LVSteve
Member
There are multiple reports of large numbers of USAF tanker aircraft heading to Europe. How much is intent and how much is "the art of the deal" we will learn in due course.
WELL THE STINKY STUFF JUST HIT THE AIR CIRCULATION DEVICE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
- Thread starter robertrwalsh
- Start date
- Status
My crystal balls are a bit foggy. The only thing that I would be willing to speculate on is that a lot of people will make a lot of money selling things that go bump in the night.
venomballistics
Member
The six day war says that Israel don't need proxies.
They are keenly aware of their situation. It's the same situation they've had for as long as I could remember. They are no less ready for a fight today than they were when the whole of the region tried to gang up on them and got educated in just under a week.
This is day 4 and the conflagration is escalating.
The Six-day war was decades ago and in no way resembles a standoff missile and air duel with 1000 miles between adversaries. It's a different world.
Any mention of the Six-Day War should also include mention of 34 US sailors killed and 171 wounded by the IDF in inernational waters off Egypt.
The Six-day war was decades ago and in no way resembles a standoff missile and air duel with 1000 miles between adversaries. It's a different world.
Any mention of the Six-Day War should also include mention of 34 US sailors killed and 171 wounded by the IDF in inernational waters off Egypt.
sometimes it feels like running the hurry up offense with the 2 minute warning in sight.
Why don't you save that drivel for Facebook? Do us all a favor..................
Reeking irrelevancies in 2025. More Facebook drivel.............
I heard that the Iran major city's are with out water and sewer. That ladies and gentleman is the hole card. Time is on our side.
Deke Thornton
Member
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2025
- Messages
- 42
- Reaction score
- 111
Which is what makes it suicidal for Iran to do. You can murder civilians all day long and no one cares, but if you disrupt the global economy heads are gonna roll with a quickness. Countries around the world will fall all over each other to take a crack at Iran if they do that, and the Ayatollah strikes me as the "crazy but not stupid" type.
Agreed! A nuclear Iran is bad news no matter what, though.
It's both. The US may not do the "speak softly" part anymore, but we mastered the art of the "big stick" a long time ago.
Toting around those heavy $20,000,000 BB's are terrible on fuel mileage.
Well since our leaders are holding hands with the Saudis who financed 9-11 I'm not holding my breath for any "fix"....
Hey, it was only 15 of 19 attackers....besides, they have money.
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2021
- Messages
- 5,277
- Reaction score
- 9,194
Tic tock the clock is running…..
It has been reported that Israel has destroyed over a third of Iran's missile launchers and virtually all of their air defenses. If this is true, Iran is defeated, and they know it. It has also been reported that Iran has sent word to the US and to Israel asking for a ceasefire and peace negotiations to start immediately. Supposedly also asking for guarantees that the US will not attack them. Truth, fiction, exaggeration? Who knows, but if true it again points to Iran knowing they are going to lose this war.
Maybe; at least one regional open source intelligence organization suggests if Iran fires 50-70 missiles at Israel per day, air defenses will noticeably degrade by Day 12, and reach degradation by Day 18. If they believe this, bet some well-placed Iranians believe it as well. https://english.almayadeen.net/news...israeli-missile-defenses-may-crumble-by-day-1
The source could be worth anything or nothing. They are a pro-Arab network and no friend of Persians. They're not Israel-friendly either.
The source could be worth anything or nothing. They are a pro-Arab network and no friend of Persians. They're not Israel-friendly either.
Deke Thornton
Member
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2025
- Messages
- 42
- Reaction score
- 111
Entirely possible, AFAIK there's never been a prolonged exchange at this scale before, so I guess we'll see how deep Israel's stocks of air defense missiles go and how quickly the US can resupply them.
Don't forget though, that the Israeli Air Force is operating over Iran essentially unopposed. The IDF can do a LOT of damage in 12/18 days when no one is shooting back at them, and it seems they have a strategic plan that is still unfolding- the initial strikes on nuclear sites and air defense were just the opening salvo. Maybe Iran's ballistic missile capability is lower on the target list and they just haven't gotten to it yet, given that it wouldn't be a critical problem until day 12 or so. I'm guessing the Israelis are just as aware of Iranian capabilities as Arab news sources are, so we'll see if their math comes out right.
As always though, the Mike Tyson rule applies- "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."
Looks like the BB's are getting primed.
Ali Kookameme and generals.
Ali Kookameme and generals.
Last edited:
Still need to stop their naval threat and we need to back a popular uprising.
