers. My wife is Polish. She was taught in Russian in school and forbidden to speak Polish on school property. She spoke Polish at home with her folks. Russia is currently militarizing and brainwashing Ukrainian children in the schools in the occupied lands. Ukrainian citizens are forced to accept Russian citizenship and when the men do, they're mobilized and sent to the front. The Russians think forcing ethnic Ukrainians to fight other ethnic Ukrainians is hilarious.