Well since our leaders are holding hands with the Saudis who financed 9-11 I'm not holding my breath for any "fix"....
WELL THE STINKY STUFF JUST HIT THE AIR CIRCULATION DEVICE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
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Hey, it was only 15 of 19 attackers....besides, they have money.
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Tic tock the clock is running…..
It has been reported that Israel has destroyed over a third of Iran's missile launchers and virtually all of their air defenses. If this is true, Iran is defeated, and they know it. It has also been reported that Iran has sent word to the US and to Israel asking for a ceasefire and peace negotiations to start immediately. Supposedly also asking for guarantees that the US will not attack them. Truth, fiction, exaggeration? Who knows, but if true it again points to Iran knowing they are going to lose this war.
Maybe; at least one regional open source intelligence organization suggests if Iran fires 50-70 missiles at Israel per day, air defenses will noticeably degrade by Day 12, and reach degradation by Day 18. If they believe this, bet some well-placed Iranians believe it as well. https://english.almayadeen.net/news...israeli-missile-defenses-may-crumble-by-day-1
The source could be worth anything or nothing. They are a pro-Arab network and no friend of Persians. They're not Israel-friendly either.
The source could be worth anything or nothing. They are a pro-Arab network and no friend of Persians. They're not Israel-friendly either.
Deke Thornton
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Entirely possible, AFAIK there's never been a prolonged exchange at this scale before, so I guess we'll see how deep Israel's stocks of air defense missiles go and how quickly the US can resupply them.
Don't forget though, that the Israeli Air Force is operating over Iran essentially unopposed. The IDF can do a LOT of damage in 12/18 days when no one is shooting back at them, and it seems they have a strategic plan that is still unfolding- the initial strikes on nuclear sites and air defense were just the opening salvo. Maybe Iran's ballistic missile capability is lower on the target list and they just haven't gotten to it yet, given that it wouldn't be a critical problem until day 12 or so. I'm guessing the Israelis are just as aware of Iranian capabilities as Arab news sources are, so we'll see if their math comes out right.
As always though, the Mike Tyson rule applies- "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."
Looks like the BB’s are getting primed.
Ali Kookameme and generals.
Ali Kookameme and generals.
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Still need to stop their naval threat and we need to back a popular uprising.
LVSteve
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This "magazine depth" discussion was brought up by Ukraine recently. Events there have shown that the Western battle model of "a few precision strikes and we all go home for Christmas" doesn't fly against a determined opponent with a large number of less discerning, but much cheaper expendables. Hence the old gag of "quantity has a quality all of its own".
Somebody once explained it to me with regard to SAM systems using basic statistics. The West builds specifies and builds very expensive systems that guarantee 90% success with a single shot. The Soviets built systems good for a single shot hit probability of 65-70%, but they cost 1/10 of the equivalent Western system. Engagement doctrine was they ALWAYS launched missiles two at a time, which gave them a better than 80% chance of a hit...and they still had 5X our number of expendables. Wanna bet your backside on that 10% difference of kill probability when the RAW gear is screaming and there are smoke trails everywhere you look? Yes, I am aware of the video showing an F-16 driver evading multiple SAMs before dropping his bombs, but that guy was special.
Actually, the 5X number may be an underestimate. As the Warsaw Pact collapsed, all kinds of weapons caches were revealed, some of which contained 1000s of SA-8 and SA-6 missiles. I doubt even the Soviets and their satellites had an accurate inventory, especially as they never did their cost estimates the way we do in the West.
So Kookameme threatened big things about to happen. It won’t be long now before we get involved. Maybe loan the B2 keys to an Israeli pilot? 
DWalt
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I was thinking exactly the same thing. Set up an armed B2 “Courtesy visit” to an Israeli AFB, and leave the key in the ignition.So Kookameme threatened big things about to happen. It won’t be long now before we get involved. Maybe loan the B2 keys to an Israeli pilot?
Memories....a stack of small bills, the smell of sweat and spilled beer, 2 brass poles. Joe
LVSteve
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Further to my post above about magazine depth, how about this piece saying Europe has decided "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" when it comes to attack drones.
www.twz.com
Inspired By Ukraine War, Europe Is Developing Shahed-Style One-Way Attack Drones
European missile-maker MBDA is enlisting an automotive manufacturer to ensure the kamikaze drones can be rapidly built in mass. European missile-maker MBDA is enlisting an automotive manufacturer to ensure the kamikaze drones can be rapidly built in mass.
www.twz.com
Did everyone make it through the night?
I'm not up yet. Check back with me later.
DWalt
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I believe the tipping point has been reached where artillery can, and probably will be, largely replaced by drones. Far greater range and accuracy, more mobile, and cost effective. Even smaller countries are getting into the act. I read that Turkey is now building very cheap and effective drones in quantity. The aforementioned MBDA is already making drones in France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK.
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Deke Thornton
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It's hard to shoot down an artillery shell, though. You also can't electronically jam a 155 round in flight, and they're less weather-sensitive than drones.
Tactically, I think tube artillery still has a place on the modern battlefield. It is however clear that drones are now officially a thing.
Deke Thornton
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What concerns me at this point is if Iran just packs whatever half-finished nuclear material they have into ballistic missiles to make a bunch of halfassed dirty bombs. That will 100% trigger US involvement and the fall of the Iranian state, but that's the danger of wiping out too much of your adversary's command structure- you wind up with people making decisions way above their pay grade that they lack the ability to understand the larger implications of.
Of course, Mossad may have already taken this into consideration. Wiping out an Iranian dirty bomb on the ground in Iran would be icing on top of an already delicious cake.
And, while I'm getting all Tom Clancy, it has occurred to me that while Israel may not be in a position to destroy the Iranian enrichment site from the air, they may have created conditions where they could do it on the ground with an Eben-Emael style coup de main. It sounds insane of course, but if anybody is crazy enough to try it, it's the IDF.
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I am specifically concerned about our troops at al Asad, Iraq, Union III, Baghdad, and Nineweh Province, Iraq, and at US Embassy, Baghdad. All are within easy mortar, 107 & 240mm rocket, and complex attack range of Iranian proxies (Privately Mobilized Forces or PMFs, armed and well-trained since 2014) and within easy range of small ballistic missiles.
Apparently there was some truth to the above OSINT.
Israel's missile defenses running short as Iran fires hypersonics: Report
Arrow interceptor shortage exposed as Tehran fires hypersonic missiles at Tel Aviv, prompting U.S. to weigh deeper involvement.
www.newsweek.com
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