LVSteve
Member
This "magazine depth" discussion was brought up by Ukraine recently. Events there have shown that the Western battle model of "a few precision strikes and we all go home for Christmas" doesn't fly against a determined opponent with a large number of less discerning, but much cheaper expendables. Hence the old gag of "quantity has a quality all of its own".
Somebody once explained it to me with regard to SAM systems using basic statistics. The West builds specifies and builds very expensive systems that guarantee 90% success with a single shot. The Soviets built systems good for a single shot hit probability of 65-70%, but they cost 1/10 of the equivalent Western system. Engagement doctrine was they ALWAYS launched missiles two at a time, which gave them a better than 80% chance of a hit...and they still had 5X our number of expendables. Wanna bet your backside on that 10% difference of kill probability when the RAW gear is screaming and there are smoke trails everywhere you look? Yes, I am aware of the video showing an F-16 driver evading multiple SAMs before dropping his bombs, but that guy was special.
Actually, the 5X number may be an underestimate. As the Warsaw Pact collapsed, all kinds of weapons caches were revealed, some of which contained 1000s of SA-8 and SA-6 missiles. I doubt even the Soviets and their satellites had an accurate inventory, especially as they never did their cost estimates the way we do in the West.
So Kookameme threatened big things about to happen. It won't be long now before we get involved. Maybe loan the B2 keys to an Israeli pilot? 
DWalt
Member
I was thinking exactly the same thing. Set up an armed B2 "Courtesy visit" to an Israeli AFB, and leave the key in the ignition.So Kookameme threatened big things about to happen. It won't be long now before we get involved. Maybe loan the B2 keys to an Israeli pilot?
Memories....a stack of small bills, the smell of sweat and spilled beer, 2 brass poles. Joe
LVSteve
Member
Further to my post above about magazine depth, how about this piece saying Europe has decided "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" when it comes to attack drones.
www.twz.com
Inspired By Ukraine War, Europe Is Developing Shahed-Style One-Way Attack Drones
European missile-maker MBDA is enlisting an automotive manufacturer to ensure the kamikaze drones can be rapidly built in mass. European missile-maker MBDA is enlisting an automotive manufacturer to ensure the kamikaze drones can be rapidly built in mass.
www.twz.com
Did everyone make it through the night?
I'm not up yet. Check back with me later.
DWalt
Member
I believe the tipping point has been reached where artillery can, and probably will be, largely replaced by drones. Far greater range and accuracy, more mobile, and cost effective. Even smaller countries are getting into the act. I read that Turkey is now building very cheap and effective drones in quantity. The aforementioned MBDA is already making drones in France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK.
Last edited:
Deke Thornton
Member
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2025
- Messages
- 42
- Reaction score
- 111
It's hard to shoot down an artillery shell, though. You also can't electronically jam a 155 round in flight, and they're less weather-sensitive than drones.
Tactically, I think tube artillery still has a place on the modern battlefield. It is however clear that drones are now officially a thing.
Deke Thornton
Member
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2025
- Messages
- 42
- Reaction score
- 111
What concerns me at this point is if Iran just packs whatever half-finished nuclear material they have into ballistic missiles to make a bunch of halfassed dirty bombs. That will 100% trigger US involvement and the fall of the Iranian state, but that's the danger of wiping out too much of your adversary's command structure- you wind up with people making decisions way above their pay grade that they lack the ability to understand the larger implications of.
Of course, Mossad may have already taken this into consideration. Wiping out an Iranian dirty bomb on the ground in Iran would be icing on top of an already delicious cake.
And, while I'm getting all Tom Clancy, it has occurred to me that while Israel may not be in a position to destroy the Iranian enrichment site from the air, they may have created conditions where they could do it on the ground with an Eben-Emael style coup de main. It sounds insane of course, but if anybody is crazy enough to try it, it's the IDF.
Last edited:
I am specifically concerned about our troops at al Asad, Iraq, Union III, Baghdad, and Nineweh Province, Iraq, and at US Embassy, Baghdad. All are within easy mortar, 107 & 240mm rocket, and complex attack range of Iranian proxies (Privately Mobilized Forces or PMFs, armed and well-trained since 2014) and within easy range of small ballistic missiles.
Apparently there was some truth to the above OSINT.
Israel's missile defenses running short as Iran fires hypersonics: Report
Arrow interceptor shortage exposed as Tehran fires hypersonic missiles at Tel Aviv, prompting U.S. to weigh deeper involvement.
www.newsweek.com
- Status
